POST WAR assessment of recent conflict.

[Vox Non Dei]

Did a piece with the Think Tank I am working (for another month or so) and I am surprised no one here talk about how to deconflict and rebalance the strategic implication of this strike here, which IMO is more important than who use what where.

We can talk about how PAF J-10 shoot down a Rafale all day but if we don't talk about how India effectively breaking away from the status quo and attack Pakistani military structure "unprovoked" (As in not being attacked locally). That is a bigger issue because if you can't find a way to rebalance the status quo, that give India the mindset that it's okay to attack your military. Losing that balance is a lot worse, because India may lose a Rafale or 2, but if they think they can attack you with impunity, they will do it the next time even if that mean they will lose 1, 2, 4 or 40 Rafale.

You know, the only reason India used airforce was to ensure the precision of strike. It did not want to do an "Iran" on Pakistan. That part is easy and dangerous. Just shove as much ballistic missiles as you can and hope some stick. That can only be done if you are fine with fighting a long war with an enemy which is far. India neither wants to be an Israel nor a Russia. It takes too much away from economic development.

So, Hard part is to shove as less precision guided weapons as possible and still get vital hits. For that you need air-force. And to capture evidence of hits. Even if you take out airforce and Rafales out of equation, this will be replaced by Bomber drones (like so called Jet powered Ghatak drone that India is now building). You loose 40-50 of them, it is not that big of an issue. They can be replaced by placing a local order.

This Indo-Pak air war. Some analysts believe that Pakistan used the legendary “ABC tactics”.

“A” to lock the target; “B” to launch missiles; “C” to guide missiles to attack the target. In Chinese, it's called “A锁B射C导 (A-lock, B-shoot, C-guide)”.

This mode is characterized by the following:
“A": usually a large ground-based air defense radar. It is very large and is capable of detecting and locking on to targets at very long ranges.
“B": usually a fighter carrying a BVR AAM. It is entirely possible for it to be invisible to enemy fighter targets the entire time, and for the enemy to be completely invisible to it. It receives a signal from the ground radar via the datalink and simply launches the missile, then maneuvers to hide or return, completely ignoring the target and the missile already launched.
“C": usually means AEW&C. it hides at a very safe distance and continuously directs the BVR AAM at the target. It also analyzes and evaluates the final effect.

Of course, this is analyst speculation. Pakistani official agencies have not elaborated on the technical details of this Indo-Pak air war.

However, the official Chinese organization CCTV put out this today ......
View attachment 122261

If the PAF continues to strengthen its “ABC tactics” and replenish the system with relevant weaponry in the coming years. Then, how will IAF respond?

Obviously, all IAF's current means cannot cope with this system. Even if IAF urgently procures 5th-Gen fighters like the F-35, it will be difficult to escape the lock of the large ground-based anti-stealth radars introduced by PAF, not to mention the Rafale, Su-30MKI, and LCA .......

Perhaps, IAF using all its old fighters to exhaust PAF's missiles is one way to do it. Just, I wonder how many IAF pilots are left who dare to go to the battlefield to die ...... However, the fully automated production line at the China Air-Air Missile Research Institute (CAAMRI) is capable of unmanned, automated production 24 hours a day, and is said to be capable of producing up to 1,000 PL-15E AAM per day under extreme conditions ......

Actually, India did not even use AWACS, which is the reason for losses. It did not even try to do a SEAD/DEAD before hits. India had air defences of its own in the region which could have forced Pakistani jets on CAP duty to retreat.

The reason, now it appears to me, was to avoid a longer conflict. This was a political input from Indian leadership. Do not get into a Russia or Israel like situation where the tempo and duration of conflict is not in your control and escalation ladder is not of your choice. So they start with NOT attacking the military targets at all.

In case of a war in which they want to fight to death against Pakistan military, the opening will be totally different. Most likely, it will be with barrage of ballistic missiles or hypersonic glide missiles against Pakistan's ground targets. We know India can achieve hits on Pakistan's military targets very precisely -- that is the only lesson we can take away on India side. And India is developing hypersonic glide missile to hit ships on sea. That will take out all the land based targets like those radars. Not to mention, once you take out the airbases and refuling ability of Pakistan, due to its lack of strategic depth it can not field AWACS for long.

Second part is to supply some Indian SAMs to Afghanistan which can be used to harass Pakistan's AWACS from the west flying near its border. They do not need to even fire missiles, just switch on the tracking radar. Again, a lack of geographical depth comes to detriment of Pakistan. If Pakistan wants to get into a shooting match with Afghanistan on this matter, all the more power to them. They will be next America of 2000s.

The last is to use India's soon to be operation jet powered drones to replace manned fighter. Even if PAF kills 10s or 50s of them, it is cheap means of conducting precision strikes in Pakistan as it sidestep the entire ABC capability.

Indian pilot being taken away in ambulance from Rafale crash site

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There were injuries to local in the field -- including one death of a local. Very likely those are being taken to hospital.

Maxar wont cooperate and Chinese aren’t forthcoming with exposing their imagery capabilities.

You have planet labs. For the kind of BDA you are looking, its capabilities are more than enough. 50-72 cm.

BTW, Chinese have provided pictures of commercial satellite too... The most important one is of Adampur...

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[j_hungary]

You know, the only reason India used airforce was to ensure the precision of strike. It did not want to do an "Iran" on Pakistan. That part is easy and dangerous. Just shove as much ballistic missiles as you can and hope some stick. That can only be done if you are fine with fighting a long war with an enemy which is far. India neither wants to be an Israel nor a Russia. It takes too much away from economic development.

So, Hard part is to shove as less precision guided weapons as possible and still get vital hits. For that you need air-force. And to capture evidence of hits. Even if you take out airforce and Rafales out of equation, this will be replaced by Bomber drones (like so called Jet powered Ghatak drone that India is now building). You loose 40-50 of them, it is not that big of an issue. They can be replaced by placing a local order.

Well, this is not a war, rather it's a targeted response.

India is hitting the targets they wanted to hit, instead of just going about doing anything else. That, again, as I said before, is to gauge the Pakistani response themselves.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

It has already been fact checked by others too. Its a false claim.

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Students are talking about missile strike so how that debunk anything? Pakistan did strike.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

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More videos coming

 

[Vox Non Dei]

Students are talking about missile strike so how that debunk anything? Pakistan did strike.

Students can not tell the difference between debris and impact. They saw nothing but just explosions and lights in the sky during night. Besides the base is 15-20KM away from the students. They can not see anything in the base.

There was a high resolution satellite image of Adampur base by Chinese company which showed no evidence of any such strike.

Last but not the least, when there is damage, you do not have to fish for evidence like this. India jets were shot down, the evidence was easy to come by. Right now, evidence is being sought and nothing useful is coming.

Well, this is not a war, rather it's a targeted response.

India is hitting the targets they wanted to hit, instead of just going about doing anything else. That, again, as I said before, is to gauge the Pakistani response themselves.

I -- most humbly -- do not think it is as much as finding new red-lines for response as it is to find the point where Pakistan's military leadership feels uncomfortable to engage in asymmetric means and India can get away without getting into an extended conflict.

For the response, I do not know why, but for some reason Indian leadership believes that response from Pakistan will be very very limited. Perhaps it is due to the fact that Indian initiative will only come in response to a terror attacking inside India, so it will be a hot potato that China does not want to touch. If India keeps the tempo of attack high, it can get away before getting involved in a bigger conflict.

Noteworthy, India, IMHO, is certainly using same asymmetric means now for sometime. Pakistan have to yet show willingness to do a counter attack in response to such an act. However, for now those seem to be limited to targeted persons --similar to Mossad's Operation Warth of God, but of course more sloppy and using untrained criminal elements-- and providing support to existing militants. Will Pakistan do an overt military counter on India for this? I do not know.

In all these two prongs seem to be what India is using to manage this situation. Using fast paced limited military options to deal with asymmetric warfare from Pakistan and using its own asymmetric warfare to damage, degrade and dissuade Pakistani efforts at such warfare.

On an unrelated note, what I find most interesting is people who are the most hated by Pakistan's own people are now the one gaining the biggest advantage : Asim Munir and certain political parties who were much reviled in Pakistan just few months ago. India also has a history of cutting back room deals with them. Was it a part of the Indian calculations of this conflict? I have much doubts on Indian planners ability to consider even basic second order effects but this certainly is not bad for them.

 

[Oscar]

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More videos coming

Hollow until it’s actually released and then Indians will spend discrediting it even if it is genuine but not clear

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

Hollow until it’s actually released and then Indians will spend discrediting it even if it is genuine but not clear

Screenshot is released. Now all depend on India good behavior. More videos are coming.

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[hydrabadi_arab]

Indians running scared for their life. This sound will haunt them for life.

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[Fasbre2]

Guys
If there were six ejections or deaths I have not seen a single video of any pilots of Iaf . My personal feeling is 6 is exaggerated. The actual number may be 2..rafale and su30 .

Go back to bharat rakshak… it was 6+.. and what are you expecting videos of burnt bodies….

 

[Puncher]

Indian diaspora abroad does not have the social reach as Pakistani diaspora.

As most Indians are either students or cheap labour. This is not the case with Pakistanis.

I myself have worked with Indians in certain sectors.

no comment

Although India is a bigger country than Pakistan, it is no more capable of sustained warfare than Pakistan. As far as I know India's ammunition stockpile, energy stockpile, industrial production capacity, and social organization capacity are all weak.

It is China that really has a strong capacity for a protracted war. China will give full support to Pakistan and eventually it will be India who will not be able to tolerate a protracted war.

You shouldn't say "both with and without Chinese help". Anyone who is familiar with the history of China and Pakistan knows that it is necessarily "with" not "withou".

In a situation like that, China would be worried about America joining the party.. USA will not have a better opportunity to entangled china in a land war without boots on ground than a war hot war in Asia..

 

[Jango007]

It has already been fact checked by others too. Its a false claim.

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knowing how much Indians lie and is now is in the fabric of their DNA we should simply discard anything coming from Indian sources...no matter how authentic it may look unless verified by the third party.

 

[TAC]

You know, the only reason India used airforce was to ensure the precision of strike. It did not want to do an "Iran" on Pakistan. That part is easy and dangerous. Just shove as much ballistic missiles as you can and hope some stick. That can only be done if you are fine with fighting a long war with an enemy which is far. India neither wants to be an Israel nor a Russia. It takes too much away from economic development.

So, Hard part is to shove as less precision guided weapons as possible and still get vital hits. For that you need air-force. And to capture evidence of hits. Even if you take out airforce and Rafales out of equation, this will be replaced by Bomber drones (like so called Jet powered Ghatak drone that India is now building). You loose 40-50 of them, it is not that big of an issue. They can be replaced by placing a local order.

Actually, India did not even use AWACS, which is the reason for losses. It did not even try to do a SEAD/DEAD before hits. India had air defences of its own in the region which could have forced Pakistani jets on CAP duty to retreat.

The reason, now it appears to me, was to avoid a longer conflict. This was a political input from Indian leadership. Do not get into a Russia or Israel like situation where the tempo and duration of conflict is not in your control and escalation ladder is not of your choice. So they start with NOT attacking the military targets at all.

In case of a war in which they want to fight to death against Pakistan military, the opening will be totally different. Most likely, it will be with barrage of ballistic missiles or hypersonic glide missiles against Pakistan's ground targets. We know India can achieve hits on Pakistan's military targets very precisely -- that is the only lesson we can take away on India side. And India is developing hypersonic glide missile to hit ships on sea. That will take out all the land based targets like those radars. Not to mention, once you take out the airbases and refuling ability of Pakistan, due to its lack of strategic depth it can not field AWACS for long.

Second part is to supply some Indian SAMs to Afghanistan which can be used to harass Pakistan's AWACS from the west flying near its border. They do not need to even fire missiles, just switch on the tracking radar. Again, a lack of geographical depth comes to detriment of Pakistan. If Pakistan wants to get into a shooting match with Afghanistan on this matter, all the more power to them. They will be next America of 2000s.

The last is to use India's soon to be operation jet powered drones to replace manned fighter. Even if PAF kills 10s or 50s of them, it is cheap means of conducting precision strikes in Pakistan as it sidestep the entire ABC capability.


There were injuries to local in the field -- including one death of a local. Very likely those are being taken to hospital.


You have planet labs. For the kind of BDA you are looking, its capabilities are more than enough. 50-72 cm.

BTW, Chinese have provided pictures of commercial satellite too... The most important one is of Adampur...

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BS. Modi didn’t give 2 shits about precision. All he wanted to do was smash some stuff over the border and claim 100 terrorists killed. The reason why missiles were not used is that he did not want a response in kind. They were only pulled out after IAF got humiliated & he had to do something. The idea was to fire from safety of own airspace, protected by S400’s and then defend. Hopefully Pakistan won’t respond but if it does, add insult to injury by shooting down a couple of PAF jets given perceived superiority of Ra-fails and S400 marvel. Dozens of Pakistani folks get killed ( without India ever providing any proof that any Pakistani was involved in the terror attack), kids, women who cares, all good. Beat chest claim ‘victory’, Godi media would do the rest and butcher of Gujerat Modi would milk it to stay in power until death. Didn’t quite work out like that now did it? At least he’s still doing the Godi media and claiming ‘victory’ part regardless of how hollow it is and how the reality is a well deserved humiliation.
You’re Full of if’s buts and maybes, what mighty India would do in full war, Yeh ok whatever u think, we’ll see if it happens but one point u are utterly wrong on - India does 100% want to be Isreal in letter and spirit. It takes much of what it does and tries to do straight from the Israeli playbook. Entirely another matter that it doesn’t have the comparative overwhelming power to pull it off and ends up getting slapped down instead.

 

[airhead]

Go back to bharat rakshak… it was 6+.. and what are you expecting videos of burnt bodies….

I am talking about ejections…you got to believe not all died right ? What is bharat Rakshak?

 

[Oscar]

Go back to bharat rakshak… it was 6+.. and what are you expecting videos of burnt bodies….

Well perhaps not the morbid but one would expect more HUMINT on pictures or otherwise. People are merciless with cellphones.

 

[MH.Yang]

no comment

In a situation like that, China would be worried about America joining the party.. USA will not have a better opportunity to entangled china in a land war without boots on ground than a war hot war in Asia..

China is different from Russia and the United States. China's war doctrine does not aim at occupying land, but at killing and maiming its opponents' field forces and destroying their economic and industrial strength. China also never fights security wars and usually withdraws quickly to end the war at home after achieving its objectives.

If China were to launch an attack, it would choose to reinforce and resupply the 54th Heavy Armored Composite Brigade stationed at Aksai Chin from the Karakoram Highway. Then launch a surprise attack from behind the Indian army attacking Pakistan and at the same time launch a surprise attack towards New Delhi. After destroying most of the Indian forces and destroying the entire industry, economy, infrastructure in the vicinity of New Delhi and dealing a serious blow to the confidence and reputation of the Indian central government, we would immediately withdraw to Aksai Chin and allow the Pakistani army to take over the Indo-Controlled Kashmir. There is nothing for the US to capitalize on.

If India is still unwilling to accept defeat, we can also keep bombing valuable targets in India until the Indian central government gives in. Or support local Indian forces for independent statehood.