POST WAR assessment of recent conflict.


Pakistan also hit Indian airbases. But you will not see sat images because

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Doesn't mean India airbases were not hit as we have videos of it. As per Indian media S400 operator was killed. Confirm Pakistan saying that S400 radar was taken out.
 
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Here's my post war assessment. I have complied my points that I posted on other threads but I will also keep adding on more valid questions to this as I get more answers.

- Pakistan claims about neutralizing S400 (now news is circulating that it was actually Cheeseboard radar that was destroyed), but the sat image shown is very blurry and doesn't show the after impact in the image clearly. Also Pakistan didn't share their share of sat images of Indian air bases being struck except for Udampur, whose image like I said above is very blurry to make out the impact. Which leads me to believe Pakistani sat image quality is poor, that why its hard to verify anything. India on the other hand has shown high quality images of the damages to our air bases.

- Pakistan is facing a real threat from Indian Brahmos cruise missiles (French SCALP & Hammer included) as we have seen India employed fully to target our bases deep inside. DG ISPR on the other hand claimed that Pakistan also employed hypersonic missiles of their own, but I don't think CM-400AKG is hypersonic (if he is referring to this missile... what other hypersonic missiles do we have???). Other than the CM400-AKG, the most prominent weapons that we have all seen used by Pakistan was the Fateh 1/2, however we know that Pakistan also has the Babur and RaaD series but there is no evidence of Pakistan using them.

- Pakistani AD underperformed or was overwhelmed by Indian projectiles (drones + missiles). Might be possible as pointed out by some OSINT accounts that Pakistan turned off its radars and resorted to "soft kills" so that India could not carry out SEAD/DEAD against Pakistani AD. Because of that reluctance India managed to lob cruise missiles deep inside Pakistan while Pakistan AD units were busy taking out drones and missiles using "soft kill". We don't know that yet, maybe they used "hard kill" approach as well but India saturated Pakistan airspace.

- Pakistan as a smaller country needs to reciprocate the same and create shock and awe across the country by hitting Indian military sites and bases deep inside. For that, Pakistan will need an arsenal of supersonic cruise missiles as tit-for-tat for BraHmos (hypersonic will be a game changer). Maybe buy Chinese supersonic missiles like the DH ones and then locally produce them. Fateh-1 & 2 ranges are limited so they need 3 & 4 with longer ranges for striking critical infrastructure deep inside. Why are Babur and RaaD produced (Taimoor still in production) if they are not going to be used. I think this was the best opportunity to test them and then evaluate both of their performance.

- While our AD also needs improvement and it will do its work, Pakistan can simultaneously keep the momentum going by using drone swarm to engage Indian AD (possible SEAD/DEAD) while lobbing supersonic missiles at target... that way even if Indian S400 manages to take out 1 or 2 missiles, others will penetrate and hit their intended targets.

Some additional thoughts:

- As claimed by AVM, a Brahmos missile was downed using "soft kill" on which many Indians were laughing and saying its not possible because it has both GPS and INS and they said, even if Pakistan took out the GPS, the INS would ensure the missile reaches its target. Is this even possible???

- Remember the Mian Channu incident, where India accidently fired a Brahmos? I now believe that was deliberately done by India to test our AD and measure our responses. India was working in advance knowing that one day when conflict starts, they will lob cruise missiles inside Pakistan. Pakistan couldn't engage the missile in Mian Channu and that gave India the surety that Pakistan AD is exploitable and still I believe our AD needs to be improved before its too late.
 
Areas for improvements:
  • Slow responses: Learn from PAF and play on the front foot
  • Excessive signaling: Too much of 'We want peace' after India killed 33 of your people
  • Drones! Drones! Drones!: After the clash on Day 1, India settled into lobbing drones, loitering munitions and various types of missiles over the border. Despite India being target rich, our response was a day late and a dollar short.
    • What was the success rate of YIHA-III? Quite a few crashes/interceptions.
    • Blaze-25 and Blaze-50 were a no-show. This forum laugh at Shaheds but ask Ukrainians and you hear a different story. Many are terrified!
    • Need more types of loitering munitions, drones, decoys and FPVs!
  • Strategic communication: We need a serious overhaul of our comms strategy. Can't help but feel that India felt emboldened this time because of the mess it saw.
    • The content of the Tri-Service pressers was excellent but, aside from AVM Aurangzeb, the spox did a woeful job presenting. During the presser on Balochistan, DG ISPR kept speaking in Urdu and English interchangeably.
    • Khawaja Asif is a liability. He is tweeting memes! Is he regressing?
    • Bilawal Bhutto is too young for the Foreign Minister role and fails to register as an authoritative figure. Hina Khar may have been a better pick.
    • Atta Tarar can't even write a damn tweet properly.
Air defence: We are being overly critical of ADGE when a cursory glance at any current/recent conflicts will show you that it performed well enough. Consider the following:
  • Russia has been failing to intercept Ukrainian drones/missiles that targeted its major cities and critical infrastructure (air bases, munition depots, oil refineries, etc)
  • Israel has been hammered by Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and Iran despite the minuscule area it has to defend and the considerable resources offered to it
  • Gulf states, Saudi Arabia and UAE, have been struck belligerently by Houthis
Have a realistic expectation of the ADGE and keep the cost of interceptions in mind. AVM Aurangzeb Ahmed in his briefing talked about soft kills. It's the most cost-effective way of taking out an attack vector. Hard kills are expensive. A HQ-9B/C interceptor cost upwards of ~$1.2 million USD (PPP adjusted) and it takes time to replenish them. We are not the U.S. that can drop a billion dollar intercepting Iranian and Houthi decoys/drones/missiles.

Underground bases are white elephants. We should instead induct more E-SHORADS and LOMADS for fixed assets. HQ-22 might be worth another look. China is inducting them in large numbers in an effort to manage costs.

Unrelated, what happened to the NESCOM project on E-SHORADS? Any updates?
 
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Areas for improvements:
  • Slow responses: Learn from PAF and play on the front foot
  • Excessive signaling: Too much of 'We want peace' after India killed 33 of your people
  • Drones! Drones! Drones!: After the clash on Day 1, India settled into lobbing drones, loitering munitions and various types of missiles over the border. Despite India being target rich, our response was a day late and a dollar short.
    • What was the success rate of YIHA-III? Quite a few crashes/interceptions.
    • Blaze-25 and Blaze-50 were a no-show. This forum laugh at Shaheds but ask Ukrainians and you hear a different story. Many are terrified!
    • Need more types of loitering munitions, drones, decoys and FPVs!
  • Strategic communication: We need a serious overhaul of our comms strategy. Can't help but feel that India felt emboldened this time because of the mess it saw.
    • The content of the Tri-Service pressers was excellent but, aside from AVM Aurangzeb, the spox did a woeful job presenting. During the presser on Balochistan, DG ISPR kept speaking in Urdu and English interchangeably.
    • Khawaja Asif is a liability. He is tweeting memes! Is he regressing?
    • Bilawal Bhutto is too young for the Foreign Minister role and fails to register as an authoritative figure. Hina Khar may have been a better pick.
    • Atta Tarar can't even write a damn tweet properly.
Air defence: We are being overly critical of ADGE when a cursory glance at any current/recent conflicts will show you that it performed well enough. Consider the following:
  • Russia has been failing to intercept Ukrainian drones/missiles that targeted its major cities and critical infrastructure (air bases, munition depots, oil refineries, etc)
  • Israel has been hammered by Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and Iran despite the minuscule area it has to defend and the considerable resources offered to it
  • Gulf states, Saudi Arabia and UAE, have been struck belligerently by Houthis
Have a realistic expectation of the ADGE and keep the cost of interceptions in mind. AVM Aurangzeb Ahmed in his briefing talked about soft kills. It's the most cost-effective way of taking out an attack vector. Hard kills are expensive. A HQ-9B/C interceptor cost upwards of ~$1.2 million USD (PPP adjusted) and it takes time to replenish them. We are not the U.S. that can drop a billion dollar intercepting Iranian and Houthi decoys/drones/missiles.

Underground bases are white elephants. We should instead induct more E-SHORADS and LOMADS for fixed assets. HQ-22 might be worth another look. China is inducting them in large numbers in an effort to manage costs.

Unrelated, what happened to the NESCOM project on E-SHORADS? Any updates?

"What was the success rate of YIHA-III?"

We have not much proof about that but I think its underperforming. Personally I think Pakistan should get more Shaheed drones from Iran, but that is not possible.

Other than that, I agree with your points.
 
Another round of Christine Fair doing to Indians what she did post 2019.

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Pakistan also hit Indian airbases. But you will not see sat images because

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Doesn't mean India airbases were not hit as we have videos of it. As per Indian media S400 operator was killed. Confirm Pakistan saying that S400 radar was taken out.

Ohh common please there are many private ferms who sells satellite images anyone can get that from them..

Can u quote me who was a 400 operator is dead. I didn't see any
 
From my perspective, the dynamics of the current situation have shifted. India always maintains a balance in its relationships with Russia, the EU, and the US. India's policy of remaining independent is not in the US's favor. The US needs India against china, but it wants a subservient India, otherwise India itself could become a threat to the US in the future. And India will not act in such a way (become a threat or fully align) until it feels that its existence would be threatened if it doesn't align with the US (Only US). This would only happen if India were to suffer a major major setback. The US helps develop nations, but only when they completely submit to America, like Japan, Korea, etc.

What respected members of PDF says about this?
@Oscar @RescueRanger @Quwa @SoulSpokesman @Tejas Spokesman @Sharma Ji
 
From my perspective, the dynamics of the current situation have shifted. India always maintains a balance in its relationships with Russia, the EU, and the US. India's policy of remaining independent is not in the US's favor. The US needs India against china, but it wants a subservient India, otherwise India itself could become a threat to the US in the future. And India will not act in such a way (become a threat or fully align) until it feels that its existence would be threatened if it doesn't align with the US (Only US). This would only happen if India were to suffer a major major setback. The US helps develop nations, but only when they completely submit to America, like Japan, Korea, etc.

What respected members of PDF says about this?
@Oscar @RescueRanger @Quwa @SoulSpokesman @Tejas Spokesman @Sharma Ji
Good points - war has not yet concluded in my eyes so this entire thread is a little premature.
 
The reports being published from both the countries by in-house media houses are towing the official narrative lest they be labelled as anti-national.
Even international media houses have their own way of projecting conflicts due to their own loyalties.

Loss of aircraft for India, although not accepted by them, was indeed a big loss.

India appears to have successfully attacked more critical targets within Pakistan indicating lack of potent AD network.

These two articles from Al Jazeera and NYT appear to corroborate this line.


“Since the announcement, both countries have held news conferences, presenting “evidence” of their “achievements”. On Monday, senior military officials in India and Pakistan spoke by phone, pledging to uphold the ceasefire in the coming days.

However, analysts say neither side can truly claim to have emerged from the post-April 22 crisis with a definite upper hand. Instead, they say, both India and Pakistan can claim strategic gains even as they each also suffered losses.
Planes down may be Pakistan’s gain

India claimed that its strikes on May 7 killed more than 100 “terrorists”. Pakistan said the Indian missiles had hit mosques and residential areas, killing 40 civilians, including children, apart from 11 military personnel.

Further reach across border may be India’s gain
In many ways, analysts say that the more meaty military accomplishment was India’s.”


“Indian strikes on Pakistan damaged six airfields, Post analysis finds
The review of more than two dozen satellite images and aftermath videos found that the strikes heavily damaged three hangars, two runways and a pair of mobile buildings used by the air force. Some of the sites hit by India were as deep as 100 miles inside the country.“

Jingoistic noise aside, there were serious loopholes exposed on both sides.
 
Ohh common please there are many private ferms who sells satellite images anyone can get that from them..

Can u quote me who was a 400 operator is dead. I didn't see any

This is what NYT said

"Satellite images of the sites Pakistan claimed to have hit are limited, and so far do not clearly show damage caused by Pakistani strikes even at bases where there was corroborating evidence of some military action."

India is going out of its way to hide any military losses. But the real damage was done on day 1 when 5 airfacts were shot down, thats headline WW now.

Evidence of S400 operator killed.

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@SiliconByte (silicon0000)

You are right. It doesn't make sense for India to be subservient to any Great Power. Nor for that matter it is in PAK's interest. It would be better for both if they were to sort out mutual issues amicably- it would ensure that neither can be played by outside powers. PAK will always face a bigger challenge on its Western Frontier and contrary to public opinion, IND faces a bigger challenge in the NE. If cordiality (if not outright friendship) prevails both countries can face their bigger issues better.

Regards
 
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watch worthy
 
The Fatah series can be a good base platform for our indigenous surface to air missiles. Instead of working to increase the range, they should make it surface to surface, surface to air, and surface to sea. With the exact same rocket able to work in different modes upon command. Multi-spectral seekers should be able to lock on to targets on land, in the air, and at sea. Flight control should be able to manoeuvre in the air, or pursue mobile targets on land and at sea. Costs should be brought down through indigenous production and mass manufacturing. It is telling that India didn’t even try to target any of our mobile platforms. It targeted static ground assets. The shoot and scoot ability has proven its merit.

Another direction of development is the ability of operators to keep sitting in the vehicle while firing. This means the cabin needs solid shielding and the launch mechanism needs to be high enough quality that we can place personnel in the cabin during firing. The recent videos show the need for personnel maintaining a distance of 20 ft while firing. The firing system seems to be a ruggedised laptop using wireless communications.

Following the emerging trend of self driving cars, if AI can be used to move the launchers autonomously, it will cut down on the weakest link: human interaction.

Research should be conducted to develop better fuel that gives a cleaner burn and longer range. Better explosives to get a bigger bang for the same weight class.

Similarly, assets that are widely distributed geographically should be able to coordinate a saturation attack in a manner such that rockets from various distances all arrive at the same time at the target, forcing the enemy to guard 360 degree approach. There should be an ability to overshoot, turn around and hit the target. This can be achieved through dual pulsed motors that turn off at altitude then turn on at the end.

Electromagnetic rail guns should be explored for safety of large fixed assets against supersonic and hypersonic threats. Multiple guns can saturate the approach with very high velocity projectiles.

We have the foundations of potent systems. But we need the imagination in leadership to push the boundaries. Looking forward to hearing some good news in the future.
 
The reports being published from both the countries by in-house media houses are towing the official narrative lest they be labelled as anti-national.
Even international media houses have their own way of projecting conflicts due to their own loyalties.

Loss of aircraft for India, although not accepted by them, was indeed a big loss.

India appears to have successfully attacked more critical targets within Pakistan indicating lack of potent AD network.

These two articles from Al Jazeera and NYT appear to corroborate this line.


“Since the announcement, both countries have held news conferences, presenting “evidence” of their “achievements”. On Monday, senior military officials in India and Pakistan spoke by phone, pledging to uphold the ceasefire in the coming days.

However, analysts say neither side can truly claim to have emerged from the post-April 22 crisis with a definite upper hand. Instead, they say, both India and Pakistan can claim strategic gains even as they each also suffered losses.
Planes down may be Pakistan’s gain

India claimed that its strikes on May 7 killed more than 100 “terrorists”. Pakistan said the Indian missiles had hit mosques and residential areas, killing 40 civilians, including children, apart from 11 military personnel.

Further reach across border may be India’s gain
In many ways, analysts say that the more meaty military accomplishment was India’s.”


“Indian strikes on Pakistan damaged six airfields, Post analysis finds
The review of more than two dozen satellite images and aftermath videos found that the strikes heavily damaged three hangars, two runways and a pair of mobile buildings used by the air force. Some of the sites hit by India were as deep as 100 miles inside the country.“

Jingoistic noise aside, there were serious loopholes exposed on both sides.

Good post.
 
Which is 6th fighter India lost on 10 may
And which UAV we are talking about lost/shot down on 7 may
 

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