USA Rethinking the India-Pakistan Dynamic.

[RajaBaja]

The United States has a lot of leverage over Pakistan right now. If the Pakistan Democracy Act passes, the US Congress and gets signed into law, the current regime in Pakistan will collapse. The Trump administration and the regime both know that the US has them by the balls and the hybrid regime serves at Trump's pleasure. So, the US will extract maximum advantage and use Pakistan to do its "dirty work " - to borrow a phrase from Pakistan's defence minister.

You are out of reality again. They've seen India's weak posture and global influence. Pakistan on the other hand, enjoys un-parallel influence on China, Iran, Middle East and Africa. All nations where US and it's allies can use mediation in the future on various conflicts.

The US has a huge economic interest in Pakistan, from oil, gas to Rare Earths! And then exclusive rights to Crypto industry. With Pakistan's estimated growth to top 15 economies over time, it's 5th largest populated nation. They will earn billions in profit overtime. This time, it's about American interests, not so much so Pakistan.

I think the recent conflict showed that India got dominated in very key aspects of the conflict - Airpower. This means that India is not even capable of handling a much smaller adversary, let alone a near super power like China. So then what is the point of propping up its military capabilities when all they can or want to do is get into fights with Pakistan and not achieve any victory (even a draw is a win for Pakistan).

India will still hold good economic power and relations, as it has a massive market and Industry to trade with - but why keep Pakistan weak specifically to appease Indian security interests, when they cannot or do not want to address western security interests vs China and Russia. From transactional point of view, if India cannot even give up cheaper Russian oil when they are invading Ukraine, why cannot west/USA sell weapons to Pakistan for reasonable security interests?

While we praise India's super large population, we must keep some facts understood:

- Indian market is not what India shows to the world. That it has 1.4 billion consumers. Gone are the days when Western businessmen used to hear this magic number above a billion and would go "wow, I can make so much money". Near 400 million live under poverty, that leaves nearly a billion, minus youth and stay home people, that's another 300 million gone and from the 700 million left, there is half the number near or below lower middle class. Eventually, per some studies I've read, you get roughly 250 million (near quarter billion) consumers who can buy and afford some luxury. Near 100 million can afford more purchasing than the rest of the population.

- Pakistan's upcoming market: Pakistan is the 5th largest populated nation and a big market also. Compared to India we have much less population and area but it also means we will need much less money to develop this population and area and give our people a good standard of living. Which means our middle class will have more room to grow and will be stronger than the Indian side. By 2028, like I've been stating for a while, re-balancing of the GDP will show a strong middle class starting to emerge. If we have a 120 million consumer population that will have decent purchasing power in the future, it's a lot more than many European nation's entire population. So our GDP should naturally climb towards 1 trillion. So never underestimate what Pakistan has to offer.

US is seeing exactly this. US think tanks chart out next 25 years when creating strategies. They want to become a key trade partner now when things are starting and enjoy the ride up.

 

[Rationale]

The US has a huge economic interest in Pakistan, from oil, gas to Rare Earths! And then exclusive rights to Crypto industry. With Pakistan's estimated growth to top 15 economies over time, it's 5th largest populated nation. They will earn billions in profit overtime. This time, it's about Ame

Use some common sense . If Pakistan has viable oil, gas and rare earths reserves, why hasn't your iron brother China gotten involved in extracting them yet ?

What exactly does the crypto industry in Pakistan consist of ? Does Pakistan have its own coins that can rival BTC ? What is about Pakistan that is so unique ? The only thing I can think of is that it is an extremely corrupt country where the government lacks democratic legitimacy so graft and corruption would be easier .

 

[nahtanbob]

I’ve been following Western and U.S. media, and apart from a single article offering a different angle, I find it hard to verify if what it says is actually true.

To me, the situation feels like a bubble. Trump’s unpredictability, and the fact that he acts more like a businessman than a political leader, has already caused damage to India–U.S. relations.

When that bubble eventually bursts—for example, if the war in Ukraine ends—I believe the U.S. will again try to improve ties with India. But since India has capable foreign policy makers, they won’t rush into it. The damage to trust has already been done. But again, both sides will work on it.

Sooner or later, the U.S. will try to win India back, and I don’t see they will going to change the long-term trajectory, and suddenly Pakistan will become important player for them.

As for Pakistan, its value to the U.S. is mainly strategic—location, Iran, Afghanistan, and to some extent China. Beyond that, I don’t see much depth in the relationship. Washington will maintain some level of engagement with Pakistan, because might in coming years, they need Pakistani airspace and military bases to operates against these countries, uSa will always keep nd wants that option open

In short, I don’t see any major policy changes happening right now

USA needs to have USD as primary reserve currency. They require all the major economic players to go along. that includes India.

 

[nahtanbob]

I was careful not to say state department official. I said official in the current administration. Those boomers with nostalgia for the 80s.

any official in the current administration is 67 years old now if they were 30 in 1988. Everyone in a position of power and authority in the 1980s are not alive.

The ones that are alive are not in active politics - let alone involved with Trump in any way.
James Baker is the closest one
Edwin Meese III, Attorney General

In fact most of the traditional GoP intelligence and military figures want nothing to do with Trump

 

[nahtanbob]

- Pakistan's upcoming market: Pakistan is the 5th largest populated nation and a big market also. Compared to India we have much less population and area but it also means we will need much less money to develop this population and area and give our people a good standard of living. Which means our middle class will have more room to grow and will be stronger than the Indian side. By 2028, like I've been stating for a while, re-balancing of the GDP will show a strong middle class starting to emerge. If we have a 120 million consumer population that will have decent purchasing power in the future, it's a lot more than many European nation's entire population. So our GDP should naturally climb towards 1 trillion. So never underestimate what Pakistan has to offer.

US is seeing exactly this. US think tanks chart out next 25 years when creating strategies. They want to become a key trade partner now when things are starting and enjoy the ride up.

Tell us the last time Pakistan went without an IMF loan

 

[r3alist]

How will China protect India from US tariffs ?

You are all openly declaring your common interest to take on tariffs with China and Russia.


I mean there is no pretense, India is hugely looking up to China

India is just normalising relations with China.

Yes, a few weeks ago the strategic enemy.

India doesn't have any strategic enemies.

Are they even on planet earth then?

 

[r3alist]

that it will respond to terrorists attacks by targetting perpetrators deep inside Pakistan had been achieved and Pakistan was asking for a ceasefire

Then you do not target conventional military and nuclear related facilities?

In any case, your air force morale is what was lost

 

[nahtanbob]

You are all openly declaring your common interest to take on tariffs with China and Russia.


I mean there is no pretense, India is hugely looking up to China

Looking up for what ? China is not buying Indian products. The numbers speak for themselves

 

[r3alist]

Looking up for what ? China is not buying Indian products. The numbers speak for themselves

Look at the size difference

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[nahtanbob]

Look at the size difference

It does not matter who Modi schmoozes with - China is not buying Indian products

 

[Rationale]

It does not matter who Modi schmoozes with - China is not buying Indian products

Well, it is mostly Indians who buy Indian products. India is not a big exporter, which is why they can absorb the US tariffs. The China outreach is not so much about finding a market , but more so about disengaging tensions on the border and opening up the flow of Chinese investments and technology again. For example, BYD had wanted to make a billon dollar investment in India, but it was rejected. That might be reconsidered.

 

[r3alist]

It does not matter who Modi schmoozes with - China is not buying Indian products

Is there anything to buy?

 

[r3alist]

and opening up the flow of Chinese investments and technology again.

I'm glad you specifically said technology.


Because you need China or USA for technology


For a number of years Indian contributors have staunchly denied this, now that this choice is upon them even I am surprised how easily they can transition to China, a former so called enemy

Furthermore, the entire world has understood that to psychologically control India it can be done through Pakistan, in case that needed confirmation

 

[Distant_Observer]

China should keep India interested while keeping them at arms length then bleed out their leverage with the US.

After LAC has been taken and hopefully if Pakistan steps up, LOC along with Khalistan being carved out, India will have new found humility and decency and without hinduvita extremist ideology, India will finally become more reasonable. The subcontinent will have everlasting peace and we can all finally develop our continent towards sustained prosperity and respect for all.

 

[Rationale]

Furthermore, the entire world has understood that to psychologically control India it can be done through Pakistan, in case that needed confirmation

Yeah, that is why the Chinese pulled out of financing the ML-1 rail project .