Opinion: India Pakistan near conflict - Escalation management non-existent

[Baibers_1260]

Modi likes/wants to be perceived as a "strong leader" to his nation, we often paint him as an irrational actor, except if we see through the lens of politics, his moves make sense for he has now successfully cultivated a nation of far right extremists. His actions went from "surgical strikes" to threats of missile strikes to actual missile strikes in a span of 10 odd years. If anyone thinks he's going to roll back, especially after a couple episodes of getting a through arse whooping, Yeah -- that aint happening.

It's not just Modi as a person but the collective hysteria of the organizations, religious and political outfits that in fact control Modi and the government. It doesn't matter if Modi stays in power or is asked to "retire ", the security threat to Pakistan will not change and in fact likely to get far worse.
A brief look at the organizations that control Modi, the government, foreign policy, and most importantly the civil AND military establishments . Ideologically the Indian Arned Forces one neutral and secular are equally committed to the ideology of these extra-legislative entities .

- Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh ( RSS) - National Volunteer Service Organization
- Vishwa Hindu Parishad ( VHP) - Global Hindu Association
- Bajrang Dal ( The word Bajrang comes from Lord Bajrang Bali the deity symbolizing martial prowess)
-Abhinay Bharat

All the above are in an umbrella body called the Marg Darshak Samiti or Path Directional Committee

So with the recent revelation by Indian Chief of Defence Staff Lt.General Anil Chauhan that the Indian Armed Forces must conform to the political ideology ( Hindutva) and act accordingly pretty much seals the fate of the sub-continent.

The India Pakistan conflict has transcended beyond individuals and so called "core issues ". It is a conflict now driven by religion and ideology so any analysis based solely on logic and data is insufficient.

 

[Oscar]

How authentic are we looking at it coming from the source?
The actual ideals are fairly authentic and match assessments of many but it is the timeline of it which matters.

 

[marj786]

I don't think they can mobilize their troops before us

 

[Rational Philosopher]

How authentic are we looking at it coming from the source?
The actual ideals are fairly authentic and match assessments of many but it is the timeline of it which matters.

I marked it unconfirmed for this reason because it's authenticity cannot be confirmed. Although the quality of the document and style of writing gives it some legitimacy and contents align with Indian politico-thought.

Hence I posted it

 

[Oscar]

I don't think they can mobilize their troops before us

They can and have been practicing that for a while. But the issue isnt purely mobilization but being able to put those mobilization efforts into actual gains in current weather conditions with heat and other aspects especially in the south.

 

[Oscar]

I marked it unconfirmed for this reason because it's authenticity cannot be confirmed. Although the quality of the document and style of writing gives it some legitimacy and contents align with Indian politico-thought.

Hence I posted it

You can align any content with any writing style today with Gen AI.

 

[Corax]

In the standoff in early 2000s, the indians deployed troops along the border and managed to kill almost 1,000 personnel, through accidents, heat exhaustion, and setting off their own mines.

 

[Toxic]

Any somewhat large scale preparation for an invasion would be noticed almost immediately, concepts like cold start are outdated unless they are willing to accept brutal losses from both combat and environmental conditions.

 

[FarhanSiddiqui]

Experts are saying that this document is not regular CIA reporting style.

 

[NA71]

LoC par kiya chal raha hy? Multiple sources.

 

[Metal 0-1]

"with the leaker demanding $3,000 for the remaining 12 pages"

seems like a cash grab to me

 

[Metal 0-1]

Experts are saying that this document is not regular CIA reporting style.

Cuz its not. Syntax is way off

 

[mythbuster]

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CIA disagrees here, they have been testing new missiles non stop, something will happen, it's just a matter of time

Keith is a reliable source for CIA to leak the so called top confidential reports.. ..it could be that the report has some other motive that we are not aware of.....in the intelligence world there are wheels within wheels .

 

[Starlord]

How authentic are we looking at it coming from the source?
The actual ideals are fairly authentic and match assessments of many but it is the timeline of it which matters.

Lots of chatter of another round of fighting soon, not saying if the document is real or not but the concerns sighted in the doc does hold some bits of reality, now given IAF couldn't even hold themselves against PAF let alone a complete Air Superiority over Pakistani skies any land incursion will be a slaughter of Indian forces, they can push in using their larger numbers but can not hold territory inside Pakistan for long as they will be bombed and harassed on every turn, in worse case Scenario the whole invasion of AJK can turned into a guerilla warfare which in the mountainous terrain of Kashmir is a death trap for any Army.

 

[Baibers_1260]

I don't think they can mobilize their troops before us

They can, There is a strike corps in Jaipur Udaipur waiting to strike along the Multan axis, provided of course first our Air Force and Nasr missile units can be knocked out by a mass Brahmos attack.
With no air force or surface-to-surface missiles to stop them a thrust would take the Indian strike corps fairly deep.
Pakistan immediately needs 5000 Javelins or equivalent ATGMs to take out the T-90 Bheeshma tanks if they do break through. These would be easy meat in the desert with camouflaged highly mobile ATGM crews getting a clear line of fire.
The Ukrainians have shown how even without air power T-90s can be stopped using just ATGMs .