Agree with you to some extent. I think Modi habitually tried to blackmail world community by staging Pahalgam terrorist attack and creating a standoff with Pakistan probably with the goal of getting rid of IWT, and then cash these 'successes' in the Indian electoral process. It turned out to be a fiasco for that Hindutva terrorist because (1) no international support - world by and large refused to get blackmailed and asked Modi to settle his issues with Pakistan bilaterally, and (2) the response from Pakistan turned out to be just the opposite to what he expected.
The Hindutva terrorist Modi now doesn't know how to get out of the current situation that he is caught in. His only hope is Pakistan attacking India so that Modi could play as a victim in front of the world. He is acting as aggressive but makes sure Indians don't get into Pakistani air space or territory. He is also playing with water (releasing extra water at one point in time and reducing/blocking at another one.
Modi's only hope is that Pakistan makes a mistake but at the same time getting desperate (as the time passes). The chances of Modi making a mistake in desperation are higher.
If he somehow succeeds in avoiding any mistakes, he will have to get down, meet the ground reality, and retreat in disgrace. Pakistan is not in a mood to give him a face saving at all.
If this coward insanely makes a mistake of attacking Pakistan even symbolically, you'll see a good fireworks show. That will probably be the last Indian war with Pakistan in the current shape of India. In-Sha-Allah.