Indonesian International Commercial Trade Thread

Rupiah Back Strengthened After the Certainty of Tariffs, the Dollar Dropped to Rp16.200

Elvan Widyatama, CNBC Indonesia
08 July 2025 15:06

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Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia -

The rupiah exchange rate closed stronger against the US dollar. Citing Refinitiv, the rupiah-to-US dollar exchange rate on Tuesday’s (July 8, 2025) trading closed at IDR 16,200 per USD, up 0.15%.


This aligns with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which weakened by 0.27% to 97.21 as of 3:00 PM WIB.

Rupiah to USD = Rupiah seen getting strengthen since end of May
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The rupiah movement today is quite volatile, at the time of the opening of the trade, the rupiah had dropped to the position of Rp16,265 / US$ or a correction of 0.25%, after which the rupiah began to move up until finally closed strengthened.

Today's market is overshadowed by the latest news on U.S. trade tariffs just announced by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump sent a letter to several countries including Indonesia on the latest tariff setting. Surprisingly, Indonesia is subject to a tariff of 32% which will be effective from August 1, 2025.

This means that the Indonesian government’s efforts during the 90-day negotiations with Trump representatives became meaningless. In total there are 14 countries sent letters about this latest tariff.

Concerns over the continued impact of unilateral trade policies and the potential slowdown of the global economy make market participants tend to be waiting and seeing, especially in addressing currency movements and bond yields.

 

Prabowo Courts EU Leaders in Brussels to Finalize Zero-Tariff Trade Deal​


Martin Bagya Kertiyasa, Heru Andriyanto

July 13, 2025 | 12:55 pm

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President Prabowo Subianto salutes on the stairs of the presidential plane before travelling overseas at Halim Perdanakusuma Air Force Base in Jakarta, July 8, 2025. (Photo courtesy of the Cabinet Secretariat)


Jakarta. President Prabowo Subianto arrived in Brussels on Saturday for high-level talks with European Union leaders, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, as Indonesia pushes to finalize a landmark trade deal aimed at eliminating tariffs on its exports to the bloc.


The visit follows stalled negotiations with the United States, where Indonesia faces a 32 percent “reciprocal tariff” imposed by former President Donald Trump.


Prabowo was accompanied by Chief Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto -- who led the earlier US negotiations -- along with Investment Minister Rosan Roeslani, Cabinet Secretary Teddy Indra Wijaya, and Trade Minister Budi Santoso.


Airlangga said the Brussels trip is focused on concluding the long-delayed Indonesia-European Union Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which has been under negotiation for nine years and is now at the ratification stage.

“This agreement marks a new milestone amid uncertainties in Indonesia-EU economic ties,” Airlangga said in a video statement broadcast Sunday by the State Secretariat’s YouTube channel.

Once ratified, CEPA will eliminate tariffs on a substantial share of bilateral trade. “Indonesian goods will enter the European market with zero percent tariffs,” Airlangga said, noting that the official signing is scheduled for the third quarter of 2025 in Jakarta.


He added that the deal comes as global economic and geopolitical dynamics shift: “Indonesia is set to become the EU’s strategic partner as we progress toward OECD membership. Indonesia’s economy will continue its strong growth, and they see Indonesia as ASEAN’s economic anchor -- the gateway to the region.”


Saturday’s visit marks Airlangga’s second trip to Brussels in two months, following a final round of CEPA negotiations last month, where both sides resolved remaining technical issues.

Airlangga’s announcement came after a meeting with European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maroš Šefčovič in Brussels.


The EU is Indonesia’s fifth-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $30.1 billion in 2024. Indonesia posted a $4.5 billion trade surplus with the EU last year.


“Indonesia and the EU recognize this as a critical moment,” Airlangga said during his earlier visit. “Our key commodities complement rather than compete. Finalizing this agreement will jointly strengthen global supply chains.”


Zero Tariffs
Under CEPA, 80 percent of Indonesia’s exports to the EU are expected to enjoy zero tariffs within one to two years of implementation. Sectors set to benefit include labor-intensive industries such as footwear, textiles, and garments, as well as palm oil, fisheries, renewable energy, and electric vehicles.


During negotiations, the EU raised concerns over local content requirements (TKDN), automotive sector access, critical minerals, and investment incentives.


Indonesia, in turn, pressed for equitable treatment of its fishery exports, seeking parity with ASEAN neighbors such as Thailand and the Philippines. Airlangga said the EU had agreed to ensure a level playing field for Indonesian fishery products.

On the EU’s deforestation regulations, Commissioner Šefčovič assured Indonesian officials that special consideration would be given -- a pledge Airlangga said would safeguard Indonesia’s forest-based exports.


The Indonesian government estimates that CEPA could boost its exports to the EU by over 50 percent within three to four years by improving market access and removing key trade barriers.


 
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We just switch

1. Refined oil : We buy lot from Singapore, now goes directly to USA
2. Wheat : We have huge global business that uses wheat as our food production is huge and export to whole world. Basically switch from other countries Wheat into USA Wheat
3. Passenger Plane: Our state owned airline companies are all in expansion mode, we will buy Boeing 777 (proven design) instead of Airbus

Our farmer dont grow Wheat for this Indonesian made food

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We just switch

1. Refined oil : We buy lot from Singapore, now goes directly to USA
2. Wheat : We have huge global business that uses wheat as our food production is huge and export to whole world. Basically switch from other countries Wheat into USA Wheat
3. Passenger Plane: Our state owned airline companies are all in expansion mode, we will buy Boeing 777 (proven design) instead of Airbus

Pertamina to Phase Out Fuel Imports from Singapore Following Government Order​


The Jakarta Globe

May 11, 2025 | 11:14 pm

Jakarta. State-owned energy company Pertamina confirmed on Sunday that it will follow the government’s directive to gradually reduce and eventually stop fuel imports from Singapore, shifting its supply sources to other countries.


Fadjar Djoko Santoso, Pertamina’s spokesman, said the company is still waiting for more detailed instructions from the government before implementing the policy.


“In principle, we are following the government’s directives,” Fadjar told Kompas. “While awaiting formal instructions, we will conduct a comprehensive assessment of the policy, including its logistical cost implications,” he added.


The move comes after Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia on Friday announced the plan to phase out fuel imports from Singapore, which currently accounts for around 60 percent of Indonesia’s total fuel imports.

Bahlil criticized Singapore’s pricing strategy, noting that the country sells fuel to Indonesia at prices similar to those from Middle Eastern suppliers, despite its geographic proximity.


“After reviewing it myself, I found the price to be the same as oil from the Middle East. That’s why we’re considering alternative suppliers,” Bahlil said, without providing further details.

Indonesia is also exploring new fuel import deals with the United States as part of a broader effort to ease trade tensions and tariff barriers left over from the Donald Trump administration. As part of that arrangement, Indonesia has agreed to purchase refined fuel, crude oil, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the US, Bahlil noted.


The shift away from Singapore is expected to begin in November, with imports from the city-state projected to be reduced by up to 60 percent.


To accommodate longer-distance imports, the government plans to establish a large oil terminal, which will help minimize logistical costs when sourcing fuel from farther suppliers.


Earlier this week, President Prabowo Subianto revealed that Indonesia currently spends nearly $40 billion annually on oil imports. He reiterated his administration’s goal to achieve energy independence in the coming years.

 
We just switch

1. Refined oil : We buy lot from Singapore, now goes directly to USA
2. Wheat : We have huge global business that uses wheat as our food production is huge and export to whole world. Basically switch from other countries Wheat into USA Wheat
3. Passenger Plane: Our state owned airline companies are all in expansion mode, we will buy Boeing 777 (proven design) instead of Airbus

Our farmer dont grow Wheat for this Indonesian made food

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Why do we import refined oil ? Because our demands is huge, we have 287 million people as of now, biggest car market in South East Asia since long time ago until now. Our domestic production of both crude and refined oil only able to supply around 60 % of our total needs



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Competitive US Tariffs than Vietnam’s 20% Deal​

July 3, 2025 | 10:26 pm

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Finance Minister Sri Mulyani attends a bilateral meeting with US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent in Washington DC on April 24, 2025. (Photo Courtesy of @smindrawati)



Jakarta. The Indonesian government is seeking lower import tariffs from the United States than those recently granted to Vietnam, in an effort to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian products in the US market.


Vietnam secured a new tariff agreement with the US this week, with duties set at 20 percent, down from an initial 46 percent proposed by former President Donald Trump in April. Trump announced the revised deal on Truth Social on Thursday, saying it was the result of direct talks with Vietnam’s top leader, To Lam, ahead of a July 9 deadline.


Indonesia, meanwhile, is still in the process of negotiating a similar deal with the US, aiming to reduce tariffs currently set at 32 percent -- excluding the 10 percent baseline tariff.


“We hope to achieve a rate lower than Vietnam’s, which stands between 20 and 40 percent,” said Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto during a press conference in Jakarta on Thursday.

The proposed tariff reduction is part of Indonesia’s broader effort to secure better access for its exports to the US and strengthen its trade position amid intensifying global competition.

The Indonesian government has proposed boosting imports from the United States by up to $34 billion as part of ongoing negotiations, Airlannga said.


This includes the purchase of US energy products with a potential value reaching $15.5 billion.


“We’re offering to purchase goods worth more than what the US trade deficit is -- $34 billion in total, compared to the $19 billion deficit,” he said.


 
Looks like a good deal for Indonesia on the surface, but is is not clear how the transhipment tariffs would work. If China is at 30%, will Chinese goods transhipped from Indonesia be at 30% of 30%+19%. President Trump's language suggests the latter.
 
Looks like a good deal for Indonesia on the surface, but is is not clear how the transhipment tariffs would work. If China is at 30%, will Chinese goods transhipped from Indonesia be at 30% of 30%+19%. President Trump's language suggests the latter.

We are not transhipment country, that should be directed to Singapore and Malaysia that both have huge port in Malacca Strait and to Vietnam/Thailand/ Cambodia that have land border to China
 
We are not transhipment country, that should be directed to Singapore and Malaysia that both have huge port in Malacca Strait and to Vietnam/Thailand that have land border to China
Yeah, but if existing transhipment routes are closed, the Chinese will look for new ones like Inonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc, but it looks like the US will ensure that the new deals dont allow this.
 
Yeah, but if existing transhipment routes are closed, the Chinese will look for new ones like Inonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc, but it looks like the US will ensure that the new deals dont allow this.

Not in our interest either
 
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Prabowo’s Quick Call with Trump Leads to Major Trade Breakthrough​




Celvin Moniaga Sipahutar


July 16, 2025 | 9:37 pm

1752723976393.webp
This undated photo shows President Prabowo Subianto having a phone call with his American counterpart Donald Trump. Prabowo uploads the photo on his Instagram account on July 16, 2025, not long after Trump announces a 19 percent tariff deal with Indonesia. (@prabowo/Instagram)



Jakarta. A brief but impactful phone call between President Prabowo Subianto and US President Donald Trump has brought good news for Indonesian exporters. The two leaders spoke for nearly 17 minutes on Tuesday, resulting in the United States cutting its import tariffs on Indonesian products from 32 percent down to 19 percent.


According to an official statement from Indonesia’s Cabinet Secretariat, the conversation took place while Prabowo was still in Paris. It marked their second phone call in just a month.


“It was a serious conversation, but at the same time warm and friendly,” the statement noted, adding that trade tariffs were a key focus of their chat.


The phone call wasn’t just about lower tariffs. Indonesia also agreed to open its doors to US products without import duties, as part of a broader trade deal. On top of that, Indonesia committed to buying $15 billion worth of US energy products and $4.5 billion in agricultural goods.

And there’s more: Indonesia’s national airline, Garuda Indonesia, will be purchasing 50 Boeing jets, although the value of that deal hasn’t been disclosed yet.


The agreement wraps up weeks of intense back-and-forth between senior officials from both countries. Indonesia’s team was led by Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto, following the White House’s announcement back in April about raising tariffs on nearly every country in the world -- a move Trump called “liberation day.”

With this latest deal, the United States now imposes one of the lowest trade tariffs on Indonesian products in Asia. It’s also another win for Indonesia, coming on the heels of its recent free trade agreement with the European Union, which guarantees zero-percent tariffs on around 80 percent of Indonesian exports.


 

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