First, strings on sustainment—like maintenance, spare parts, technical assistance, and logistical support—are also there with USA, france along with strings on usage. what are the chances that USA and European suppliers wont imposed sustainment restrictions, often with stricter conditions? For instance, has the USA upgraded Pakistan’s F-16s mushkil say aik baar wo b war on terror main pakistan ka bairha ghark kar kay 18 block 52 diye. Even the Block 52 F-16s are becoming outdated now, especially when India is acquiring more Rafale jets, will USA upgrade them for us? karwa kay dekh lo.
Yes! this idea that the world is closed off to dealing with pak is a major misconception.
The F-16V door is always open, the question is, will you pay for it and also will you meet the requirements the US sets out in terms of protecting the tech onboard? They were available during Aman's tenure, available now too, just a matter of who will pay?
Europe is actually a pretty reliable supplier, i dont think we've had any major issues with Europe, especially considering all 3 forces use European vendors for their major strategic projects. The Pak Army has setup a MASSIVE custom electronic warfare network, it is a HUGE project worth billions- whos the prime contractor? A European firm.
The Pak Navy has very likely- i can say with near 100% certainty selected Fincantieri to build its SWATS. This means Fincantieri will also likely build PN's domestic Sub with them. They also had U212NFS on offer to PN, which i suspect we will see in the waters of Karachi in the coming decades. Heck, whatever sub PN chooses next, will carry German Fuel cells, while our current agostas rely almost exclusively on Atlas Elektronik for their sensor suite and weapons.
For the PAF, they're turning to Europe for SAM's now, not to mention the PAF's surv network is like so heavily US/German based, with now some Chinese to replace older units, but PAF deploys TRML and TPS series heavily, again, without too much concern.
The PAF had also seriously evaluated a Typhoon offer, there was a ton of proponents for it too, the issue was funding, i bet if FATF had'nt cucked us, we would have been operating Typhoons and Meteors instead of J-10's, also, in larger numbers since the UK had offered their Tranche 1's to us for free as part of the deal.
Second, China doesn’t impose usage restrictions, which is a significant advantage. Unlike USA, China hasn’t placed arms embargoes on Pakistan or pressured us to alter our strategic policies. Yes, China could potentially use sustainment as leverage in the future, but that’s a long-term concern.
What good is no usage restrictions when the aircraft cant be supported? Iran has no usage restrictions, but their fleet is rarely seeing the skies.
I also always find this usage restriction claim a bit funny like we did not scramble F-16s against US assets during OBL raid, or that we did not literally strike and shoot down Indians during SR. Infact, i always ask anyone who makes this claim, if there are restrictions on the use of F-16s against India, who are the 500 AMRAAMs for? The Taliban? Did the US make the largest export amraam agreement at the time for fun to sit on shelves?
If you are referring to a lack of A2G weaponry, then this is a fault of our own. The yanks are concerned about us turning F-16s into nuke slingers, which is a valid concern considering all the whispers and murmurs that came out. I remember the Americans starting to worry that we were modifying Harpoons into cruise missiles for deep strike/nuke delivery. Like, lets take accountability where its due.
In the meantime, Pakistan should focus on building indigenous capabilities, like the PFX program, to reduce dependency. By the time China might exert such pressure, we could have a fully indigenous platform or leverage Turkey’s 5th-generation fighter program for collaboration.
This is effectively impossible, we have no industrial base and import literally everything down to the last screw from China.
Third, let’s consider the alternatives. If we rule out China, what realistic options does Pakistan have? The USA won’t supply F-35s for at least the next 20 years, and even F-16 Block 70/72 upgrades are unlikely. If they do provide F-16 upgrades, they’ll likely restrict us to using only their legacy weapons (like the AIM-120D) and prohibit integration of our own systems.
Europe. The Typhoon.
But lets make the case here, again, do i fault the US for wanting to be careful with leakage of sensitive data? No. Pakistani opsec/cybersec is NONEXISTENT. Literally the J-10 contract got leaked. I have my hands on a leak from the Pak side exposing MBDA contractors in country, their passports, hotels, even heck, the details of their parents and the contracts too. Can we be trusted lol is the question. Some members on this forum with their experience in the industry had made it pretty clear, Pak/PAC/PAF is a data breach waiting to happen. I bet you there are SO many moles infesting the forces already its insane.
What do we have to integrate anyway- either REK or Raad. Raad is not even on the J-10, i doubt any exporter will want us to use their jets for nuke delivery. SOW/REK can be integrated with nothing from the OEM. The Turks, the Philippinos etc all use Pylon adapters controlled by iPads which release the weapons when needed. Happy days.
But also, what weapons have we integrated, im yet to see J-10s carry anything other than the PL combo. MAYBE pak pressured REK integration because we used to get shaken down on the FT series.
In contrast, China allows us to integrate our weapons, even on platforms like the J-10C. You might now argue that it is allowed only with JF-17 because it’s a joint project, but for J-10C it wont? we can clear this thing now before in the future china puts string on sustainment.
Answered above, we cant even integrate our own weapons into JF-17 without OEM support. We dont have the source codes etc. Infact, JamD has shared the story countless times here, where we tried to integrate a local payload and the mission computers locked up. We cant do anything without Chinese assistance or consent.
Also, China will phase out the J-10 in the coming years, meaning we could negotiate for its source code, assembly line, fly-by-wire systems, and other critical technologies now so we can save ourself in the future sustainment. This would enable us to upgrade and customize the platform independently in the future.
This is flawed. All we can do is assemble with some mild fabrication.
You say it yourself, we can negotiate for the ASSEMBLY line- so all of the inputs still need to come from China. All we can do is final assembly, its a different matter if you're telling me we will fabricate the TRM's and antennas ourselves, setup composite shops, bring engine manufacturing in house, use domestic steel, build every nut and bolt in house. But no, we wont. In the best case scenario, lets pretend China said yeah here u go heres the assembly line...we're still having to call up mr Xi asking him to send us a shipment of screws because someone misplaced them. We're wholly dependant and that creates avenues for exploitation, but beyond this, we just cannot do anything ourselves. Future sustainment will be such a HUGE headache once China starts dwindling down on J-10 use, remember, for us a J-10 buy is long term, for them, its their lowest tier fighter, that will probably be the first to go when it does, meaning we will become reliant on cannibalised airframes to sustain, like India is with Mirages, or how we were with our own. Nobody likes buying aircraft the designing country doesn't use, it creates a sense of security. The PAF always picked the same cfg's as the USAF for its F-16s. The UAEAF refused to buy F-16XL's and killed off the program unless the US committed into buying a set number too.
Finally, if we don’t procure from China, what’s left? The USA is unreliable—its priorities align with Israel, and even NATO allies like Turkey have been denied F-35s, not just because of the S-400 deal but because the US uses such excuses to limit technology transfers to non-preferred allies. Even Qatar example is in front of our eyes. Also as you said that Pakistan can’t produce even basic components like nuts and bolts domestically, then dismissing China leaves us with no viable options. We can’t trust the USA for consistent procurement, so China remains our most practical partner for now.
What other options do you see for Pakistan’s defense procurement, given these realities?
Europe Europe Europe.
Industrially, Europe is stuck. They can produce amazing kit and all, but they find themselves not being able to buy enough due to their smaller forces. Guys like us are goldmines, we will buy tons, bring them jobs and keep their industry alive, its in their strategic interests. The UK was desperate for someone to buy Typhoons from them.
your answer is all on speculations like china aesa kar dega china wo kar dega etc but jis nay kayi dafa kar diya hai usa wahan ap jaana chahtay? i dont understand? you advocate for diversity? okay what other options do we have? leave out usa.. we had many time very bad experience with them. tell us options othen than USA and china?
Its simple, our wars will NEVER last more than 2-3 weeks, if the US sees Pak getting steamrolled, its not going to let that happen, we have seen the way the US operates with Ukraine, it is not in Americas interest to let Pak fall, which is why it has not let that happen.
My suggestions are simple, diversify, keep the US fleet there, JF-17 fleet there, and look to Europe, especially via the EFT, considering the countries are planning on using it to 2060 and it has like 2-3 upgrade progs in dev already. J-10s have happened now, and it is what it is.
The alternative, Arslan01, is that we buy Western as you keep insisting and get sanctioned every time we're in a conflict with India. Or, if the Israelis should come for us... as they keep threatening, have our Western weapons easily jammed as just happened in Qatar.
There's never any technology transfer from the US... ever. The US has, at all times, acted to restrict Pakistani power and capabilities. Also, it has never... ever, invested in our economy or infrastructure, even when we were "the most allied ally". At that time, of "most allied ally" we were still denied access to the US textile sector. Meanwhile, South Korea and Taiwan were granted access to the US economy which led their development. Fact is Pakistan, because it's a Muslim country, will never be accepted as an ally and its capabilities, economic and military will always be curtailed, contained and restricted.
Published 1956- Pakistan, an Ally with Liabilities.
Our position on the global stage was our own fault.
Fundamentally is this not the fault of the PAF for : a) for signing such a restrictive contract in the first place by not fully understanding the contract ? b) for not leveraging government to government contacts at the leadership level to resolve this errant behaviour ?
Its all shifting dynamics, from what i understood, it is only now we have managed to get a backbone. I had made a joke that it is always better to keep a nashai hooked by dripfeeding your stock to him, to which i was told "yes, but now the nashai knows how to deal with it properly"...and now we see a JF-17 where PAF is trying to move away from China and more toward the Turks...
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