Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[HAIDER]

Iran better focus on traitors, Israeli spies and nuclear program.

 

[gambit]

Something I was pondering for awhile today. Iran is known to have substantial earthquake activity. In addition to depth, whose to say the engineers did not design the structures to sit on some type of shock-absorbing foundation.

That is not what I am talking about.

As I am currently in the semicon industry, I know about seismic isolation of our test platforms. But am asking about the ground outside the underground facilities. How stable are they? Sinkholes, maybe?

 

[Garcia Sea]

We must not forget that Iran's centrifuge technology and its scale are still very immature.
In many advanced countries, it takes less than a year to install and operate the centrifuges necessary to produce enough enriched uranium for 20 nuclear weapons annually in their enrichment plants. This is because the amount of nuclear fuel consumed in nuclear power generation is enormous, and the small amount required for nuclear weapons is not an issue.
On the other hand, Iran's uranium enrichment pace has been as slow as a tortoise, which led to a fatal failure.
Considering Iran's national strength, it would honestly take at least 10 years to rebuild.
It goes without saying that the U.S. claims it would take only a few months to rebuild because they plan to attack again by August.

 

[HAIDER]

Exclusive: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say​

By Natasha Bertrand, Katie Bo Lillis and Zachary Cohen, CNN
6 minute read



CNN —
The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an early US intelligence assessment that was described by seven people briefed on it.

The assessment, which has not been previously reported, was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm. It is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by US Central Command in the aftermath of the US strikes, one of the sources said.

The analysis of the damage to the sites and the impact of the strikes on Iran’s nuclear ambitions is ongoing, and could change as more intelligence becomes available. But the early findings are at odds with President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the strikes “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also said on Sunday that Iran’s nuclear ambitions “have been obliterated.”


Two of the people familiar with the assessment said Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed. One of the people said the centrifuges are largely “intact.” Another source said that the intelligence assessed enriched uranium was moved out of the sites prior to the US strikes.

“So the (DIA) assessment is that the US set them back maybe a few months, tops,” this person added.

The White House acknowledged the existence of the assessment but said they disagreed with it.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN in a statement: “This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong and was classified as ‘top secret’ but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community. The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program. Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”

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Trump, who’s in the Netherlands attending this week’s NATO summit, pushed back on CNN’s report in a Truth Social post. “One of the most successful military strikes in history,” Trump wrote in the all-caps post adding, “The nuclear sites in Iran are completely destroyed!”

The US military has said the operation went as planned and that it was an “overwhelming success.”

It is still early for the US to have a comprehensive picture of the impact of the strikes, and none of the sources described how the DIA assessment compares to the view of other agencies in the intelligence community. The US is continuing to pick up intelligence, including from within Iran as they assess the damage.

Israel had been carrying out strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities for days leading up to the US military operation but claimed to need the US’ 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs to finish the job. While US B-2 bombers dropped over a dozen of the bombs on two of the nuclear facilities, the Fordow Fuel Enrichment plant and the Natanz Enrichment Complex, the bombs did not fully eliminate the sites’ centrifuges and highly enriched uranium, according to the people familiar with the assessment.

Instead, the impact to all three sites — Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan — was largely restricted to aboveground structures, which were severely damaged, the sources said. That includes the sites’ power infrastructure and some of the aboveground facilities used to turn uranium into metal for bomb-making.

The Israeli assessment of the impact of the US strikes also found less damage on Fordow than expected. However, Israeli officials believe the combination of US and Israeli military action on multiple nuclear sites set back the Iranian nuclear program by two years, assuming they are able to rebuild it unimpeded which Israel would not allow. But Israel had also stated publicly before the US military operation that Iran’s program had been set back by two years.

Hegseth also told CNN, “Based on everything we have seen — and I’ve seen it all — our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons. Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target and worked perfectly. The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran; so anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the President and the successful mission.“

On Tuesday morning, Trump repeated his belief the damage from the strikes was significant.

“I think it’s been completely demolished,” he said, adding, “Those pilots hit their targets. Those targets were obliterated, and the pilots should be given credit.”

Asked about the possibility of Iran rebuilding its nuclear program, Trump responded, “That place is under rock. That place is demolished.”

While Trump and Hegseth have been bullish about the success of the strikes, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine said Sunday that while the damage assessment was still ongoing it would be “way too early” to comment on whether Iran still retains some nuclear capabilities.

Republican Rep. Michael McCaul, the chairman emeritus of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, would not echo Trump’s claims that the Iranian program had been “obliterated” when pressed by CNN on Tuesday.

“I’ve been briefed on this plan in the past, and it was never meant to completely destroy the nuclear facilities, but rather cause significant damage,” McCaul told CNN, referring to the US military plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. “But it was always known to be a temporary setback.”

Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies who has closely reviewed commercial satellite imagery of the strike sites, agreed with the assessment that the attacks do not appear to have ended Iran’s nuclear program.

“The ceasefire came without either Israel or the United States being able to destroy several key underground nuclear facilities, including near Natanz, Isfahan and Parchin,” Lewis said, referring to the ceasefire between Israel and Iran that Trump announced on Monday. Parchin is a separate nuclear complex near Tehran.

“These facilities could serve as the basis for the rapid reconstitution of Iran’s nuclear program.”

Earlier on Tuesday, classified briefings for both the House and Senate on the operation were canceled.

The all-Senate briefing has been moved to Thursday, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

Two separate sources familiar told CNN the briefing for all House lawmakers has also been postponed. It was not immediately clear why it was delayed or when it would be rescheduled.

Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan of New York said on X on Tuesday that “Trump just cancelled a classified House briefing on the Iran strikes with zero explanation. The real reason? He claims he destroyed ‘all nuclear facilities and capability;’ his team knows they can’t back up his bluster and BS.”

As CNN has reported, there have long been questions about whether the US’ bunker-buster bombs, known as Massive Ordnance Penetrators, would be able to fully destroy Iran’s highly fortified nuclear sites that are buried deep underground — particularly at Fordow and Isfahan, Iran’s largest nuclear research complex.

Notably, the US struck Isfahan with Tomahawk missiles launched from a submarine instead of a bunker-buster bomb. That is because there was an understanding that the bomb would likely not successfully penetrate Isfahan’s lower levels, which are buried even deeper than Fordow, one of the sources said.

US officials believe Iran also maintains secret nuclear facilities that were not targeted in the strike and remain operational, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

This story has been updated with additional details.

CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, Jim Sciutto, Lauren Fox, Annie Grayer and DJ Judd contributed reporting.

 

[HAIDER]

victory while US intel reports Iran nuclear sites not destroyed​

Middle East
As a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel took effect on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed his army's damage to Iran's nuclear and military constituted a "historic victory." US President Donald Trump later slammed a US intelligence report for concluding his strikes over the weekend only set back Iran's nuclear program by a few months, contradicting Trump's assertion that it had been "obliterated."
Issued on: 25/06/2025 - 05:25

3 minReading time

By:
FRANCE 24
/
FRANCE 24

US President Donald Trump meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on April 7, 2025. © Saul Loeb, AFP
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a "historic victory" against Iran despite a US intelligence report concluding that American strikes set back Tehran's nuclear program by just a few months.

Iran and Israel agreed a ceasefire on Tuesday ending 12 days of tit-for-tat strikes, after US President Donald Trump joined the conflict with bunker-busting bombs at the weekend that he said destroyed key Iranian nuclear sites.

A classified preliminary US intelligence report however, concluded that American strikes on Iran set back its nuclear program by just a few months.

Trump rebuffed that claim on Tuesday, posting on his Truth Social account that "THE NUCLEAR SITES IN IRAN ARE COMPLETELY DESTROYED!"

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the authenticity of the assessment but said it was "flat-out wrong".

In an address to the nation after the ceasefire announcement, Netanyahu said "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon".

"We have thwarted Iran's nuclear project," he said. "And if anyone in Iran tries to rebuild it, we will act with the same determination, with the same intensity, to foil any attempt."

Israel had said its bombing campaign, which began on June 13, was aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, an ambition Tehran has consistently denied.

Israel's military said that its strikes had set back Iran's nuclear programme "by years".

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02:03
After Trump angrily berated both sides for early violations of the truce on Tuesday, Tehran announced it would respect the terms of the deal if Israel did the same, while Israel said it had refrained from further strikes.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was willing to return to negotiations over its nuclear programme, but that his country would continue to "assert its legitimate rights" to the peaceful use of atomic energy.

Leaked intel​

US media on Tuesday cited people familiar with the Defense Intelligence Agency findings as saying the American strikes did not fully eliminate Iran's centrifuges or stockpile of enriched uranium.

The strikes sealed off entrances to some facilities without destroying underground buildings, according to the report.

White House Press Secretary Leavitt responded on social media: "The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran's nuclear program."

While Iran and Israel have been locked in a shadow war for decades, their 12-day conflict was by far the most destructive confrontation between them.

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08:41
Israeli strikes hit nuclear and military targets -- killing scientists and senior military figures -- as well as residential areas, prompting waves of Iranian missile fire on Israel.

The war culminated in US strikes on underground Iranian nuclear sites using bunker-busting bombs -- which Israel lacks -- followed by an Iranian reprisal targeting the largest US military facility in the Middle East.

Trump shrugged off that response as "weak", thanking Tehran for giving advance notice and announcing the contours of the ceasefire just hours later.

'Everyone is tired'​

Some Israelis welcomed the prospect of a truce.

"Everyone is tired. We just want to have some peace of mind," said Tel Aviv resident Tammy Shel. "For us, for the Iranian people, for the Palestinians, for everyone in the region."

In Iran, people remained uncertain whether the peace would hold.

Amir, 28, fled from Tehran to the Caspian Sea coast and told AFP by phone, "I really don't know... about the ceasefire but honestly, I don't think things will return to normal."

Israeli strikes on Iran killed at least 610 civilians and wounded more than 4,700, according to the health ministry

24 people in Israel have been killed since the conflict began, according to official figures and rescuers.

The international community reacted with cautious optimism to the truce.

Saudi Arabia and the European Union welcomed Trump's announcement, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia hoped "that this will be a sustainable ceasefire".

But French President Emmanuel Macron warned there was an "increased" risk that Iran would attempt to enrich uranium secretly following the strikes on its nuclear sites.

After the truce was announced, Israel's military chief Eyal Zamir said Israel's focus would now shift back to Gaza.

The Israeli opposition, the Palestinian Authority and the main group representing the families of Israeli hostages all called for a Gaza truce to complement the Iran ceasefire.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)

 

[Hayabusa]

I don't tend to speculate when I don't know, I will say I just don't know.

Did Iran have 85% HEU? Maybe, I don't know, and no one is know for sure, the issue here is, going back to your previous question, now assuming that the cake is intact and store somewhere safe, and assuming you have stored all the test log, the important question now is, whether the centrifuge stopped or damaged. Because it's not plug and play, you can't put it back up and put the uranium cake back in and it goes back from wherever you take it out before. So if that 6 months or so delay is on the fuel side (ie, the centrifuge is not damage and you just taken the fuel out), that's easy to retify, you just need to refuel the centrifuge, but if the centrifuge was damaged and need 6 months to repair? That's going take a long time to recalibrate the centrifuge after making it operational again, sure, it will not be decades like it was before, but it is going to be year, if not years for Iran to pick back up the process. And again, that is assuming the fuel cake is intact

It didn't matter if they had a replacement facilities, because you are going to need to fine tune the centrifuge to spin in a particular way to keep the U238 separating from U235, that's going to take a long time to do because you are talking about adjustment in micron unit

Your explanation makes sense in technical terms. However, I would caution against assuming Iran is working without contingencies. Based on their nuclear history and how they've adapted under years of sabotage, cyberattacks (e.g., Stuxnet), assassinations, and sanctions, it's reasonable to believe that Iran has implemented strategic redundancies. If anything, the last thing Israel and US would want to, is to underestimate its program.

My logical though is if they have domestic production of their own centrifuges, then they probably have some backup of it for their contingency. So even if its damaged beyond 6 months, as long as they have a supply of replacement stocked up, all they have to do replace it and calibrate it to its needs.

So to say recovery time will take years seems far fetched to me for a country like Iran that had been on this program since the 90s. I would give it a maximum of a year for it to get its house in order. But again, my logical thought it also based on Iran's desperation to get a bomb now, which has probably sky-rocketed after the war due to the threat on the leadership's own existence. The timing does not include covert or straight up military actions on its program in the future.


Also to note, even if we try not speculate, our discussions in the end revolve around speculation and theories because of the lack of information we have on the current status of Iran's nuclear enrichment plans as well as their possible contigencies in case of disruption. (E.g a year to a few years disruption from your POV). Whether we like it or not, we already have an opinion on what we feel the direction of the nuclear program is and not just " I dont know" in the face of lack of information.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

That is not what I am talking about.

As I am currently in the semicon industry, I know about seismic isolation of our test platforms. But am asking about the ground outside the underground facilities. How stable are they? Sinkholes, maybe?

Motorola veteran here.

Ground outside the underground facilities? Will be site-specific of course.

 

[gambit]

I didn't say that.
The IAEA confirms that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, so who is lying?

Iran is lying.

If I buy all, or most, of the components of a rifle, will you believe me if I say I am not pursuing a weapon?

So far, no one have adequately explain what is Iran's needs for %60 enrichment of U-235. The fact that none came forth only adds suspicion and further support the belief that the US/Israel air strikes were necessary.

Under the current NPT terms, I do not need centrifuges. I can get %5 enrichment for energy from the international community.

- Aircraft carriers
- Submarines
- Missiles

Currently, only those three items can use %90 enriched U-235. We know Iran do not have aircraft carriers and subs that requires long duration energy sources, aka nuclear reactors. That remains nuclear weapons or item 3. Am sure YOU are logical person.

 

[flyingorca]

Yes, only about $500 billions, but probably one trillion, and about 10 yrs of labor -- gone.

Not extensive at all.

Did not know vintage f14 f4 S200 are worth 500 billion dollars

 

[gambit]

Did not know vintage f14 f4 S200 are worth 500 billion dollars

Those are conservative estimates for Iran's nuclear weapons program.

 

[Frogen]

The idea of fully pivoting East was tried during Ahmadinejad's presidency. It didn't work well. Both China and Russia allowed 4 rounds of UN Security Council resolutions to be passed on Iran. So, it's not that easy.

Almost all nuclear-armed countries are reluctant to support the emergence of a new nuclear power. This doesn’t just apply to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — even Pakistan and other Muslim countries in the Middle East might not welcome it. It could potentially lead to broader nuclear proliferation in the region. Iran needs to seriously assess whether its nuclear program over the years has brought more benefits or more harm.

That said, I don’t think you should interpret China and Russia allowing sanctions against Iran to pass as a failure of Iran’s "Pivoting East" strategy. What Iran needs is to improve its strategic environment, and the most effective way to do that is by tying its national interests to those of other countries.

Pakistan’s leadership understood how vital energy security is to China. Through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), they’ve built a relationship where both countries are deeply invested in each other’s success. Right now, Iran — aside from its network of regional proxies — hasn’t established that kind of mutual-interest partnership with any major power.

 

[gambit]

Israel will continue to commit genocide and terrorize Muslims as long as they’re armed and supported by the US.

Today America is like the Soviet Union in its dying days. A morally degenerate and financially bankrupt entity that has lost all moral authority in the world. Like the USSR the only thing it has is an oversized military that it uses to terrorize the world.

Like the USSR just a matter of time before it falls into the dustbin of history.

The Soviets had US, a peer in many ways, and a superior in many other ways.

So far, we have not found any peer, let alone superior.

 

[StrategicBear]

And most leftists as well, because they rightly see this as imperial aggression.

And this is generally true for most leftists around the world, most of whom may not like Iran, but acknowledge it is the victim of imperialist aggression.

I'm a leftist too.

 

[gambit]

If i am iranian strategist, i would go full hypersonic, no need for massive balistic stocks of various missiles, you would achieve two things with that, economy of missiles would be improved and operational ease for your forces, you can achieve more precise impacts with less missiles and at the same time decrease exposure for launchers.
only what should be kept of conventional balistic program would be development of ICBM capabilities for civilian purposes and strategic reasons.

As an ex US Air Force guy, I hope Iran call you tomorrow and offer a consultancy.

Please....Please...Please...Please...Iran call this guy....

 

[StrategicBear]

That is not what I am talking about.

As I am currently in the semicon industry, I know about seismic isolation of our test platforms. But am asking about the ground outside the underground facilities. How stable are they? Sinkholes, maybe?

Why is this gambit dude suddenly active posting on this thread all of a sudden? He wasn't this active posting here during the first 3 days of this War, so what changed?