Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Persian Gulf]

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Hezbollah publishes video of fighters preparing heavy rocket launchers for strikes on Haifa from the war

These were supposed to be part of large-scale coordinated launches, but the compromised communications networks, pager attacks, leadership losses and constant assassinations of key individuals meant that launch crews had to work independently and were thus far less effective

Though they did manage a direct hit in Tel Aviv in the final days of the war which caused significant damage

25 November 2024:

"The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said a direct hit on one neighbourhood [in Tel Aviv] had left "houses in flames and ruins".

Rockets fell in Petah Tikva, near Tel Aviv, and in some northern areas: Haifa, Nahariya and Kfar Blum, Israeli media reported."

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[BigMela2onin]

All of our allies leech off of us and they have proven to be completely useless when push comes to shove.

What allies lol, Iran loves screeching about neither east nor west like it's some genius policy. Iran's isolation is its own fault.

 

[ShapurII]

What allies lol, Iran loves screeching about neither east nor west like it's some genius policy. Iran's isolation is its own fault.

Hezbollah, PMU, PIJ, Hamas, Bashar Al-Assad, Houthies of Yemen, all the useless people we have been donating money to. None of them will be of any use in a future conflict with the US/Israel as we witnessed a few months ago.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Hezbollah, PMU, PIJ, Hamas, Bashar Al-Assad, Houthies of Yemen, all the useless people we have been donating money to. None of them will be of any use in a future conflict with the US/Israel as we witnessed a few months ago.

Houthis are already useful. They are forcing Israel to fire 40+ Arrow-3/THAAD interceptors per month (based on this month's numbers).

What more do you want PIJ to do that they are not already doing?

 

[BigMela2onin]

Hezbollah, PMU, PIJ, Hamas, Bashar Al-Assad, Houthies of Yemen, all the useless people we have been donating money to. None of them will be of any use in a future conflict with the US/Israel as we witnessed a few months ago.

None of these are organizations in complete control of their state. Assad spent his last years in power trying to minimize Iran's influence. PMU isn't willing to fight against Iraq which acts with open hostility against Iranian interests while enjoying free electricity from Iran. Hezbollah was too busy worrying about non-Shia Lebanese that they tied their own hands against "Israel". Ansarallah are the only ones who do anything are still are limited to sending individual BMs against "Israel." Non-state actors can't be allies.

 

[ShapurII]

Houthis are already useful. They are forcing Israel to fire 40+ Arrow-3/THAAD interceptors per month (based on this month's numbers).

What more do you want PIJ to do that they are not already doing?

It's useless because we are not going to attack Israel anytime soon. Let's say that they are depleting Israel's interceptors now. How is that useful if we don't plan to attack Israel soon? They should've depleted Israeli interceptors before we launched TP1 or TP2, not now.

Both PIJ and Hamas are active in the West Bank, but the West Bank is as calm as any other place in the world. I understand that the situation in the Gaza Strip is unbearable at the moment (and I blame Hamas for that), but why is the rest of Palestine silent like nothing is happening?

None of these are organizations in complete control of their state. Assad spent his last years in power trying to minimize Iran's influence. PMU isn't willing to fight against Iraq which acts with open hostility against Iranian interests while enjoying free electricity from Iran. Hezbollah was too busy worrying about non-Shia Lebanese that they tied their own hands against "Israel". Ansarallah are the only ones who do anything are still are limited to sending individual BMs against "Israel." Non-state actors can't be allies.

Houthies are in contorl of the 80% of the population of Yemen and control major cities there. Assad was in control of Syria. Even Hezbollah used to have incredible amount of influence in the Lebanese parliament. But you get my point. Assad spent his last years in power trying to minimize our influence there. We saved his sorry ass and that's how he returned his favor. Syria under Assad had more economic trade with Turkey and Saudi Arabia than Iran, yet some people didn't want to see it. Arabs can't be allies. State actors or non-state actors.

 

[BigMela2onin]

Arabs can't be allies. State actors or non-state actors.

I think for Iran in our modern context, you're correct.

 

[Persian Gulf]

It's useless because we are not going to attack Israel anytime soon. Let's say that they are depleting Israel's interceptors now. How is that useful if we don't plan to attack Israel soon? They should've depleted Israeli interceptors before we launched TP1 or TP2, not now.

A war could break out with Israel at any time. It's always in our interests for Israel's ABM interceptors to be depleted. This is obvious.

Both PIJ and Hamas are active in the West Bank, but the West Bank is as calm as any other place in the world. I understand that the situation in the Gaza Strip is unbearable at the moment (and I blame Hamas for that), but why is the rest of Palestine silent like nothing is happening?

PIJ does not have a significant presence in the West Bank. And in case you missed it Israel has been conducting a Gaza style razing of buildings campaign in the major resistance hubs in the West Bank, with the PA's help.

 

[ShapurII]

A war could break out with Israel at any time. It's always in our interests for Israel's ABM interceptors to be depleted. This is obvious.

Dude, last time a war "broke out", i.e. Israel flattened our consulate in Syria, it took us over a month to figure out what had happened. Believe me, if Israel does something stupid, our decision makers will take their sweet time before they respond. And the Houthies then will have ample time to deplete Israel's SAMs.
But you ignored the main point. Why didn't they deplete Israeli air defenses before TP1 and TP2? Why now that nothing is on the horizon?

You are trying so hard to prove that these militias, or Arabs, are also doing something to further our interests and yet you can't find even one legit example.

PIJ does not have a significant presence in the West Bank. And in case you missed it Israel has been conducting a Gaza style razing of buildings campaign in the major resistance hubs in the West Bank, with the PA's help.

No, I haven't missed it but they aren't doing anything either. A new Intifada, maybe? After killing 60,000 of their compatriots? Maybe a strike, at least? If they're incapable of even that, why are we even wasting a penny on them?

 

[Persian Gulf]

Why now that nothing is on the horizon?

War is definitely on the horizon in 2025.

You are trying so hard to prove that these militias, or Arabs, are also doing something to further our interests and yet you can't find even one legit example.

I am not trying hard, I am just presenting facts. Houthis are depleting Israel's ABMs and this is a significant benefit. The lower their ABM stockpiles the less likely they will be to attack Iran. This is pretty basic.

No, I haven't missed it but they aren't doing anything either. A new Intifada, maybe? After killing 60,000 of their compatriots? Maybe a strike, at least? If they're incapable of even that, why are we even wasting a penny on them?

Now you are conflating PIJ with PA-ruled West Bank.

 

[ShapurII]

War is definitely on the horizon in 2025.

Not when we are negotiating with the US and both sides say that things are going well. Before the negotiations begin, yes. But I highly doubt that either side wants the negotiations to fail at this point. The US-Iran animosity haven't been so mundane in a long time.

I am not trying hard, I am just presenting facts. Houthis are depleting Israel's ABMs and this is a significant benefit. The lower their ABM stockpiles the less likely they will be to attack Iran. This is pretty basic.

Yes, they are depleting Israel's ABMs at a time that it is useless to do so, i.e. they are wasting our money (missiles given to them) for propaganda and publicity. They are improving their image in the Muslim world by firing these missiles.
Israel will reload these missiles slowly. It's not like Israelis will stop and will finally run out of them.
You again ignored my question. Why didn't they deplete Israel's ABMs before TP1 or TP2?

Now you are conflating PIJ with PA-ruled West Bank.

No, I am not. Both Hamas and PIJ are present in the West Bank in large numbers.
I never claimed they ruled the West Bank, if that's what confused you. I said that they are present there, and they are.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Yes, they are depleting Israel's ABMs at a time that it is useless to do so

you don't understand that it is never useless to deplete our main enemy's main defences, especially in a time when they are constantly threatening to attack us. this is pretty basic stuff. the fact you refuse to comprehend this suggests you are not being objective.

You again ignored my question. Why didn't they deplete Israel's ABMs before TP1 or TP2?

They have been firing missiles at Israel since October 2023.

 

[ShapurII]

you don't understand that it is never useless to deplete our main enemy's main defences, especially in a time when they are constantly threatening to attack us. this is pretty basic stuff. the fact you refuse to comprehend this suggests you are not being objective.

At what cost? I think you refuse to comprehend that there's a cost analysis involved.
And before you start, don't tell me that the unit cost of these missiles is X while the unit cost of Arrow-3 is Y. That sort of analysis is far from meaningful.

They have been firing missiles at Israel since October 2023.

Not at this rate. Feel free to prove me wrong.

 

[Persian Gulf]

At what cost? I think you refuse to comprehend that there's a cost analysis involved.
And before you start, don't tell me that the unit cost of these missiles is X while the unit cost of Arrow-3 is Y. That sort of analysis is far from meaningful.


Not at this rate. Feel free to prove me wrong.

the cost of depleting our primary enemy's strategic air defences without being directly involved ourselves is worth far more than whatever it costs to smuggle some missile parts into Yemen

I see very clear and tangible and substantial benefits for our own security and military posture here. if you don't then we have to agree to disagree

 

[ShapurII]

the cost of depleting our primary enemy's strategic air defences without being directly involved ourselves is worth far more than whatever it costs to smuggle some missile parts into Yemen

I see very clear and tangible and substantial benefits for our own security and military posture here. if you don't then we have to agree to disagree

Let's agree to disagree then. I'd rather spend this money on R&D or media image, even our ground forces and the IRIAF can use that money.