PAF J-10CE News, Updates and Discussion

[SABRE]

I'm not opposed to China providing Pakistan with the J-10CE ToT. My analysis is that the J-10CE assembly line and technology alone pose no threat to China's strategic security. In other words, China's State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (SASTIND) will not block the deal.

For CATIC, if it sells the J-10CE to the PAF as a whole, the PAF's purchase quantity will be limited. However, if it sells J-10CE components to PAC, with PAC independently producing some fuselage parts and final fighter assembly, the PAF's purchase quantity could at least double or triple. This would not affect CATIC's economic benefits and could even generate higher profits.

So, I wouldn't be surprised if that day ever comes.

However, China is unlikely to transfer the technology for core components (engines, radar, avionics, etc.), much less open the fighter's core source code. At most, China will allow it to be compatible with weapons payloads developed jointly by China and Pakistan or independently by Pakistan, but not with third-party payloads(Including weapons payloads from Pakistan and Türkiye).

For Pakistan, this is a deal destined to lose money. Given Pakistan's economic strength and production capacity, the final cost cannot be lower than CATIC's quotation. So, how will the costs of the production line and technology transfer be handled? CATIC cannot afford a second soft loan of more than a decade.

The original purpose of the FC-31/J-35 was to serve the international market. It has no necessary connection to China-Pakistan relations.
Based on official information, we can confirm that the FC-31/J-35 export version is a downgraded version of the J-35A Self-use version. It has been declassified.

As for the others, we can discuss them when they arrive in Pakistan. For now, everything is speculation.

We do not wish to interfere in the close relationship between Pakistan and Turkey. This is Pakistan's internal affairs.

However, Turkey's pan-Turkism poses a profound threat to China's national security. In recent years, Sino-Turkish relations have improved somewhat. However, the fundamental issues between us have not been resolved; they have merely been temporarily shelved. They could flare up again at any time. Based on the most basic national security strategy, we can engage in appropriate economic trade with Turkey. However, on the military level, especially in military technology, there is no basis for trust between the two sides.
There is also the US's military influence on Pakistan.

For ordinary Chinese, we are not opposed to our government providing Pakistan with cutting-edge military technology. Our real concern is Pakistan's inability to keep these technologies secret. This is due to both active and passive factors. Numerous countries hostile to China can easily infiltrate Pakistan's major confidential facilities. The widespread corruption in Pakistan is also an important channel for leaks.

I might be proven wrong, but I don't see any viable reason(s) for Pakistan to get J-10C's ToT. There is no indication of PAF planning on acquiring 90-100+ aircraft &/or CAC production line being busy to the point where it cannot guarantee delivery of these numbers in time, both of which would make sense for getting the ToT. Otherwise it might turn out to be the same dead rubber as Agosta-90B ToT from France. It was speculated that PAF would induct 36 J-10C but the plan seems to be have been slowed down, if not put on hold completely. This may have something to do with J-35 (or not). We'll have to wait and see.

I disagree with the last paragraph. Americans had similar fears with F-16s but Pakistan never provided China access to these aircraft, even when Pakistan was under embargo. China being more important ally, security partner, and more reliable arms supplier, I doubt Pakistan would mishandle Chinese tech. But this is easy for me to say sitting across the border. From Chinese perspective they would be right to be cautious.

 

[RajaBaja]

To sum it up in one sentence: "You have no money!"

Agreed. But what If money wasn't a factor.......

 

[Michael]

I might be proven wrong, but I don't see any viable reason(s) for Pakistan to get J-10C's ToT. There is no indication of PAF planning on acquiring 90-100+ aircraft &/or CAC production line being busy to the point where it cannot guarantee delivery of these numbers in time, both of which would make sense for getting the ToT. Otherwise it might turn out to be the same dead rubber as Agosta-90B ToT from France. It was speculated that PAF would induct 36 J-10C but the plan seems to be have been slowed down, if not put on hold completely. This may have something to do with J-35 (or not). We'll have to wait and see.

Many Pakistani friends here are eager to obtain the J-10CE ToT from China.
I am simply helping them analyze this matter.

I disagree with the last paragraph. Americans had similar fears with F-16s but Pakistan never provided China access to these aircraft, even when Pakistan was under embargo. China being more important ally, security partner, and more reliable arms supplier, I doubt Pakistan would mishandle Chinese tech. But this is easy for me to say sitting across the border. From Chinese perspective they would be right to be cautious.

The Chinese have their own way of analyzing issues. Pakistanis can express their views on issues between China and Pakistan, and so can the Chinese.
Due to significant cultural differences, we disagree on many issues. Therefore, we need to express our respective perspectives and then find common ground.
I can only tell you that ordinary Chinese people are concerned about these issues.

Agreed. But what If money wasn't a factor.......

Technically, it's not difficult at all. It's a very, very simple thing.
Economically, Pakistan can't afford it.

The economic disparity is enormous. It's like someone who eats their first meal every day and doesn't know where their second will come from, but their mind is constantly yearning for a Rolls-Royce.

 

[RajaBaja]

Many Pakistani friends here are eager to obtain the J-10CE ToT from China.
I am simply helping them analyze this matter.

The Chinese have their own way of analyzing issues. Pakistanis can express their views on issues between China and Pakistan, and so can the Chinese.
Due to significant cultural differences, we disagree on many issues. Therefore, we need to express our respective perspectives and then find common ground.
I can only tell you that ordinary Chinese people are concerned about these issues.

Technically, it's not difficult at all. It's a very, very simple thing.
Economically, Pakistan can't afford it.

The economic disparity is enormous. It's like someone who eats their first meal every day and doesn't know where their second will come from, but their mind is constantly yearning for a Rolls-Royce.

you went too far bro, just like yesterday, when you told us Pakistan will be self destructed if it acquired certain weapons from China. When we are a nuke state and have been for 27 years managing those complex weapons.

So I'll close this discussion. As I know, we want a 5th gen single engine jet out of the PFX. So let's see how we achieve it even with your analogy of us not having a "second meal's capacity"

 

[Michael]

you went too far bro, just like yesterday, when you told us Pakistan will be self destructed if it acquired certain weapons from China. When we are a nuke state and have been for 27 years managing those complex weapons.

So I'll close this discussion. As I know, we want a 5th gen single engine jet out of the PFX. So let's see how we achieve it even with your analogy of us not having a "second meal's capacity"

I have no intention of criticizing anything, nor do I intend to change your habit of self-entertainment.

On the one hand, the PAF's purchase of 20 J-10CEs requires a soft loan from CATIC for over 10 years. Remember, the J-10CE is the cheapest fighter currently in production in China. It is the weakest fighter in the PLAAF's active combat sequence. And the PLAAF's lowest-level combat unit, an aviation brigade, has a minimum configuration of 24 fighters.

On the other hand, our Pakistani friends here constantly propose various new and advanced weapons programs; demand cutting-edge technology; and want to mass-produce them themselves.

So, you continue to fantasize.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Many Pakistani friends here are eager to obtain the J-10CE ToT from China.

Lol. No. There is maybe 1 person, or 2 at most who want a J10CE on ToT terms.

The result of us think we should buy off the shelf, and invest that money in moving JF17 manufacturing from 60% to a higher value, and at 100% for the airframe asap.

 

[Michael]

The result of us think we should buy off the shelf, and invest that money in moving JF17 manufacturing from 60% to a higher value, and at 100% for the airframe asap.

This is the right path.

 

[kimjongun]

IDK why but some Pakistanis here tend to think that we can get access to china's top tier tech with full TOT at cheap prices like???we need a large industrial base for producing fighters even like the jf17 b3 and this is if CAC pulls their support..we need large investments and develpments in our home grown metallurgy industry including mills,fabricators,tooling etc...which will come at a big price also do we need the j10c in that big of a number to make a fully production line...mind you that the line while similar to jf17 is gonna cost money too...also the weapons that would be integrated ,the ew suites and what not....it took china years to develop the industries on which it stands on...Our major problem is money and money....the more money you give to china the better tech you will get(most probable scenario)...also the idea of a seperate fifth jen fighter liek a single engine j20 is dumb tbh..china is fast moving towards 6th jen and currently has two operational fifth jen fighters and one of which is in large numbers...our best best is to get j35 from china(most probably on loan)in the next 10 years cuz india aint getting one before 2035 atleast..so up until the j35 comes we will fill the gaps with j10c..

 

[RajaBaja]

I have no intention of criticizing anything, nor do I intend to change your habit of self-entertainment.

On the one hand, the PAF's purchase of 20 J-10CEs requires a soft loan from CATIC for over 10 years. Remember, the J-10CE is the cheapest fighter currently in production in China. It is the weakest fighter in the PLAAF's active combat sequence. And the PLAAF's lowest-level combat unit, an aviation brigade, has a minimum configuration of 24 fighters.

On the other hand, our Pakistani friends here constantly propose various new and advanced weapons programs; demand cutting-edge technology; and want to mass-produce them themselves.

So, you continue to fantasize.

There is no "fantasizing". Not everyone here is a fanboy. I was at Zhuhai last year also. Write down today's time and date and my message.

The PFX will have a 5th gen stealth component to it. Period. Let's wait and find out when things come out on media at some point in future.

And yes, I am aware of the loan on J-10C. The installment breakdown is put below. This order was placed when we were about bankrupt in 2020. It was Chinese government's kindness they understood the urgency. Our economy is not that of 2020 and as we move forward, there are significant changes coming to our GDP.

 

[Ak01]

Technically, it's not difficult at all. It's a very, very simple thing.

@JamD for shits and gigs if you're bored- redesigning a J-20 to be a single engine fighter is allegedly a "very simple thing- nobody on this forum has your level of expertise, how do you feel about this lol

 

[RajaBaja]

@JamD Before we jump back onto @Michael and pressure him more. He was being sarcastic when he said single engine J-20 is very very simple".

We all know redesigning any airframe is possible but it takes proper design and testing effort. But since a larger design is already done and in production, you do save lots of time as you've been through material, aerodynamics, engines, weapons and testing of various other parameters. Avionics and sensors can also be reused with adjusted power capacity for single engine vs. dual.

Lol. No. There is maybe 1 person, or 2 at most who want a J10CE on ToT terms.

The result of us think we should buy off the shelf, and invest that money in moving JF17 manufacturing from 60% to a higher value, and at 100% for the airframe asap.

Not many want J-10C TOT and continue with JF-17 next block. Whether we call PFX block 4 of JF-17 or a next version say JF-18, under PFX, it will need to have 5th gen features. I think that has been laid out solid. Near future will give us more details as they come out on media.

 

[gamaji]

Discounted prices??? We have paid standard price for almost all of our equipment, $40 Million lmao, this guy really thinks China sold us J-10Cs cheaper than what they themselves buy it for

So, what do you think, J-10C should have a price tag of $25m? I am wondering how much F-16 block 70 a pop would cost us if offered to us at all (leaving the political cost/strings aside)?

 

[gamaji]

IDK why but some Pakistanis here tend to think that we can get access to china's top tier tech with full TOT at cheap prices like???we need a large industrial base for producing fighters even like the jf17 b3 and this is if CAC pulls their support..we need large investments and develpments in our home grown metallurgy industry including mills,fabricators,tooling etc...which will come at a big price also do we need the j10c in that big of a number to make a fully production line...mind you that the line while similar to jf17 is gonna cost money too...also the weapons that would be integrated ,the ew suites and what not....it took china years to develop the industries on which it stands on...Our major problem is money and money....the more money you give to china the better tech you will get(most probable scenario)...also the idea of a seperate fifth jen fighter liek a single engine j20 is dumb tbh..china is fast moving towards 6th jen and currently has two operational fifth jen fighters and one of which is in large numbers...our best best is to get j35 from china(most probably on loan)in the next 10 years cuz india aint getting one before 2035 atleast..so up until the j35 comes we will fill the gaps with j10c..

In addition, as Michael previously said, Pakistanis must attain the background/theoretical knowledge of design principals of an aircraft (e.g. JF-17) for really understanding why the specs are like as they currently are and what would happen if any parameter is changed.

That's not to say that Pakistanis are totally missing that theoretical knowledge because, as AM (R) Shahid Latif once said, Pakistani engineers/technicians working of JF-17 project in China were sent to Chinese universities to attain the prerequisite knowledge for them to complate their project tasks/assignments.

The PAF's initiation of PFX program is indicative of the confidence that it has in its current knowledgebase. There is apparently no reason to get skeptical about PAF's determination and capabilities in this regards.

 

[MH.Yang]

There was an ongoing discussion with Michael. I used an analogy of Pakistan being where China was in 1990. We have no comparison to China in anything. The message I was trying to convey was, in 90's, Chinese did a lot of hard work, acquired technologies, created various projects some successful, some money wasted, trial, error, learning, all effort to become a process engineering powerhouse for the future. There was a lot of will to grow and hard work made it happen.

In that regards, today, we are standing at almost that place, where we want to produce 5th gen tech and are willing to learn, try, do hard work and become successful but practically, through a join project.

In 1962, Chinese troops decisively routed Indian forces in a border conflict. By then, the Chinese vanguard was within 300 kilometers of New Delhi, where residents had even begun building street forts. But the Chinese army chose to retreat rather than continue the offensive. Why? Because after China's defeat of India, the Soviet Union and the United States quickly ended the Cuban Missile Crisis, and both countries provided massive military assistance to India.

This is the harsh reality our Pakistani brothers need to recognize. Russia and Western countries already view Pakistan as an extension of Chinese influence. If the Indian army suffers a devastating defeat that shakes the foundations of the government's rule, Western countries and Russia will undoubtedly end the war in Ukraine immediately and provide large-scale military aid to India. In that event, China, Pakistan, and India will be plunged into a long-term, high-intensity, all-out war. Our enemy will not be just India, but the entire West plus Russia.

This is why I have consistently emphasized that it is not in Pakistan's interest to actively provoke an arms race or escalate conflict. Pakistan faces completely different enemies in defensive and offensive warfare. Given these circumstances, Pakistan's fighter jet upgrade program should be carefully paced and should not significantly outpace India's.

 

[CSAW]