Iranian Chill Thread

[Persian Gulf]

Data from Grok
View attachment 113650

the real question is what those numbers would be without the revolution. and that we can never know but only speculate about

 

[Persian Gulf]

2029 - 50th anniversary of the Islamic Republic.

Some weapon systems waiting to be unveiled until 2029:

1) anti-ballistic missile defense system - 2026
2) Qaem 105 - 2025
3) Qaem 110 - 2026
4) Qaem 120 - 2027
5) supersonic cruise missile - 2026
6) Shahed 216 - 2026
7) Loghman class destroyer - 2026
8) Simorgh-2 - 2025
9) Sarir SLV - 2026
10) Sarir Heavy - 2028
11) Sourush-1 - 2029

And then they have to unveil something special on the 50th anniversary of the Islamic Republic

even if they unveil the ABM system there is no guarantee it will enter into service. IRGC-ASF revealed Mehran but it has not been deployed. Bavar-373 was unveiled as complete in 2016 but only now are they starting they deploy the first battery very slowly after further testing and upgrades since 2016

the Qaem timeline is too fast. if any launch fails they will need an additional 6-18 months to resolve the problems (like with the first orbital launch attempt of Qaem 100) before moving on to the next version

Loghman class destroyer in 2036 maybe

and I doubt I will see Soroush in my lifetime. I will settle for Simorgh-2 and Qaem-105 by 2026

 

[Flotilla]

even if they unveil the ABM system there is no guarantee it will enter into service. IRGC-ASF revealed Mehran but it has not been deployed. Bavar-373 was unveiled as complete in 2016 but only now are they starting they deploy the first battery very slowly after further testing and upgrades since 2016

the Qaem timeline is too fast. if any launch fails they will need an additional 6-18 months to resolve the problems (like with the first orbital launch attempt of Qaem 100) before moving on to the next version

Loghman class destroyer in 2036 maybe

and I doubt I will see Soroush in my lifetime. I will settle for Simorgh-2 and Qaem-105 by 2026

Because of the engagement in a hypothetical new deal, you can discard any SLV. But the rest it is bitter truth.

 

[Tijani]

Data from Grok
View attachment 113650

People should really pay more attention to these developments before they start their incessant rants concerning the Islamic Republic so called failures. Few countries, if any, in the world can match these metrics. Last I checked, a few years back, only China came close. The progress is even more impressive considering that it was achieved under the most draconian sanctions placed on a state until recently. Kudos the IRI! We who know SALUTE you!

 

[Tijani]

the real question is what those numbers would be without the revolution. and that we can never know but only speculate about

We know only what we know. The rest is as you stated just figments. Iran has done well. Very well considering from where it started.

 

[Persian Gulf]

We know only what we know. The rest is as you stated just figments. Iran has done well. Very well considering from where it started.

very well? in 1970s and 1980s our GDP was 6x Israel's GDP and 3x Turkey's GDP

now it is smaller than Israel's GDP and around 1/3 of Turkey's GDP

 

[Persian Gulf]

UN 2100 population projections:

• Iran: 77 million (down from 89 million)
• Afghanistan: 97 million (up from 45 million)
• Pakistan: 586 million (up from 245 million)
• Iraq: 123 million (up from 45 million)
• Turkey: 95 million (up from 88 million)

These are UN projections. INHE uses a different model that forecasts Iran will fall into the "low-fertility trap" (like South Korea and Japan).

INHE's projection for Iran's population in 2100? 31 million.

1) education driven fertility collapse: Fertility in places like Tehran is already around 1.3–1.4. IHME assumes that pattern spreads nationally.

2) urbanisation trends: Iran is 75% urban, and expected to rise. urban environments consistently correlate with lower birth rates.

3) delayed and non-marriage patterns.

4) skepticism towards pro-natalist policies. assumes limited success from tax breaks etc citing global examples (Japan, South Korea, parts of Europe) where huge investments in fertility incentives barely moved the needle.

 

[ShapurII]

UN 2100 population projections:

• Iran: 77 million (down from 89 million)
• Afghanistan: 97 million (up from 45 million)
• Pakistan: 586 million (up from 245 million)
• Iraq: 123 million (up from 45 million)
• Turkey: 95 million (up from 88 million)

These are UN projections. INHE uses a different model that forecasts Iran will fall into the "low-fertility trap" (like South Korea and Japan).

INHE's projection for Iran's population in 2100? 31 million.

1) education driven fertility collapse: Fertility in places like Tehran is already around 1.3–1.4. IHME assumes that pattern spreads nationally.

2) urbanisation trends: Iran is 75% urban, and expected to rise. urban environments consistently correlate with lower birth rates.

3) delayed and non-marriage patterns.

4) skepticism towards pro-natalist policies. assumes limited success from tax breaks etc citing global examples (Japan, South Korea, parts of Europe) where huge investments in fertility incentives barely moved the needle.

31 million people is off, but 77 million sounds reasonable.

We have 4-6 million Iranians that live abroad. We should do something to help them return to Iran. Also, we need to open the country to the world. If negotiations with the US succeed to mend our ties with the US, millions of new tourists (tourists from places other than Afghanistan, Pakistan or Iraq) would enter the country and that would positively impact the young population of the country who feel isolated and depressed.

Obviously, when a large part of your population suffers from hopelessness and depression, and they either are unemployed or are paid super low with little to no job security, they won't consider marriage and forming a family.

On the other hand, the problem with large cities is the housing prices. Housing prices sometimes occupy more than 50% of a family's income. That's assuming both the husband and the wife work to put bread on the table.
All studies have shown beyond doubt that when the family income depends on the wife, fertility rate drops significantly because you are putting too much pressure and too many responsibilities on the wife. If housing prices are lowed to 20% of the income, then we will see an increase in fertility rate. In short, as long as Iran is heavily sanctioned and housing prices are soaring and increasing by 60% each year, the fertility rate will only drop further in cities like Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, etc.

 

[Tijani]

very well? in 1970s and 1980s our GDP was 6x Israel's GDP and 3x Turkey's GDP

now it is smaller than Israel's GDP and around 1/3 of Turkey's GDP

I understand your figures but the reality is that the zionist entity's and Türkiye's economies are smoke and mirrors, especially when counted in dollar terms. One is a beggar state while the other is drowning in zionist debt dollar trap. Gdp figures matters very little when your main economic trading partner threatens to destroy your economy in case of dissent. Please refer to the case of Russia being thought of only a gas station that would collapse immediately once the West refused to buy it's raw materials. We learned that natural resource based economy matters way more than one orientated on services and stock manipulation.

Iran in comparison is a relatively self-sufficient and self sustainable economy built through four decades of maximum zionist western sanctions. I'm not saying Gdp is unimportant but it has to be put in perspective. Of course there's room for improvements but there's no way that Türkiye is a bigger economy than Iran. I was speaking to my brother in Türkiye yesterday and according to him the situation is so bad that most people can't even make ends meat. Certain things cost 20 times more than just six years ago when I was there last. Rent for a three bedroom apartment in Yalova was about 50 dollars then but now it's 1500 USD. Their currency is in free fall while almost all their debt is dollar denominated. Economic collapse without even any sanctions placed on the country. I won't even further comment on the squatter state because it's irrelevant.

Google Search

 

[ShapurII]

Iran in comparison is a relatively self-sufficient and self sustainable economy built through four decades of maximum zionist western sanctions.

The national currency of a self-sufficient and self-sustainable economy doesn't lose 99% of its value in 15 years and it doesn't regain 20% of its value after the news of negotiation with the US.

 

[Tijani]

UN 2100 population projections:

• Iran: 77 million (down from 89 million)
• Afghanistan: 97 million (up from 45 million)
• Pakistan: 586 million (up from 245 million)
• Iraq: 123 million (up from 45 million)
• Turkey: 95 million (up from 88 million)

These are UN projections. INHE uses a different model that forecasts Iran will fall into the "low-fertility trap" (like South Korea and Japan).

INHE's projection for Iran's population in 2100? 31 million.

1) education driven fertility collapse: Fertility in places like Tehran is already around 1.3–1.4. IHME assumes that pattern spreads nationally.

2) urbanisation trends: Iran is 75% urban, and expected to rise. urban environments consistently correlate with lower birth rates.

3) delayed and non-marriage patterns.

4) skepticism towards pro-natalist policies. assumes limited success from tax breaks etc citing global examples (Japan, South Korea, parts of Europe) where huge investments in fertility incentives barely moved the needle.

@ShapurII

UN projections are usually wrong by a factor of a approximately 30 percentage points. I asked DeepSeek: What was the UN forecast in 1955 for Iran's population in 2025

In **1955**, the United Nations made one of its earliest population projections in the report *"The Future Growth of World Population"* (1956). While the full country-level breakdowns from that time are not easily accessible in digital archives, we can reconstruct Iran's forecast based on historical trends and later UN revisions.

### **UN 1955 Forecast for Iran's Population in 2025**
Based on available data and academic reviews of early UN projections:
- **1955 Medium-Variant Forecast for Iran (2025)**: **~55–65 million**
- This assumed a gradual decline in fertility, similar to other developing nations at the time.
- **Actual 2025 Projection (UN 2022 Revision)**: **~89–90 million**

#### **Why the Underestimation?**
1. **Fertility Surge (1955–1985)**:
- Iran’s fertility rate **peaked at ~6.5 births per woman in the 1980s** (higher than expected in 1955 models).
- Post-1979 Revolution policies initially encouraged population growth.

2. **Slower Decline in Mortality**:
- Improved healthcare (e.g., child vaccination) reduced death rates faster than predicted.

3. **Unexpected Fertility Collapse (1990s–2000s)**:
- After 1990, Iran’s fertility rate **plummeted to ~2.0 by 2005**—one of the fastest drops ever recorded.
- This was due to **family planning programs**, female education, and urbanization.

### **Comparison: Iran’s Population Growth (1955–2025)**
| Year | Population | Notes |
|-------|-----------|-------|
| **1955** | ~19 million | Base year for UN forecast |
| **1975** | ~33 million | Rapid growth pre-revolution |
| **1995** | ~60 million | Fertility decline begins |
| **2015** | ~79 million | Near-replacement fertility (~2.1) |
| **2025** | ~89 million | Current UN projection |

### **Key Takeaways**
- The **1955 UN forecast underestimated Iran’s 2025 population by ~30–40%** due to unforeseen demographic swings.
- Iran’s **unique fertility collapse** after 1990 was not anticipated in early models.
- Today, Iran’s growth rate (~1.2% annually) is now **below the global average**.

 

[Tijani]

The national currency of a self-sufficient and self-sustainable economy doesn't lose 99% of its value in 15 years and it doesn't regain 20% of its value after the news of negotiation with the US.

Iran's currency didn't loose it's value, it's lost it's value in COMPARISON to the USD. That's a totally different matter. The Rial gained AGAINST the Dollar because of the segment of the economy that has the most to gain from the eventual lifting of sanctions. You need to differentiate between external currency fluctuations and internal purchasing power.
I can go and write an essay concerning this matter but I would digress.

 

[ShapurII]

Iran's currency didn't loose it's value, it's lost it's value in COMPARISON to the USD. That's a totally different matter. The Rial gained AGAINST the Dollar because of the segment of the economy that has the most to gain from the eventual lifting of sanctions. You need to differentiate between external currency fluctuations and internal purchasing power.
I can go and write an essay concerning this matter but I would digress.

If you think Iran's currency has lost its value in "COMPARISON" to the USD, then why is the price of all other foreign currencies and precious metals, or nearly every good, have increased proportionally?
It is the Iranian currency that has lost its value.

Please do not write an essay about something you are absolutely clueless about. Economy doesn't seem to be your strong suit.

 

[Tijani]

If you think Iran's currency has lost its value in "COMPARISON" to the USD, then why is the price of all other foreign currencies and precious metals, or nearly every good, have increased proportionally?
It is the Iranian currency that has lost its value.

Please do not write an essay about something you are absolutely clueless about. Economy doesn't seem to be your strong suit.

Actually economy is my strong suit. At least according to my degree and the the years I spent at uni.
Let me though answer your question. The simple answer is because the greenback is the world's reserve currency and henceforth ALL commodities are priced in the USD. Internal price fluctuations will occur even for commodities that are not priced in USD because of delicate thing call price elasticity.
Let me state once more. Currencies are only valuable in RELATION to other currencies. This is basic economics last I went to school. Might be that the study of economics has change since I graduated.
I'll skip the essay. Don't want to kill you with laughter

 

[ShapurII]

Actually economy is my strong suit. At least according to my degree and the the years I spent at uni.
Let me though answer your question. The simple answer is because the greenback is the world's reserve currency and henceforth ALL commodities are priced in the USD. Internal price fluctuations will occur even for commodities that are not priced in USD because of delicate thing call price elasticity.
Let me state once more. Currencies are only valuable in RELATION to other currencies. This is basic economics last I went to school. Might be that the study of economics has change since I graduated.
I'll skip the essay. Don't want to kill you with laughter

Sorry, I didn't mean to be rude. You think it is, but it is not.

Also, your answer is partially wrong. The US dollar is not the world's reserve currency. There is simply no such thing. It is the dominant reserve currency. Central banks in the world create a portfolio of different foreign currencies. Most central banks fill up most of their portfolio with the US dollar because energy is traded in USD. They also keep other currencies like Euro, RMB, etc. The US has maintained to be the world's dominant currency after the Bretton Woods conference due to their dominance over the energy, technology and military hardware markets, giving them the unique opportunity to manipulate international economies. If it weren't for the Petro-dollar agreement they have with the Arabs, the USD might've lost its dominant role decades ago but it is what it is now.

However, your other statement that currencies are only valuable in relation to others is correct and it again implies that it is the Iranian Rial that has devalued. The IRR has lost 99% of its value in 15 years.

The inflation of the Iranian Rial is now about 35%, making our currency the second worst performing currency in the world after the Lebanese Lira. Why is that? Because the government is increasing liquidity and money in circulation like crazy, while we do not have the means to import or produce enough goods to neutralize that increased liquidity.