Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Menthol]

US will carpet bomb Iran until Iran re-opens the strait. They can close it. But have 0 chance in holding it

I heard that Iran is going to destroy all USA military bases in the Middle East.

What happened?

 

[r3alist]

Well 600 pages in this thread which tells me a lot of emotions. Havent bothered to read the thread, because it would be exhausting to scroll through emotional posts and most probably posts containing disinformation.

Im going to give my two cents, with the risk of this already having been said by a lot of people.
On the surface Irans air defence capabilites seem totally paralyzed. The damage to nuclear industry seem extensive, although we have to wait and see to get a true glimps of the extent of the damage and whether or not the critical infrastructure buried underground has survived.

But the material losses are secondary (even though painful to watch). What really has been the major disaster are the series of decisions and inaction by the political and military leadership in the last 20 months which has led up to this point.
Its not one mistake. Its not two. Not three. Its a series of REPEATED mistakes. Its a systematic failure and breakdown on multiple levels and crucial occassions. To mention a few would Irans ineffective response to restore deterrence after the bombing of the embassy in Syria, the bombing of Haniyeh in Tehran, the murder/decapitation of Hezbollahs entire military leadership, the ceasefire between Lebanon-Israel, only for Syria to get overrun the next day. There is something to be said about "use it or lose it".
Hezbollah restrained themselves in their northern front, and see where that got them. And Iran was restrained in its direct support and action.

The damage that could have been inflicted had they operated under a different strategic doctrine, would have meant a different power dynamic and deterrence equation. Yes they would have been weakened, but so would have the Israelis.
In war everyone is weakened but the side that gets relatively more weakened ends up loosing. Iran has been fighting this war like a someone giving light jabs in a boxing match, while the other dude uses iron gloves and punches as his life depends on it.

Its too late in the game for Iran to do anything meaningful. Its position has been battered regionally, with its allies severely weakened which limits their capability (and will) to help Iran, seeing as how Iran did not help them even if they were given the causus belli many times over by Israeli actions.

I dont see a way out of this. As I see it, there are just a few options. A total surrender, meaning conceding to every US demand (remember, Iran is an even weaker position now than they were yesterday, so additional demands may follow). Many probably view this as an impossibility, but let us remember that Khomeini "swallowed the poison pill" when he agreed to end the Iraq war. If regime survival is at stake, this is certainly plausible. The mullahs are incompetent but they are not irrational.
Another option would be to absorb these strikes. I dont see an effective Iranian response forthcoming in the near future, Israel/USA has total escalation dominance, but opt to leave the NPT and develop nukes.

Another option would be to stay on the current catastrophic path. Meaning to give the semblance of a punitive strike but for all purposes would be symbolic (like in TP1 and TP2), which would lead to the utter collapse of whatever little deterrence is left which would invite more Israeli freedom of action and savagery.

Those are the options as I see it realistically, if anyone has other option, I would be glad to hear them.
Suggestions of some state selling nukes to Iran (like Pakistan or Russia) I will not take as serious notions/suggestions.

Good post, I've not seen anyone make these points on this thread so far

 

[hyperman]

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More "Strategic Patience" Advice from Patarames.

"Don't hit back, its a trap". Iol

 

[OldTwilight]

Ffs, your supreme leader will be the end of your country.

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His location will be given to Israelis tonight ....

 

[Aziqbal]

Western nations win on surveillance, jamming , deception , electronic warfare , eves dropping and better use of traitors

In this area Iran is suffering

Americans and Israelis can see what Iran is doing from far away

And they don’t hesitate to take action.

 

[Menthol]

Nobody should be mocking Iranians at this time. Iran has every right to have nukes and whatnot. The idea that Israel can dictate every country based on their own threat assessment doesnt mean other should comply.

Hitler is remembered as someone who killed and maimed millions of Jews, Netanyahu will be remembered as someone who put jews life in danger for forever.

Do you not care about the Palestinians?

Hitler and Netanyahu are the same.

 

[the saint]

Supreme Idiot is responsible for all these.. Iranian people please get rid off this stupid old Mossad agent if not by choice but by deeds..

after oct 7 when ground invasion of Gaza began Israhell was at it's weakest, however Hizbollah, Iran didn't do anything except Hezbollah targeting some radars in border areas... Gaza genocided while Nasrallah and Hezbollah didn't take part in full might... only to become the next target... eventually Hezbollah was decaptated and Iran did nothing..next Syria fell, Iran did nothing....next Houthis were attacked day night and Iran remained silent...after all taken care of now it"s Iran's turn.. and they were not even prepared to the least.....

 

[nang2]

Well 600 pages in this thread which tells me a lot of emotions. Havent bothered to read the thread, because it would be exhausting to scroll through emotional posts and most probably posts containing disinformation.

Im going to give my two cents, with the risk of this already having been said by a lot of people.
On the surface Irans air defence capabilites seem totally paralyzed. The damage to nuclear industry seem extensive, although we have to wait and see to get a true glimps of the extent of the damage and whether or not the critical infrastructure buried underground has survived.

But the material losses are secondary (even though painful to watch). What really has been the major disaster are the series of decisions and inaction by the political and military leadership in the last 20 months which has led up to this point.
Its not one mistake. Its not two. Not three. Its a series of REPEATED mistakes. Its a systematic failure and breakdown on multiple levels and crucial occassions. To mention a few would Irans ineffective response to restore deterrence after the bombing of the embassy in Syria, the bombing of Haniyeh in Tehran, the murder/decapitation of Hezbollahs entire military leadership, the ceasefire between Lebanon-Israel, only for Syria to get overrun the next day. There is something to be said about "use it or lose it".
Hezbollah restrained themselves in their northern front, and see where that got them. And Iran was restrained in its direct support and action.

The damage that could have been inflicted had they operated under a different strategic doctrine, would have meant a different power dynamic and deterrence equation. Yes they would have been weakened, but so would have the Israelis.
In war everyone is weakened but the side that gets relatively more weakened ends up loosing. Iran has been fighting this war like a someone giving light jabs in a boxing match, while the other dude uses iron gloves and punches as his life depends on it.

Its too late in the game for Iran to do anything meaningful. Its position has been battered regionally, with its allies severely weakened which limits their capability (and will) to help Iran, seeing as how Iran did not help them even if they were given the causus belli many times over by Israeli actions.

I dont see a way out of this. As I see it, there are just a few options. A total surrender, meaning conceding to every US demand (remember, Iran is an even weaker position now than they were yesterday, so additional demands may follow). Many probably view this as an impossibility, but let us remember that Khomeini "swallowed the poison pill" when he agreed to end the Iraq war. If regime survival is at stake, this is certainly plausible. The mullahs are incompetent but they are not irrational.
Another option would be to absorb these strikes. I dont see an effective Iranian response forthcoming in the near future, (Israel/USA has total escalation dominance). Then opt to leave the NPT and develop nukes.

Another option would be to stay on the current catastrophic path. Meaning to give the semblance of a punitive strike but for all purposes would be symbolic (like in TP1 and TP2), which would lead to the utter collapse of whatever little deterrence is left which would invite more Israeli freedom of action and savagery.

Those are the options as I see it realistically, if anyone has other option, I would be glad to hear them.
Suggestions of some state selling nukes to Iran (like Pakistan or Russia) I will not take as serious notions/suggestions.

Until Iran test fires its first nuke, nobody takes Iran seriously. From the look of it now, it is just the next domino after Iraq, Libya and Syria. The entire Muslim region in the middle east would be under Israeli subjugation.

 

[Cryptonian]

I was under the impression that Iran's R&D was much better than it's neighbours, well that's what I've been hearing on this forum for years.

Yes. @Lulldapull eggsplain him dear. Missing your Iran pumping in the comment section here, Not in chitchat.

Oh paee don't fall for the hype on dat thread. True da iranis taken a hit, but its not catastrophic or anything.

They had decades to disperse/ hide go deep with their nuke/ missile/ drone infra.

They were anticipating this.

 

[muz]

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[ShapurII]

Ffs, your supreme leader will be the end of your country.

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The Supreme Leader has to be assassinated by the Army or the IRGC.

Or even better, he should be arrested to be tried.

 

[Sarhang]

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More "Strategic Patience" Advice from Patarames.

"Don't hit back, its a trap". Iol

He is just a jobless refugee sitting in some Western country receiving welfare from the state.

Shameful

 

[Path-Finder]

check this german comedy out! Iran attacked isnotreal, what clowns.

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[RescueRanger]

Yes. @Lulldapull eggsplain him dear. Missing your Iran pumping in the comment section here.

Pre-emptive striking here, any off topic randi rona will be dealt with surgically.

 

[r3alist]

I put that question to Iranian members some days ago, they replied that Russia has never delivered best equipment to Iran and just uses its relationship as part of bargaining with West. China stays away for fear of secondary sanctions. Both Russia/China try to play balancing act with GCC/West and hence Iran ends up with only empty promises.

It's hard to believe that a nation like Iran can't find some more solid friends

Or at least some friends that can help in some way

SIM two of just chosen the path of we will make missiles and more missiles and more missiles