India Lucky Not To Lose More Than Four Rafales

[Windjammer]

There several lists of serial numbers going around so I don't think any are accurate unless it comes directly from a credible source

All I can say is Syed Zohaib in the past has been very credible and revealed many firsts....

 

[MH.Yang]

The weird thing is they keep selling them Rafale and other equipment. When they have proven unreliable. Scorpene debacle anyone?

The real reason is that the Rafale has actually been the best MRCA the world can buy without political conditions.

 

[Alex]

There several lists of serial numbers going around so I don't think any are accurate unless it comes directly from a credible source

Directly from a credible source? If you're thinking Indian authorities are going to admit and disclose their losses, you have to wait for a long time.

 

[Rational Philosopher]

Directly from a credible source? If you're thinking Indian authorities are going to admit and disclose their losses, you have to wait for a long time.

No, it would mean something directly from the Pakistan Air Force at least

 

[r3alist]

That comment was in response to his comment, just as a light-hearted response; it had nothing to do with any win, loss or demoralisation. You're reading too much into it.

Of course, balance takeaway is necessary. My efforts are for Pakistanis to understand their country's approach and why I think it is counterproductive against an enemy like India. Pakistan's restraint is taken as weakness by the Indians. They will keep testing Pakistan because they don't take Pakistan's attacks as deterrence. Pakistan needs to create deterrence urgently to stop India from repeating the same mantra.
It is as simple as that.

Neither country can achieve anything near maximalist aims these days, that's my feeling or view.

However big India might get relative to Pakistan, China will increasingly be in a position to ensure Pakistan has a deterrent threat , at least, likely much more

What changes China's equation most likely is if India excepts it is nowhere near arrival and starts acting like a country NOT attempting to be arrival, or even a civilizational state

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Their top jets serial# starts with BS. No further explanations are required...

Add to the the blown off tail of the lead Rafale should be pretty convincing that aircraft is no longer in flying condition.

 

[Alex]

Neither country can achieve anything near maximalist aims these days, that's my feeling or view.

However big India might get relative to Pakistan, China will increasingly be in a position to ensure Pakistan has a deterrent threat , at least, likely much more

What changes China's equation most likely is if India excepts it is nowhere near arrival and starts acting like a country NOT attempting to be arrival, or even a civilizational state

Maximalism is a disaster for a nation. Especially if you are India. You are not really strong or powerful but perceive yourself to be, to the extent you think you can bully other countries around. Bullying BD or Maldives could work to a certain extent, but even countries like Maldives and BD have ultimately kicked you out and have gone out of your influence altogether. Nepal did the same.
Alas, extremely self-deluded Indians don't get it at all. They should have realised by now, if they have any brains and are not led by a false sense of superiority, they certainly can't bully Pakistan. As for China, it is well above their pay grade; to an extent, even Pakistan is too. But because they have this tunnel vision regarding Pakistan, i.e., poor, beggars, etc., they can't see beyond their noses due to their misguided preconceived ideas.

 

[Oscar]

Well that may be true. But the point is the Indian govt is capable of spinning literally anything as a victory to pacify the Indian population. So losing Kashmir is not even remotely an existential threat to the Indian state, the way it is for Pakistan.

The Indian state(or people) isn’t always top of mind just as the Pakistani state(or peoples) is often not top of mind in terms of leadership on both sides.

 

[TAC]

All extreme opinions shouldn’t be cause for offense.

The discussions at Sanober institute were pointing to an interesting metric. To quote the Dark knight.

Madness is like Gravity - all it takes is one little push.

So based on what happened on the 10th - Pakistan’s leadership took a calculus that it was not dealing with rational actors so what if you crossed beyond a certain point and those actors decided to launch a desperate mass attack through Cholistan(which they might still do) and the sea or worse still try to hit nuclear facilities to maybe prompt a nuclear response from Pakistan. A response they might use to go from that already maddening escalation ladder to perhaps launch everything at Pakistan and so on?
The OODA loop for a nuclear decision for both Pakistan and India is under 7 minutes.

They’re already using dual use systems conveniently so how can Pakistan tell besides intelligence that that is coming is either conventional or nuclear?

Either Pakistan launches an all out or a nuclear weapon but what if the Indian system isn’t nuclear? Then what do you tell the world?

It’s a mind boggling issue.

So you go as far as your assessment of the other side’s capacity for madness goes. Remember, the IAF basically grounded itself when the PaF attacked giving it full air superiority during Bunyan al Marsoos and only lobbed Brahmos until the PAF vacated and then launched extreme low level(and well executed) strikes with Scalp and one other system.

Imagine Modi or Amit Shah or the more hawkish terrorists in their midst - what if they were to say Pakistan had crossed the line and its time to launch a nuclear weapon?
Their power structure lies solely with civilians so if they decide to go then they go. They don’t have a varied NSC(to Pakistan’s “ironic” credit) with military, bureaucracy and some political representation.

So while I find MK’s views overly brash and extremist he has a point - what if in this case there is too much “restraint” and caution on assuming there is a lower threshold for Indian response?

What if they are blustering as well and having much much much more to lose are more open to an exit if properly beaten down.

Some part of it is inherited memory from 71, from Kargil, brasstacks and Parakaram.

Where they saw the Indians come back with a massive response and every branch was outmatched.

This isn’t the case today nor was it so in 2019.

Pakistan isn’t really that outmatched - but perhaps they don’t know that yet.

What if to get their maddened heads to be a little more sane and “Sindoor continues” to calm down. You did need to hurt them even more at every decision making level so if their political ideals did go to the IAF or IA or IN - their military commanders hit back and tell them we are not prepared to lose another 30 jets, a fifth of our forward deployed ammo and a ship.

Just food for thought

Thanks for your perspective & thoughts. Appreciated as always. I agree with you in every aspect of what you’ve said. Indeed Pakistan faces a reckless and unpredictable enemy but none of this justifies changing the thread title to ‘PAF Cowardice’ which is what that member was calling for, then talking about if PAF pilots cut sheep’s throats and who has worked with Israeli’s, when questioned. I find the first part stupid and offensive and the second irrelevant drivel not worth the effort to read or reply.

 

[Taimoor]

The number of shot jets is Six. The number of damaged Jets is at least double of this number. TRuth will eventually come out.

Heard some high value targets were taken out on ground.

Anything exposed to the elements in Indian airbases, would have received the treatment of BREK shockwaves.

 

[Oscar]

Thanks for your perspective & thoughts. Appreciated as always. I agree with you in every aspect of what you’ve said. Indeed Pakistan faces a reckless and unpredictable enemy but none of this justifies changing the thread title to ‘PAF Cowardice’ which is what that member was calling for, then talking about if PAF pilots cut sheep’s throats and who has worked with Israeli’s, when questioned. I find the first part stupid and offensive and the second irrelevant drivel not worth the effort to read or reply.

We all have varied ways of expressing and reaching emotional extremes.

 

[Oscar]

Add to the the blown off tail of the lead Rafale should be pretty convincing that aircraft is no longer in flying condition.

That was a technical and more precisely a maintenance issue. The Rafale pilot had expertly dodged the missile but the extreme maneuvering loosened screws thanks to manufacturing defect by Dassault.

Which is why Indian French residents are extremely confused to either their baguette in anger, slap themselves with it or shove it in a dark and steamy place.

 

[Windjammer]

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[Sinnerman108]

Thanks for your perspective & thoughts. Appreciated as always. I agree with you in every aspect of what you’ve said. Indeed Pakistan faces a reckless and unpredictable enemy but none of this justifies changing the thread title to ‘PAF Cowardice’ which is what that member was calling for, then talking about if PAF pilots cut sheep’s throats and who has worked with Israeli’s, when questioned. I find the first part stupid and offensive and the second irrelevant drivel not worth the effort to read or reply.

Add Shameless to the list.

When IAF was grounded, ( and I can summarize why they were grounded, and they know they will be grounded again the same way);

we had the option to humiliate them, we could have seriously hurt them for the next 10 years; we didn't.
In the name of not escalating.

How did the Hindu-stanis respond to this gesture of kindness ?
They used cruise missiles on our bases,
Bases which were hosting F-16s, that were not even used in combat against India.

This is the nature of our enemy.

 

[Ali_Baba]

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Damn - damn .. looks like a "late decision" to send over the planes. They are sending over a IL-78 over as well ( it is listed as SP, so not sure if it will be visible or not on the airfield for the display ) !!!

Too late for me to book a ticket( i normally go every year but i made some plans since there was noting interesting this year to me), hopefully someone else will go and take some good piccies.



The links below confirm the details :

Confirmed Aircraft at The Royal International Air Tattoo

Confirmed Aircraft

www.airtattoo.com

PAC JF-17C Thunder

PAC JF-17C Thunder

www.airtattoo.com