Iranian Chill Thread

[jauk]

What you even talking about? As an Aussie you are too worried about us.

Corruption is a common phenomenon in every economy, point is, the corrupt must be identified and dealt with accordingly. It's exactly the same thing that's happening in Iran.

Iranian economy pre revolution was totally dependent on oil export. It was hard to shift it and change the source of income esp with people like Rafsanjani on top of influential figures.

The economy is decoupling from oil hence the challenges imposed on it today. Add that to hard sanctions.

All in all, Iranians are people of hard days, we will never give up.

Aye mate! The water’s great! @Immortals FYI

 

[Persian Gulf]

Even IMF data shows that Iranian economy has improved and also slowed down the inflation.

a few years of small growth makes up for decades of stagnation ? I seriously advise you to look at a chart of GDP of Iran and Turkey and Saudi Arabia since 1970

 

[muhammed45]

a few years of small growth makes up for decades of stagnation ? I seriously advise you to look at a chart of GDP of Iran and Turkey and Saudi Arabia since 1970

So you compare Iranian economy to Saudis? Are you joking mate? Let me know if you joke

 

[Tehrani021]

I will leave that to the economists

and IRI also publishes its own numbers, unless you want to disavow those as well

I didn't disavow anything or make any judgement, I simply asked a question. Where do you access these numbers?

 

[Persian Gulf]

So you compare Iranian economy to Saudis? Are you joking mate? Let me know if you joke

1970 GDP per capita:

Iran = $385
Turkey = $502 (1.3x)
Saudi = $880 (2.3x)

2022:

Iran = $4,669
Turkey = $10,675 (2.3x)
Saudi = $30,450 (6.5x)

source: World Bank

before you ask about GDP (PPP), those numbers are not much better

 

[Tehrani021]

So you compare Iranian economy to Saudis? Are you joking mate? Let me know if you joke

Even IMF data shows that Iranian economy has improved and also slowed down the inflation.

Right! Looking at western estimations of GDP in USD when Iran trades in various currencies including crypto, then how accurate are these values? Thats why we need to show evidence for the claims we make, and can't allow regime-derrangement-syndrome cloud accuracy and fairness.

 

[Tehrani021]

1970 GDP per capita:

Iran = $385
Turkey = $502 (1.3x)
Saudi = $880 (2.3x)

2022:

Iran = $4,669
Turkey = $10,675 (2.3x)
Saudi = $30,450 (6.5x)

source: World Bank

before you ask about GDP (PPP), those numbers are not much better

Those are verified numbers in USD, not other currencies or cypto which Iran also uses to circumvent sanctions.

 

[muhammed45]

1970 GDP per capita:

Iran = $385
Turkey = $502 (1.3x)
Saudi = $880 (2.3x)

2022:

Iran = $4,669
Turkey = $10,675 (2.3x)
Saudi = $30,450 (6.5x)

source: World Bank

before you ask about GDP (PPP), those numbers are not much better

Saudi economy is a shit show. It is a non existent economy that will disappear overnight after one American blink.

Iran has a self sufficient economy.

 

[925boy]

I want to have the opinion of people here

How Ukraine will pay back the US, EU, Japan etc for all their 100+b$ worth of equipment and systems?

Ukraine was/is supposed to pay back US, EU and NATO by giving them considerable access to and control of Ukraine's territory and facilities, with the goal of either integrating Ukraine into NATO, or using Ukraine as a national "forward station" to operate against Russia Remember the last time NATO tried to get a forward station on Russia's border led to the Georgia war of 2008.

But Ukraine can't really pay back with $$, so it will either cede territory and sovereign things and manage the war the best it can with EU only money, after all, Republicans in US are hesitant to fund Ukraine, because they now see its war as a losing investment, but at the start of the war, Republicans and Democrats "supported" Ukraine.
Ukraine obviously and apparently lives and exists off Western funding and financial systems (IMF for e.g.).

 

[Persian Gulf]

Saudi economy is a shit show. It is a non existent economy that will disappear overnight after one American blink.

Iran has a self sufficient economy.

according to living standards it is far from a shit show

do you think if iran could export 10m barrels of oil per day it would not?

some of you guys are very delusional unfortunately, economic situation in iran is very very bad.

 

[Immortals]

Saudi economy is a shit show. It is a non existent economy that will disappear overnight after one American blink.

Iran has a self sufficient economy.

That was true pre-MBS. But now Saudis are divesting from oil and moving into many different facets.

without MBS, Saudi Arabia was poised for irrelevancy and economic obsoletion. It’s true they rely on USA for support. That will likely always be the case. Saudi Arabia has no desire to become some hegemonic power and escape the USA security umbrella. Where as Turkey and Iran want to be their own respective decision making powers.

Iran hardly has a self sufficent economy. Toman has gone from $1 USD per 1200 to $1 USD per 57,000 from 2010 to 2024. That cannot be blamed on sanctions alone as the Obama era sanctions caused toman to depreciate 3-4x, NOT 40x+

Iran is top 5 producers of natural gas, but not even a top 15 exporter! Most of natural gas is consumed by its own energy intensive population.

NO LNG capability and still flaring gas off due to antiquated equipment, costing billions of dollars in missed revenue. Still unable to get its share of Pars gas field as Qatar continues to deplete the field faster than Iran can lay down equipment.

It has a worry water crisis and climate change is forcing iran to rely greater amounts on international trade for its wheat/rice/and food.

Oil production has yet to reach 1970’s peaks despite having top 5 oil reserves in the world.


While Iran’s evasion of sanctions is commendable, there is much work to be done. Calling Iran a self sufficent economy implies great economic conditions. We all know that economic conditions in Iran are the worst in nearly half a century.

Iranian advancement can happen despite this, but just because there is advancement does not mean there is not major structural problems. That is important to point out

 

[925boy]

How do we truly know the GDP of a country like Iran when most of its trade is not done with USD?

You use PPP - Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) to get a more accurate and realistic estimate of Iran's GDP. When PPP is used, Iran's GDP is higher. I think Iran is past peak sanctions, because it has had time to grow, adapt, expand and reinforce its economy. Being a big energy player, Iran also has that industry (oil, Gas, petrochemicals, etc.-basically hydrocarbons based commodities) as a cushion and economic backup for the country.

 

[Tehrani021]

You use PPP - Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) to get a more accurate and realistic estimate of Iran's GDP. When PPP is used, Iran's GDP is higher. I think Iran is past peak sanctions, because it has had time to grow, adapt, expand and reinforce its economy. Being a big energy player, Iran also has that industry (oil, Gas, petrochemicals, etc.-basically hydrocarbons based commodities) as a cushion and economic backup for the country.

Thank you for that. I just had a look at the wiki page for list of countries by GDP based on PPP, which is for the year 2022, and Iran has a much higher value than what we see in nominal gdp. However when you look at other nations they also have higher values, so it's still relative. So does PPP take into consideration products sold in other currencies as well as crypto, or is it still USD?

 

[muhammed45]

That was true pre-MBS. But now Saudis are divesting from oil and moving into many different facets.

without MBS, Saudi Arabia was poised for irrelevancy and economic obsoletion. It’s true they rely on USA for support. That will likely always be the case. Saudi Arabia has no desire to become some hegemonic power and escape the USA security umbrella. Where as Turkey and Iran want to be their own respective decision making powers.

Iran hardly has a self sufficent economy. Toman has gone from $1 USD per 1200 to $1 USD per 57,000 from 2010 to 2024. That cannot be blamed on sanctions alone as the Obama era sanctions caused toman to depreciate 3-4x, NOT 40x+

Iran is top 5 producers of natural gas, but not even a top 15 exporter! Most of natural gas is consumed by its own energy intensive population.

NO LNG capability and still flaring gas off due to antiquated equipment, costing billions of dollars in missed revenue. Still unable to get its share of Pars gas field as Qatar continues to deplete the field faster than Iran can lay down equipment.

It has a worry water crisis and climate change is forcing iran to rely greater amounts on international trade for its wheat/rice/and food.

Oil production has yet to reach 1970’s peaks despite having top 5 oil reserves in the world.


While Iran’s evasion of sanctions is commendable, there is much work to be done. Calling Iran a self sufficent economy implies great economic conditions. We all know that economic conditions in Iran are the worst in nearly half a century.

Iranian advancement can happen despite this, but just because there is advancement does not mean there is not major structural problems. That is important to point out

What you say is the challenges that Iranian economy is currently facing or the challenges that has started already and needs to be solved.

I can do the same for American economy that even fails to keep Obama care for it's people's health. Or the challenges imposed by growing Chinese and Indian economies. If USA continues with the same borrowing despite the fact that it is printing it's own money, their economy will be degraded to much worse and lower levels and in 2 or 3 decades Indonesian economy will leave US behind. Or the challenges on its borders with Mexico etc.

If Iranian economy wasn't self sufficient, It surely wouldn't have been able to tolerate 45 years of an all out sanctions regime and western war on its economy. It has become self sufficient in most areas and it's becoming self sufficient in the remaining ones.

If Iranian leadership was corrupt, the first thing that would have been lost was to be people's faith in the system which would have eventually led to collapse of Iranian governance system by a long time ago.

according to living standards it is far from a shit show

do you think if iran could export 10m barrels of oil per day it would not?

some of you guys are very delusional unfortunately, economic situation in iran is very very bad.

Selling 10 million barrel of oil is the biggest stupidity of any country in the world, no matter Sauds or Iranians.TThere is nothing to be proud of.

Why would you sell your valuable resources that actually belongs to generations after you for a handful of useless toilet papers called dollar? We can literally screw the future of Iranian generations by selling their most valuable resource for Coca and something like NEOM. We are talking about a resource that takes hundreds of thousands of years to be created.

That's not what we should do. Unless for filling the gaps in economy.

 

[Immortals]

I can do the same for American economy that even fails to keep Obama care for it's people's health.

Capitalism is not meant to lead to government sponsored healthcare. True capitalism is supposed to be lean government not what America is today. Ironically most of the problems of America are tied to entitlement programs (Medicare, medicaid, social security) and lavish military spending. These two groups make up most of the US budget.

So entitlement programs are slowing draining and killing the Empire.

Or the challenges imposed by growing Chinese and Indian economies.

China has its own major problem. It’s population is set to go from 1.3B to 500M by 2100. It is set to lose 300M by 2040-2050. Negative birth rates.

If USA continues with the same borrowing despite the fact that it is printing it's own money, their economy will be degraded to much worse and lower levels and in 2 or 3 decades Indonesian economy will leave US behind. Or the challenges on its borders with Mexico etc.

We have heard this talk before. No one knows the when or outcome of irrational fiscal spending. However, you can be assured if US collapses most fiat will collapse alongside it as US underpins the global financial system and is considered the reserve currency of the world.

Collapse of the dollar will create a global contagion as fear and panic cause civilians to dump fiat currencies in their respective countries for gold or anything that they deem more stable.

If Iranian economy wasn't self sufficient, It surely wouldn't have been able to tolerate 45 years of an all out sanctions regime and western war on its economy.

Until Obama era, Iran was selling oil to everyone including EU. Even US oil companies had dealings with Iran in the 90’s. The most draconian sanctions was the oil sanctions and that sent iran into a hyperinflation spiral. That has been only the last 10-15 years, not 45 years.

We commend Iran on its sanctions busting capabilities. However, Russia has also been able to adept these same capabilities in a little under 2 years.

It has become self sufficient in most areas and it's becoming self sufficient in the remaining ones.

I see no adancmeent in oil industry or natural gas industry or liquidified natural gas technologies. Those industries needs $100B+ of reinvestment that Iran doesn’t have.

If Iranian leadership was corrupt, the first thing that would have been lost was to be people's faith in the system which would have eventually led to collapse of Iranian governance system by a long time ago.

Losing faith started in the 90’s and started picking up in 2010 and recently with Mahsa protests.

The country is divided, much like US. Wether those against the current government are right or wrong is a different topic altogether and not the basis of conversation.

Selling 10 million barrel of oil is the biggest stupidity of any country in the world, no matter Sauds or Iranians.TThere is nothing to be proud of.

There is $1T+ USD of oil underground that will (given time) become more obsolete with newer technologies.

You would let such crucial funds go to waste because of such a viewpoint?

Where do you think Saudi Arabia is getting the funds for all these ambitious projects aimed at building an economy one day that is free from oil revenues.

Why would you sell your valuable resources that actually belongs to generations after you for a handful of useless toilet papers called dollar?

Sell it for gold. Sell it for Yuan. Sell it for anything you want.

Your thought process is a bit irrational to say the least.

We can literally screw the future of Iranian generations by selling their most valuable resource for Coca and something like NEOM. We are talking about a resource that takes hundreds of thousands of years to be created.

And that resource will by 2100 be less in demand then today and that means the price you can sell it will continue to fall as supplies build up from all of the remaining oil producers desperate to get their inventory sold.

Oil will not be black gold forever. With fusion technology, future electric energy, nuclear energy, wind energy, solar energy, and other breakthroughs oil will become a thing of the past as its affects on Earth is well documented.

Sell it before it is a useless cheap good.

Remember there was a time in human history where Table Salt was very expensive and considered a luxury for the rich.