Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[ShapurII]

they all fought Israel far more than Iran did and many reports say Iran advised Nasrallah to not escalate with Israel

they would fight with us if they didn't already fight Israel on our behalf first ...

5% of 5% = 0.25% of our GDP/overall budget

seems like a small price to pay to support Israel's enemies.

the real issue is our small GDP and small military budget generally, not the allocation to the resistance groups.

I'm not sure you get my point, or what "quid pro quo" means.
They fought Israel because they had to. It was their fight, not ours. Israel has been violating these countries for decades, long before the 1979 revolution. It was THEIR fight but they fought it with OUR money and resources.

So, the question is what have they done for us? Did they attack Israel during TP2 in coordination with us? Will they attack US bases in the region if tomorrow the US decides to launch a military campaign against us?

That 0.25% of our GDP sums up (over the years) to over 50 billions. It can modernize both the IRIAF and our ground forces lol

 

[Watandar]

Hamas has been effectively destroyed. Gaza has been invaded. Hamas will never be what it was before October 7th. Sure, a lot of angry Palestinians that have lost their family members will be willing to join Hamas, but Hamas will never rule over Gaza again.

I have said it a million times before. Hamas was never a true ally of Iran. It was an Ikhwan Al-Muslimin group that had amicable ties with Turkey and Qatar and had stabbed Iran in the back during the Syrian Civil War.
What Hamas did on October 7th was another stab in the back for Iran. They dragged the Axis of Resistance into a war that they weren't prepared for and caught all of us off guard. It is highly likely that it was a plan by Turkey to weaken Iran's influence in the region. And it did work because Syria fell in 11 days and Hezbollah was defeated.

yes that theory is out there. Its just that the two groups Iran has worked with side by side the longest is Hezbollah since the early 1980s and Hamas/PIJ since the 1990s.

Did you know Iran tried to take this Hezbollah-type model to other places ? Attempts were made in Bosnia, Egypt and Afghanistan in 90's but didnt go anywhere. So you support what allies you have.

 

[ShapurII]

yes that theory is out there. Its just that the two groups Iran has worked with side by side the longest is Hezbollah since the early 1980s and Hamas/PIJ since the 1990s.

Did you know Iran tried to take this Hezbollah-type model to other places ? Attempts were made in Bosnia, Egypt and Afghanistan in 90's but didnt go anywhere. So you support what allies you have.

Bosnia was one of our first attempts to exert influence beyond our borders. It failed miserably. A complete loss for us.

I don't know of any such attempts in Egypt, but we supported the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan but it was defeated by the pro-US forces (i.e. the Taliban). The Ayatollahs of Iran didn't see Afghanistan as a priority. This is one of the other indicators of how the Ayatollahs of Iran see the issues of our national security through the prism of ideology, instead of national interests.

 

[mangekyo]

Hamas has been effectively destroyed. Gaza has been invaded. Hamas will never be what it was before October 7th. Sure, a lot of angry Palestinians that have lost their family members will be willing to join Hamas, but Hamas will never rule over Gaza again.

I have said it a million times before. Hamas was never a true ally of Iran. It was an Ikhwan Al-Muslimin group that had amicable ties with Turkey and Qatar and had stabbed Iran in the back during the Syrian Civil War.
What Hamas did on October 7th was another stab in the back for Iran. They dragged the Axis of Resistance into a war that they weren't prepared for and caught all of us off guard. It is highly likely that it was a plan by Turkey to weaken Iran's influence in the region. And it did work because Syria fell in 11 days and Hezbollah was defeated.

Supporting HAMAS was a strategic failure by IRI. If HAMAS joining ISIS during the Syrian civil war wasn’t enough proof that this group is an enemy of Iran and AOR, I don’t know what more proof IRI needed. The enemy of your enemy is not always your friend.

 

[925boy]

Iran has got members of AQ leadership hidden.

Sure.

They should make a joint anti-Imperialist front with them if Jolani does not listen to Iran.

Iran can't make any joint front with forces that are anti-Shiite, like AQ, or forces that are vulnerable to external hijacking or straying away from the "mission".

Iran is not the best proxy force trainer on the planet for no good reason- Iran knows what to look for in forces it will form a "front" with. Iran knows from recent history that most Sunni forces will "stray from the mission" eventually if it forms a joint front with them- look at Hezbollah- it has "stayed the course" since 1982- which Sunni force would have allied with Iran that long and not sold Iran out?

Bin Laden had ordered the Iraqi part of his group not to target Shias during American occupation.

Doesn't change the fact that AQ isn't reliable enough for Iran to trust and AQ has many members and leaders that are anti-Shiite. AQ only backed off from hitting Iran because Iran detained its leaders and Quds force hit their people in the ME region in retaliation for anti-Shiite attacks.

 

[Kyussis]

Sure.

Iran can't make any joint front with forces that are anti-Shiite, like AQ, or forces that are vulnerable to external hijacking or straying away from the "mission".

Iran is not the best proxy force trainer on the planet for no good reason- Iran knows what to look for in forces it will form a "front" with. Iran knows from recent history that most Sunni forces will "stray from the mission" eventually if it forms a joint front with them- look at Hezbollah- it has "stayed the course" since 1982- which Sunni force would have allied with Iran that long and not sold Iran out?

Doesn't change the fact that AQ isn't reliable enough for Iran to trust and AQ has many members and leaders that are anti-Shiite. AQ only backed off from hitting Iran because Iran detained its leaders and Quds force hit their people in the ME region in retaliation for anti-Shiite attacks.

Al CIAda exists only to serve U.S interest!

 

[LittleFish]

Complaining Shia Arabs not loyal enough to you, but you may miss something important——after Khomeini passed away and Khamenai became the supreme leader, Iran had lost its religious superiority, which means the so-called AoR is unstable——once Iran runs out of money, AoR will break up.

For example, back to the Cold War, Mao Zedong became the spiritual leader of all commie or third-world countries after Stalin died. Soviet Union lost its ideological superiority, and Beijing became the Mecca of all commies and suppressed ethnics in the world instead of Moscow. That’s why Soviet Union agreed to massively aid China——Khrushchev needed our ideological help badly then. But after Mao passed away, China lost the superiority.

Another inappropriate example, ISIS. Jihadists groups from Negiria to Afghanistan pledged loyalty to Al-Bagdadi and announced to be a province of ISIS, without getting too much money from it. Khomeini might have such influence, but Khamenei mustn’t.

 

[LittleFish]

Khamenai is not a universally respected cleric among Shias like Khomeini or Musa Sadr, even his Marja degree was granted without being common acknowledged, and what’s worse he is not a Sayyid. Although Iraq is now dominated by Shia, neither Muqtada Sadr nor Al-Sistani(a Persian lol) is willing to obey to or even cooperate with Iran. Until Nasiriyah fall down, Shia Iraqis won’t be your true ally.

Soleimani was the very founder of the so-called AoR, respected by both Arabs and Iranians, Shias and Sunnis, although he is not an ayatollah, what a talent. Trump was so sensitive to make it clear that kill Soleimani and AoR will collapse, and it proves he was right.

 

[LittleFish]

Currently, IRI is just like China in 60-70s, dedicating to “export revolution” despite a weak economy, and will definitely suffer betrayal and sanctions like what we used to——we aided Albania, Vietnam, North Korea with huge amount of resources, but got nothing but backstabbing.

But this may not be a bad result for Iran to wake up, withdraw from Arab world and focus on developing economy like we did.

 

[ShapurII]

Although Iraq is now dominated by Shia, neither Muqtada Sadr nor Al-Sistani(a Persian lol) is willing to obey to or even cooperate with Iran. Until Nasiriyah fall down, Shia Iraqis won’t be your true ally.

Great analysis, my friend.
Glad to see that even a Chinese citizen whose country is not directly involved in the Middle East proxy wars has such a deep understanding of the issue, while these obvious facts go over the heads of our countrymen because they have been blinded by ideology.

The overwhelming majority of the influential Shiite clergy in Iraq has been exported to there by Iran. Other than some of them being of Iranian origin, nearly all of them have lived in Iran for decades. This is because Saddam had sent them in exile and they were forced to live in Iran. So, the US truly gave us Iraq on a silver platter by a strategic miscalculation. Nevertheless, these people are mainly interested in our resources to further solidify their power in Iraq. They have zero loyalty to Iran otherwise, and as soon as the balance of power shifts (like other players such as Turkey or the US reach out to them) or the money dries up, they will abandon Iran.

 

[LittleFish]

Great analysis, my friend.
Glad to see that even a Chinese citizen whose country is not directly involved in the Middle East proxy wars has such a deep understanding of the issue, while these obvious facts go over the heads of our countrymen because they have been blinded by ideology.

The overwhelming majority of the influential Shiite clergy in Iraq has been exported to there by Iran. Other than some of them being of Iranian origin, nearly all of them have lived in Iran for decades. This is because Saddam had sent them in exile and they were forced to live in Iran. So, the US truly gave us Iraq on a silver platter by a strategic miscalculation. Nevertheless, these people are mainly interested in our resources to further solidify their power in Iraq. They have zero loyalty to Iran otherwise, and as soon as the balance of power shifts (like other players such as Turkey or the US reach out to them) or the money dries up, they will abandon Iran.

Though share the same Shia ideology, it is not enough to unite Arabs and Iranians as one from the bottom of heart. Iraqis may take Iranians to be Mawali oppressors rather than saviors. Don’t forget Persians used to be Sunnis, it was Safavid that made Iran Shia-dominated, while Iraqi Shia Arabs have been the followers of Ali and Hussain for more than a thousand years.

It is interesting that, Muqtada Sadr used to be sheltered in Iran and studied in Qom for a long time, but he eventually turned to be anti-Iran Arab nationalist, befriended with MBS and Al-Thaani, rather than a proxy of Iran.

 

[mangekyo]

Though share the same Shia ideology, it is not enough to unite Arabs and Iranians as one from the bottom of heart. Iraqis may take Iranians to be Mawali oppressors rather than saviors. Don’t forget Persians used to be Sunnis, it was Safavid that made Iran Shia-dominated, while Iraqi Shia Arabs have been the followers of Ali and Hussain for more than a thousand years.

It is interesting that, Muqtada Sadr used to be sheltered in Iran and studied in Qom for a long time, but he eventually turned to be anti-Iran Arab nationalist, befriended with MBS and Al-Thaani, rather than a proxy of Iran.

If ideology is enough to unite Iranians and Arabs, then why aren’t the Arabs united among themselves? They are just sucking up our resources. Iraqi Shias joined Saddam against Iran. HAMAS joined ISIS, then backstabbed us again on October 7. Assad gave away Syria to Jihadists.

 

[ShapurII]

If ideology is enough to unite Iranians and Arabs, then why aren’t the Arabs united among themselves?

They should carve this out of gold and put it at the front of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[Ali_Baba]

It's not 20%, but it's close to 5% of our budget.
The Army has long been neglected and underfunded.

>> Your army may have been underfunded, but the air force has been massively massively underfunded. Modern wars start and finish with airpower, that has to be a primary focus for Iran now. Just look at what happened in the 4day/100hr war between Pakistan and India. Drones, missiles and airpower with minor skirmishes on the border by the Army.