j_hungary
Professional
That's not really going to happen.The U.S. never had the cards; the Chinese learned and learned fast post the Russo-Ukraine War and the first Trade War 1.0 [Trump]. This whole move by the U.S. was poorly done, and in the end, the U.S. has folded.
The only thing left is the replacement of the SWIFT, which China is slowly rolling out.
If China wants to staff a system that rival SWIFT, they needed 2 things.
1.) A freely tradable RMB
2.) Most of the world on its side.
1 is a non-starter, there are no way China at this point would float RMB, that will cause serious inflation as there are strong, REALLY strong demand on RMB, and Chinese Central bank is intentionally keeping it low circulation.
2. means you need at least EU and 1 of the other 3 (Pound, JPY and AUD) to be on Chinese side. I don't see how this going to get to that point, but even with the current charge from Trump, the relationship between aforementioned country isn't as bad as it portraited to be. I would see investment will drop between EU, Japan et el, but not at a point total separation or even major separation, I also see increase Chinese deal with the aforementioned country, but probably the solution for UK, Japan and EU would be invest in new market, instead of sticking with the old 2.
The term US does not have the card is false, and deceptive, indeed US made a big mistake by going on everyone at once (including our own allies) but US still hold a significant chunk on financial and currency market that Chinese (or just about anyone else) depends on. As said before, even the closet contender EU, they would have to triple their currency circulation in order to take half the US currency market, and they are at 20 or 21%, while China is at 1.6.






