September 19, 2025
Saudi Arabia has inked a bilateral defense agreement with Pakistan that places Saudi Arabia under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella. The defense arrangement is seen as a deterrent against Iran and also Israel. According to a
Reuters report, the “
Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia on 09/17/25 effectively uses Riyadh’s money to leverage Pakistan’s nuclear-arms as a protective shield.
The arrangement also provides a doorway for China, which has built two highly subsidized Hualong One PWR in Karachi, to follow up with a deal with Saudi Arabia to build multiple units in Saudi Arabia. China’s plan in building the two reactors in Pakistan promoted them as being part of its global “
Belt & Road” program. It has also given Saudi nuclear officials multiple opportunities to kick the tires of the Hualong One PWR as an equal choice to anything the West has to offer.
Such a deal would also end the ongoing and seemingly intractable disputes between Saudi Arabia and the US over its right to enrichment as a non-negotiable precondition for U.S. or South Korea to build reactors for Saudi Arabia. It would freeze out these two nations while allowing China to win the table for exports of its reactors to Saudi Arabia.
What’s in the Pakistan Agreement with Saudi Arabia?
The deal with Pakistan states that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” according to statements issued by both Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry and the state-run Saudi Press Agency.
“This agreement … aims to develop aspects of defense cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression,” the statement said.
A Shortcut to Having the Equivalent of Its Own Nuclear Weapons Program
As a practical matter the Saudi/Pakistan deal is the equivalent of Saudi Arabia having a nuclear weapons program without committing to the enormous expense and foreign affairs complications that would come solely with a domestic effort.
Saudi Arabia has declined to sign a 123 Agreement with the U.S. over its repeated claims to the right to enrich uranium as a precursor to having its owns nuclear weapons program. South Korea is also affected as its 123 Agreement with the US prohibits nuclear exports to countries that do not also have similar agreements. A waiver of this condition could be a tough political sell in Congress.
Reuters reported that when asked whether Pakistan would now be obliged to provide Saudi Arabia with a nuclear umbrella, a senior Saudi official told Reuters: “This is a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means.”
In addition to providing a deterrence capability against Iran, Reuters also reported a comment from
Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East Policy at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies who said,
“From the Saudi perspective, it is intended to plug the strategic and conventional deterrence deficit vis-a-vis nuclear-armed Israel.”
The deal comes following
Israeli strikes on Qatar to kill Hamas leaders living there. Pakistan’s nuclear capable missiles have the range to hit targets in Israel.
Image: CSIS Missile Defense Project reproduced by India Today
Since 1998, Western nation diplomats and intelligence agencies have believed that an agreement exists in which Pakistan would sell Saudi Arabia nuclear warheads and its own nuclear technology should security in the Persian Gulf deteriorate. Both countries have sharply denied the existence of such an agreement. As of today that arrangement is no longer a secret
Why the Agreement is Good for Chinese Nuclear Reactor Exports
In 2019
this blog wrote that that Saudi Arabia’s assertion that if it cannot get what it wants in terms of a civilian nuclear procurement program from the U.S., that it would turn to China for commercial nuclear reactors. China would also provide the fuel for them bypassing objections from the U.S. The door is now open for such a move with Pakistan as the enabler of the deal due to just announced nuclear defense deal it has made public with the Saudi government.
China has
built two of its Hualong One PWRs in Karachi while absorbing almost all of the costs.
Saudi Arabia’s latest formal and public agreement with Pakistan opens the door to China to provide its Hualong PWRs to Saudi Arabia which is thwarted in its efforts to buy nuclear reactors from the U.S. and South Korea because of its determination to enrich uranium. It no long has to worry about having its own enrichment capacity due to the defense arrangement it now has with Pakistan.
Further, it can now carry out its long standing threat to buy reactors from China due to the fact that China has a successful track record of building its Hualong One PWRs not only the two in Pakistan but also for its domestic commercial nuclear power program. China has completed five Hualong One reactors and connected them to the grid for revenue service. It has plans to build at least a dozen more.
Compared to any other nation state or commercial vendor, China has demonstrated its capabilities to build 1000 MW+ PWRs in fleet mode.
In summary, no one should be surprised if the Saudi government ditches its three times postponed decision on its nuclear reactor tender and inks a deal with China for Hualong One nuclear reactors, fuel, and operating expertise.
The Nuclear Equivalent of Oil Released for Export by Building Nuclear Reactors
There is a second mutual set of advantages for Saudi Arabia and China to have a deal to supply Hualong One PWRs to the Saudis.
A 1,000+ MW commercial nuclear reactor would produce electricity that would require approximately 10.8 million barrels of oil to produce the same amount of electricity
over a 12-month period according to the US Energy Information Administration.
This means that every 1,000 MW+ PWR built by China in Saudi Arabia would free up about 11 million barrels a year of oil for export, including to China, that would otherwise be used to meet domestic energy needs. Such an arrangement over the long term would allow Saudi Arabia to build its planned fleet of 16 nuclear reactors based on trading oil for nuclear reactor generating capacity from China.
Saudi Arabia would pay for Chinese nuclear reactors with exports to China of the equivalent amount of oil freed up from domestic uses by bringing these reactors online for electricity generation for domestic and industrial uses including water desalination. China currently buys about 20% of Saudi oil exports making it one Saudi Arabia’s biggest trading partners.
Background of the Saudi Pakistan Nuclear Relationship
In 2019
this blog wrote that that Saudi Arabia’s assertion that if it cannot get what it wants in terms of a civilian nuclear procurement program from the U.S., that it would turn to China with Pakistan playing a major role.
First of all the history of development of Pakistan nuclear weapons program is rife with reports of KSA cash to help pay for it. Saudi Arabia has provided billions of dollars in assistance to shore up cash-strapped Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves. The assistance has also come in the form of subsidized oil exports to Pakistan.
According to a
Wikipedia article, in news media reports and think tanks studies it is widely believed that Saudi Arabia has been a major source of funding for Pakistan’s atomic bomb project since 1974.
In 2003,
globalsecurity.org reported that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia entered a secret agreement on nuclear cooperation providing Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons technology in return for access to cheap oil for Pakistan. Pakistan is
outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty which means it has no international constraints on sharing uranium enrichment technologies with Saudi Arabia.
A
Brookings study published in 2008 provided details of one key aspect of this support.
“In May 1998 when Pakistan was deciding whether to respond to India’s test of five nuclear weapons, the Saudis promised 50,000 barrels per day of free oil to help the Pakistanis cope with the economic sanctions that might be triggered by a counter test. The Saudi oil commitment was a key to then Prime Minster Nawaz Sharif’s decision to proceed with testing. It cushioned the subsequent U.S. and EU sanctions on Pakistan considerably.”
The
AFX wire service reported in 2006 that Saudi Arabia was working secretly on a nuclear program, with help from Pakistani experts, the German magazine Cicero reported, citing Western security sources.
In 2013 a
BBC report covered many of these previous developments and added this alarming description of the KSA relationship with Pakistan with regard to nuclear weapons.
“One senior Pakistani, speaking on background terms, confirmed the broad nature of the deal – probably unwritten – his country had reached with the kingdom and asked rhetorically “what did we think the Saudis were giving us all that money for? It wasn’t charity.”
Another, a one-time intelligence officer from the same country, said he believed “the Pakistanis certainly maintain a certain number of warheads on the basis that if the Saudis were to ask for them at any given time they would immediately be transferred.”
The BBC also reported that Gary Samore, who served as President Barack Obama’s counter-proliferation adviser, has told Newsnight:
“I do think that the Saudis believe that they have some understanding with Pakistan that, in extremis, they would have claim to acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan.”
In January 2019 the
Washington Post reported that the Pakistan shared ballistic missile technologies it bought from China with Saudi Arabia.
