View attachment 146728Khamylch wrote:
Of course not. He cannot cope with Ukraine. It is in Russia's interests to force NATO to spend disproportionately on countering threats (such as deploying air defence systems where cheap drones may or may not fly), but a ‘hot war’ in which the enemy will strike back is a nightmare for the Russians. The only thing that might make a big war interesting is if China gets involved on Russia's side. But I'm not really sure that China needs some formal excuse. If it wanted to fight, it would probably have already intervened.
At present, there are obvious efforts to undermine NATO so that its member countries stop participating in those parodies of preparatory measures to repel the as yet unlikely aggression against the Baltic states or another country in the bloc.
For Russia, the main thing in case of an incident is to ensure that the conflict does not escalate to nuclear war and is limited in terms of the forces involved. Then, having essentially taken part of a country hostage, it can begin to demand NATO's surrender or some kind of political concessions. If the bloc countries are demoralised in advance, there will be no one to invoke Article 5. The US will not fight either on behalf of or alongside the Europeans. And the Europeans cannot fight without the US, primarily because without the US they do not have sufficient forces and resources, especially given that part of Europe will not fight against Russia on principle.
https://t.me/orange_east/72313?single
waronline.org
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