Trump Announces Major Pakistan Trade Deal, Vows Joint Oil Development/Exploration

[Starlord]

Fun fact India also announced finding of one the largest oil reserves in their Indoman & Nicobar region which would place them among the list of top 10 oil reserves country.

Oil hi oil hai har jaga bhai

 

[Rationale]

A diversion to "economics" instead of your own post about sovereignty:

1, What's the source of your information about Pakistan's oil reserves and the quality of the oil ( wax content of the crude, for example or "mud loss " during drilling.? Is it your ONGC "experts" ?

2. How do Pakistan's "unknown" oil reserves compare with India's known oil reserves with the brilliant job done by ONGC over the decades resulting in 83% of imports of oil and gas by India ? I recall that in 1982 ONGC chairman Colonel S.P.Wahi predicted full energy independence of India within the decade.,

3. I confess I am ignorant of economics, which is why I would suggest you as an economist yourself, may wish to explain what President Trump ( no doubt advised by economists) meant when he described India as a "dead economy " . A fact confirmed by your leader of opposition in Parliament.

Many reputed oil industry organisations track global proven oil reserves . Pakistan has about 500 million barrels. India has about 4.5 billion barrels. Saudi Arabia has onshore oil just flowing out of the ground. Offshore oil is inherently more expensive to extract , both in terms of lifting costs and capital costs. If there were Saudi kind of reserves in either India or Pakistan or anywhere else in the world , they would have already have been developed. In my opinion, breakeven cost for both countries would roughly be similar.

Indian PSU people have always made overenthusiastic predictions . I don't take them seriously. They had also promised cheap thorium based nuclear energy and a LCA decades ago. ONGC is actually one on the better PSUs. There is nothing they can do to change the petroleum geology of India, but they have at least taken on some projects outside India to provide the country energy diversification.

Trump is known to make outrageous statements. He could be singing a completely different tune tomorrow or even in a few hours if a deal gets agreed upon. India is the fastest growing economy in the world. I don't think any serious economist would call it a dead economy. Rahul Gandhi is not an economist either. Even if he were, he has every incentive to show Modi in a negative light, so one can hardly take his opinion on the matter seriously. In my opinion, Trump is just frustrated that some countries like Russia, China, India and Brazil are not giving him what he wants , especially when so many others are sucking up and have surrendered their interests. So, it is not surprising he is using such language. He does pretty much the same for Democrats and even Republicans who disagree with his agenda.

 

[mythbuster]

One important thing that Pakistanis needs to understand is that worldwide average success rate for offshore drilling is 15%...... that means only 1 in 6 efforts will yield results...... don't go ape shit if few drillings yield no good results .

 

[Reichmarshal]

the Achilles heel of countries like india and Pakistan, which have spent time under the colonial masters aka the british empire is that they still have an inferiority complex vis-à-vis the english speaking world (now somewhat diminished with the death of the colonial generation) and look up to them. The brits passed on their leadership baton to the americans after the 2nd ww. But the "eng" dominance remains.
So our elite, the people that matter, idea of success is retiring somewhere in eng, u.s, canada or aus post retirement. They have stashed their ill-gotten wealth their n these countries not only provide protection but turn a blind eye.

The crux of the above is, good relations with the English-speaking world since independence have been at the forefront of india/Pakistan foreign policy.

Now trump knows this weakness of the bindians and knows fully well that whatever india may say regarding russia or china. Its eco, foreign policy, and the elite are so intertwined with the west that they simply cant do without and will bend over backwards to be in trumps good books.

 

[mythbuster]

Many reputed oil industry organisations track global proven oil reserves . Pakistan has about 500 million barrels. India has about 4.5 billion barrels. Saudi Arabia has onshore oil just flowing out of the ground. Offshore oil is inherently more expensive to extract , both in terms of lifting costs and capital costs. If there were Saudi kind of reserves in either India or Pakistan or anywhere else in the world , they would have already have been developed. In my opinion, breakeven cost for both countries would roughly be similar.

Indian PSU people have always made overenthusiastic predictions . I don't take them seriously. They had also promised cheap thorium based nuclear energy and a LCA decades ago. ONGC is actually one on the better PSUs. There is nothing they can do to change the petroleum geology of India, but they have at least taken on some projects outside India to provide the country energy diversification.

Trump is known to make outrageous statements. He could be singing a completely different tune tomorrow or even in a few hours if a deal gets agreed upon. India is the fastest growing economy in the world. I don't think any serious economist would call it a dead economy. Rahul Gandhi is not an economist either. Even if he were, he has every incentive to show Modi in a negative light, so one can hardly take his opinion on the matter seriously. In my opinion, Trump is just frustrated that some countries like Russia, China, India and Brazil are not giving him what he wants , especially when so many others are sucking up and have surrendered their interests. So, it is not surprising he is using such language. He does pretty much the same for Democrats and even Republicans who disagree with his agenda.

Joy ride for India is over ....in next couple of years India is going back to her steady Hindu growth rate .... mentally prepare yourself for that and don't let suicidal thoughts take hold in your head .

 

[Oscar]

Only 6 countries are capable of doing such a massive and complex project and the US is the best in the world.

Most likely Exxon Mobile will lead this project.

I think you guys don’t understand the complexities involved so you ask these kinds of questions.

From a pure Oil and Gas perspective BP has lead as well. But considering the entire history of “major discoveries” in Pakistan you cannot blame people for being skeptical.

 

[Meengla]

All that is fine, but what are the specifics of the deal ? So far, the US has not even confirmed that anything other than a framework for oil exploration has been agreed upon ( even who will carry it out has not been decided and it is unclear if anyone will think it is worthwhile since Exxonmobil has already failed once).

And even proven oil reserves are not always economically viable. Look at Venezuela and the heavy oil in the Arctic.

Please re-read my quoted post. Also, as I said above in another post, I don't place much faith in 'oil' being discovered. It is good enough for Pakistan to have an American admin re-engaging with Pakistan after the negatively started under Obama's first term's late period (2011 onward).

 

[Rationale]

From a pure Oil and Gas perspective BP has lead as well. But considering the entire history of “major discoveries” in Pakistan you cannot blame people for being skeptical.

Why will Trump pick a British company ? Exxon has already failed. The likely remaining candidates are Chevron and Conoco Phillips IF they are intersted. Or if the whole deal is just a get-rich scheme for American and Pakistani elites, it could be some shell company that will just loot the Pakistani awaam.

 

[Blueishere]

"Who knows, maybe they (Pakistan) will be selling Oil to India some day!", says Trump​

​

​

In yet another major diplomatic win for Pakistan, US President Donald Trump has confirmed the finalisation of a trade agreement between the two countries, a move that signals growing trust and deepening economic ties between Islamabad and Washington.

The announcement comes as India, still scrambling to finalise a trade deal with Washington, finds itself under growing pressure, staring down hefty 25% tariffs and the risk of penalties over its continued energy ties with Russia.

"We have just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves. We are in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this Partnership. Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India some day!," the US president wrote in a Truth Social post.


resident Donald Trump said on Wednesday the United States is still negotiating with India on trade after announcing earlier in the day the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the country starting on Friday.

The 25% tariff, as well as an unspecified penalty announced by Trump in a morning social media post, would strain relations with the world's most populous democracy.

Later at the White House, the Republican president indicated there was wiggle room.

"They have one of the highest tariffs in the world now, they're willing to cut it very substantially," Trump told reporters. "We're talking to India now - we'll see what happens ... You'll know by the end of this week."

The 25% figure would single out India more severely than other major trading partners, and threaten to unravel months of talks between the two countries, undermining a strategic partner of Washington’s and a counterbalance to China.

What the penalty would be was not clear. Trump initially indicated it was for India buying Russian arms and oil, and its non-monetary trade barriers.
This is a developing story and is being updated with more details.

If this happens, I hope the funds are allocated toward education, social safety nets, and infrastructure to future-proof Pakistan’s growth, we don't want to end up like the Arabs.

 

[Rationale]

Please re-read my quoted post. Also, as I said above in another post, I don't place much faith in 'oil' being discovered. It is good enough for Pakistan to have an American admin re-engaging with Pakistan after the negatively started under Obama's first term's late period (2011 onward).

Fair enough, but that was just a natural consequence of OBL being discovered right next to Pakistani army establishments and the Country of Pakistan playing a double game that cost American lives.

And Trump is notoriously unreliable . It is quite possible and likely that he is just using Pakistan as a pawn to crack open access to the Indian market. I am not sure what good that kind of engagement would do for the Country of Pakistan. Even if there is genuine engagement, it won't be without Trump exacting his pound of flesh. Just look at how he has treated America's closest allies or even Republicans who helped him get elected.

 

[Blueishere]

This explains why India crossed the IB in desperation to make an international scene and affect US-Pak warming of relations. The minerals conference was the final straw for them.

Once extraction begins in oil and minerals and US real estate developers start building quality city centre skylines and we see it all taking shape, they are going to have daily melt downs.

Ah yes, DHA Trump. That is what Pakistan needs.

 

[PakFactor]

So which one are these Trump mentioned.

For the sake of Pakistan, I am hoping these are not the same, otherwise will cause a lot of shithosery.

But

Oil Wildcats to Watch for Signs of Asia Drilling Rebound

After a few fallow years, oil and gas drillers may be poised to unearth new reserves in the Asia-Pacific, according to energy consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd.

www.bloomberg.com

View attachment 138212


That location matches kekra 1. And that is the one PMIK was supposed to announce.

"A 2019 offshore drilling attempt at Kekra-1 by ExxonMobil and others, hyped as a major find, yielded no reserves after $100 million in costs, highlighting the risks of premature optimism."

Massive Oil and Gas Reserves Discovered in Pakistan’s Waters: A Potential Game-Changer

Pakistan has announced a significant discovery of oil and gas reserves in its territorial waters, potentially ranking among the world’s largest. The find,

khurshidgroup.com.pk

The past decade has seen Turkey and China invest in the exploration of onshore and offshore oil and gas reserves; many lead to nowhere, or those found make exploration cost prohibitive due to less-than-expected proven reserves.


I would advise not reading much into Trump's bombastic claims.

 

[Baibers_1260]

Many reputed oil industry organisations track global proven oil reserves . Pakistan has about 500 million barrels. India has about 4.5 billion barrels

Once again, what's the source of your information?

For your education:
(Note we are not focusing on oil but oil AND gas,)
We are differentiating between:

1. Proven recoverable and to be developed for extraction and refining
2. Under assessment for technical risk
3. Under exploration to discover viability in categories 2, & 1 above

That is what the Oil exploration and development agreement with the USA is all about. Actually a delegations of business executives have already visited Pakistan earlier this year. The
If there was no commercial value these executives would not be spending time and money visiting a "failed state for business deals.
Your semantics about performance of your PSU is of least relevance to the topic of this thread. If you give a break up of your oil reserves ( proven recoverable, under assessment, to be explored) and how your ONGC reports these in its annual reports might be of comparable relevance.

Some basic information for reference:
------------------------------------
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA),
Pakistan has an estimated 9 billion barrels of petroleum oil and 105 trillion cubic feet in shale oil and natural gas reserves, much of which remains undeveloped. However, experts caution that these are "risked, technically recoverable resources" and not proven reserves, with limited field information and high geological and infrastructural uncertainties.
In 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated the mean undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas resources in the Lower Indus Basin, Pakistan, to be around 164 million barrels of oil and 24.6 trillion cubic feet of gas.
In late 2024, a three-year exploration survey revealed potentially vast offshore oil and gas reserves within Pakistan's territorial waters. Early reports suggest that these reserves could potentially rank as the fourth largest globally. However, their commercial viability is still under assessment, pending further analysis and exploration. Some estimates suggest that the reserves could be brought to market in four to five years, requiring an initial investment of $5 billion for exploration and extraction efforts.
Pakistan's proven recoverable conventional crude oil reserves are estimated to be between 234 million and 353 million barrels.

Pakistan Endorses New Oil Exploration | Breakbulk

Discover Industry News from Breakbulk shippers, exhibitors, sponsors & event speakers - categorised to help you find what's most important to your business

breakbulk.com

 

[Sparten]

But the technology to extract It has existed for decades? What is the trigger for it now?
Heck ive heard about these massive coastal reserves before as well.

I don’t know what this repackaging is unless it’s something truly new and so now the United States is truly interested.

P.s - don’t forget this means ikhwan are going to start making efforts to sabotage this as well

Covid and Russia-Ukraine. Its made companies and countries look again at oil deposits, even those which were deemed uneconomical, to hedge bets. Expensive and available beats cheap and unusable ,

 

[Meengla]

Fair enough, but that was just a natural consequence of OBL being discovered right next to Pakistani army establishments and the Country of Pakistan playing a double game that cost American lives.

And Trump is notoriously unreliable . It is quite possible and likely that he is just using Pakistan as a pawn to crack open access to the Indian market. I am not sure what good that kind of engagement would do for the Country of Pakistan. Even if there is genuine engagement, it won't be without Trump exacting his pound of flesh. Just look at how he has treated America's closest allies or even Republicans who helped him get elected.

OBL was eventually nabbed because of Pakistan's help, and that was publicly announced by Obama himself. It is not hard to hide behind tall walls in a very conservative society like Pakistan's. What has the distance from the army facility got to do with it? There are literally hundreds, if not thousands of residences in big small house within just 1-2 miles of radius. Ask the locals there--nobody thought anything too unusual there. Even Rumsfeld, defending Pakistan, said that highly unlikely someone from the inside knew because of if one knew, then another would know, then another. He also said that Americans don't exactly know who comes and leaves around the Pentagon itself. You can look up that video yourself!!
He was logical but Indians are constantly trying to bring up the OBL Raid and also the 1971 war against Pakistan. Is that all the ammo you are left with?? If Americans really thought Pakistan was helping Al Qaida then they would have been very harsh on Pakistan. But they knew that AQ had declared war on the state of Pakistan and was killing Pakistanis.
You Indians need to grow up and smell the coffee: The world has moved on from 9/11 while you peddle 'terrorism' conspiracy theories. Maybe that's all you are left with.
But I do agree that Pakistanis were helping the Afghan Taliban. Everyone knew that and knows that.