Iranian Air Force (IRIAF/IRGC-ASF) | News and Discussions

[Sipahsalar]

You ridiculed the F-313

That reminds me, what’s the update on qaher-313?

 

[Shafagh]

— NEW: MP Zohrevand was given an official warning by the Judiciary and Disciplinary Committee of Parliament and was basically told to stop yapping so much

They told him to pay closer attention to 'national security' when disseminating sensitive information.

Whether that confirms the information he said about the MiG-29s or not, judge for yourself.

@Middle_East_Spectator

 

[ToddE]

— NEW: MP Zohrevand was given an official warning by the Judiciary and Disciplinary Committee of Parliament and was basically told to stop yapping so much

They told him to pay closer attention to 'national security' when disseminating sensitive information.

Whether that confirms the information he said about the MiG-29s or not, judge for yourself.

@Middle_East_Spectator

He said new MIG-29 have arrived in Iran from Russia, probably at Shiraz FAB.

Rumor peddlers on X are saying that IRI has asked for hundreds of MIG-29M/MIG-35 + up-gradation of local fleet (24) to SMT standards.
No evidence yet so its probably BS. Since its coming from an MP, it could be a deliberate attempt to cover the collapse of SU-35S deal. Like Oh forget our failure of procuring SU-35S, lets waste few more months talking about MIG-29 deal, yeah the same MIG-29 that Yeltsin's drunk azz fooled Ayatollah Rafsanjani over in 1991 after receiving cash (72 Mig-29, 24 MIG-31) but supplying less than 1/4th airframes.

 

[TallGuy]

@Mr Iran Eye

Any updates regarding the situation at Tabriz & Dezful. (IRIAF related)

 

[Shags101]

He said new MIG-29 have arrived in Iran from Russia, probably at Shiraz FAB.

Rumor peddlers on X are saying that IRI has asked for hundreds of MIG-29M/MIG-35 + up-gradation of local fleet (24) to SMT standards.
No evidence yet so its probably BS. Since its coming from an MP, it could be a deliberate attempt to cover the collapse of SU-35S deal. Like Oh forget our failure of procuring SU-35S, lets waste few more months talking about MIG-29 deal, yeah the same MIG-29 that Yeltsin's drunk azz fooled Ayatollah Rafsanjani over in 1991 after receiving cash (72 Mig-29, 24 MIG-31) but supplying less than 1/4th airframes.

I thought it was a joke too but looking to be legit

Iran’s Air Force receives batch of Russian MiG-29s | The Jerusalem Post

Their arrival underscores Tehran’s urgency to bolster its aerial capabilities amid regional tensions and after Operation Rising Lion

www.jpost.com

How many I guess you guys will find out soon enough if it’s anything less than a dozen it’s laughable and better be the latest model not something they had in storage for a decade

 

[ToddE]

I thought it was a joke too but looking to be legit

Iran’s Air Force receives batch of Russian MiG-29s | The Jerusalem Post

Their arrival underscores Tehran’s urgency to bolster its aerial capabilities amid regional tensions and after Operation Rising Lion

www.jpost.com

How many I guess you guys will find out soon enough if it’s anything less than a dozen it’s laughable and better be the latest model not something they had in storage for a decade

All of these news agencies are using the same source, the MP guy. They before this, also jumped on the SU-35S news once Babak T account broke it on twitter in 2022. So I will be cautious of believing it until its seen.

As for the numbers, if we go by the need, then it should be close to 200 4th Gen Air-superiority fighters. But knowing IRI's hatred for its own AF and Russian backstabbing in past, I will say "IF" its actually happening, the numbers can be around additional ~30 airframes with current fleet of 24 air-frames being upgraded to give IRIAF a token fleet of 50-60 interceptors that cant do anything against ALBM launching IAF over Iraq.

I am more interested in timing of this announcement when EU-US-Iran talks are happening. If missile ranges are being discussed with US then could it be a compensation by US to let Russia allow transfer some old airframes to Iran and in return Iran can guarantee no more IRBM/MRBM production? Like Missiles for Fighters program ?

 

[Shafagh]

I thought it was a joke too but looking to be legit

Iran’s Air Force receives batch of Russian MiG-29s | The Jerusalem Post

Their arrival underscores Tehran’s urgency to bolster its aerial capabilities amid regional tensions and after Operation Rising Lion

www.jpost.com

How many I guess you guys will find out soon enough if it’s anything less than a dozen it’s laughable and better be the latest model not something they had in storage for a decade

Well they are only citing Zohrevand's comments.

If true, it's a small glimmer of hope.

I still think we should buy North Korean. Their technology isn't compromised.

 

[BigMela2onin]

I am more interested in timing of this announcement when EU-US-Iran talks are happening. If missile ranges are being discussed with US then could it be a compensation by US to let Russia allow transfer some old airframes to Iran and in return Iran can guarantee no more IRBM/MRBM production? Like Missiles for Fighters program ?

Where is this optimism coming from? Iran is going to unilaterally limit it's missiles for nothing in return, just like everything else it has given concessions on so far.

 

[Shafagh]

Where is this optimism coming from? Iran is going to unilaterally limit it's missiles for nothing in return, just like everything else it has given concessions on so far.

You don't know that.

 

[BigMela2onin]

You don't know that.

All the west needs to do to is give a vague promise of maybe one day just a bit of sanctions relief possibly if they feel like it and the stars align, and IR will start tripping over itself running to accept it in 20 minutes or less! Then the west can withdraw from their end or simply not bother carrying it out and IR will continue to abide to "show the world how reasonable we are" while complaining about how they were deceived yet again. It's worked 100 times now and continues to work on gullible olagh IR diplomats so I don't see why they would change it up now.

 

[ToddE]

Where is this optimism coming from? Iran is going to unilaterally limit it's missiles for nothing in return, just like everything else it has given concessions on so far.

I am not saying US or West in general wont back down from their promises. They know IRI's weaknesses inside out so for all we know they might trick weak IRI to sign on something only to break it in future. They have done it before and saw Iran doing nothing in return. Soleimani's assasination was illegal by all means, Iran should have ripped NPT apart and tested devices in return to establish some level of deterence but IRI chickened out so west knows IRI Ayatollahs have no balls to begin with.

I mean look at from their perspective. Israel took a beating from IRGCAF (forget causalities for a sec). Worlds most gaurded and layered airspace was breached regularly, ports, institutes, population centers everything got hit. IRGCAF just was not getting deterred because they had the Missile Power to do so. What if this missile power is curbed to ineffectivity while Mullahs can get few stupid Russian jets to show in Parades as "prize" of diplomacy. In reality it will be Iran getting its strike arms cut. Basically another Turkey or KSA 2.0 with a 4th generation AF but no effective Missile Strike Capability that can threaten Israel and western interests.

I am only guessing because of MP's disclosure and Larijani's rant about US asking for Missile program curbing all happening at the same time and both in state media. We know Khamenei settled for 2000 KM figure before and around same time numbers of FMC F-14A's increased (Articles said US let spare reach Iran). They knew Iran having few dozen 1970s interceptors wont mean anything but it will make sure Iran does not take DPRK's route of testing ICBMs every month. West knows how to play with these dumb priests.

 

[Shafagh]

I am not saying US or West in general wont back down from their promises. They know IRI's weaknesses inside out so for all we know they might trick weak IRI to sign on something only to break it in future. They have done it before have not they and saw Khamenei doing nothing in return. Soleimani's assasination was illegal, Iran should have ripped NPT apart and tested devices in return to establish some level of deterence but IRI chickened out so west knows IRI ayatollahs have no balls to begin with.

I mean look at from their perspective. Israel took a beating from IRGCAF (forget causalities for a sec). Worlds most gaurded and layered airspace was breached regularly, ports, institutes, population centers everything got hit. IRGCAF just was not getting deterred because they had the Missile Power to do so. What if this missile power is curbed to ineffectivity while Mullahs can get few stupid Russian jets to show in Parades as "prize" of diplomacy. In reality it will be Iran getting its strike arms cut. Turkey or KSA 2.0 with 4th generation AF but no effective Missile Strike Capability.

Still not enough. Israelis were prepared to deal with hundreds of casualties. I read an article by an ex Israeli military analyst from 10 years ago. He said we will not lose 1000 Israelis, we will not lose 500 Israelis, in a war with Iran. Maybe a hundred some, but it's an acceptable number of casualties that we can stomach. He used this belief to justify attacking Iran in the near future. Now here we are.

Either they know Iran's leadership is too gutless to launch a severe blow, or they have concluded that they can deal with Iran's missile salvos and survive. Either way, he was right.

I think the proliferation of hypersonic weapons has given Iran some degree of credible capability that they might not have predicted, but nevertheless, if they were saying this 10 years ago, and it came true, then Iran is in big trouble. The west knows Iranian leadership better than they know themselves. In the end, it's SL's call and he seems way too cautious to approve the necessary decisive uppercut that Iran needs to deliver to deter Israel. Khamenei was like this in the 80s. He even said he didn't think he was fit for SL role.

Trump is a populist. He won't fall for a regional war. Iran needed to have escalated, and demonstrate what everyone feared. Not prove the neo-cons right; that Iran is a paper tiger.

 

[ToddE]

Still not enough. Israelis were prepared to deal with hundreds of casualties. I read an article by an ex Israeli military analyst from 10 years ago. He said we will not lose 1000 Israelis, we will not lose 500 Israelis, in a war with Iran. Maybe a hundred some, but it's an acceptable number of casualties that we can stomach. He used this belief to justify attacking Iran in the near future. Now here we are.

Either they know Iran's leadership is too gutless to launch a severe blow, or they have concluded that they can deal with Iran's missile salvos and survive. Either way, he was right.

I think the proliferation of hypersonic weapons has given Iran some degree of credible capability that they might not have predicted, but nevertheless, if they were saying this 10 years ago, and it came true, then Iran is in big trouble. The west knows Iranian leadership better than they know themselves. In the end, it's SL's call and he seems way too cautious to approve the necessary decisive uppercut that Iran needs to deliver to deter Israel. Khamenei was like this in the 80s. He even said he didn't think he was fit for SL role.

Trump is a populist. He won't fall for a regional war. Iran needed to have escalated, and demonstrate what everyone feared. Not prove the neo-cons right; that Iran is a paper tiger.

Your are mixing deterrence and damage. Iran took damage but was it deterred by Israel+US ? No because it had the means (missile power) to strike back hard till the last moment before ceasefire. Israeli airspace was breached open despite having worlds best layered AD delivered to their doorstep. Now how many people died and or how much $$$ was burnt does not matter here, its the case of Israeli shield being torn to pieces every time IRGCAF wanted. This will concern an Israeli decision maker more than anything.

Also, what if Turkey or any other Arab country goes total rogue in future and decides to develop its own Missile Strike on patterns of Iran ? Israel cant allow this Iranian example to become the doctrine of other countries in the region against which they know they are highly vulnerable. Its in their best interest to not let Iran keep this strike option in its hand or allow others to learn it. On the other hand they will be perfectly happy with IRIAF getting bundle of old Russian jets, even if in hundreds, flying within Iranian Airspace. They cant cause the damage that missile power does (Current Arab League, Turkey model).

 

[Shafagh]

Your are mixing deterrence and damage. Iran took damage but was it deterred by Israel+US ? No because it had the means (missile power) to strike back hard till the last moment before ceasefire. Israeli airspace was breached open despite having worlds best layered AD delivered to their doorstep. Now how many people died and or how much $$$ was burnt does not matter here, its the case of Israeli shield being torn to pieces every time IRGCAF wanted. This will concern an Israeli decision maker more than anything.

Also, what if Turkey or any other Arab country goes total rogue in future and decides to develop its own Missile Strike on patterns of Iran ? Israel cant allow this Iranian example to become the doctrine of other countries in the region against which they know they are highly vulnerable. Its in their best interest to not let Iran keep this strike option in its hand or allow others to learn it. On the other hand they will be perfectly happy with IRIAF getting bundle of old Russian jets, even if in hundreds, flying within Iranian Airspace. They cant cause the damage that missile power does (Current Arab League, Turkey model).

Well said. You make good points.

The Migs are still important. If not against Israelis, then against potential arab adversaries, Taliban, future ISIS etc. They still serve as a deterrence against Israeli drones and cruise missiles as well.

I guess you could see it as a skinny lightweight with a stick, vs a heavyweight with just fists. Yes Israel can poke and beat Iran with the stick. But Iran can absorb much more of a beating than Israel can. Iran could take 10 times more damage and still emerge on top.

What I worry though is preserving this missile capability. Iran needs to keep it's sword sharp. That means developing new systems, research into ABM counter measures for its missiles, improving accuracy.

The hypersonic missiles won't be as accurate as a conventional ballistic missile because the plasma build up interferes with the guidance system and sensors.

From what we learned from this war, Iran needs to further develop it's UAV infrastructure, meaning hardenned more survivable ground control systems, introduction of satellite guidance for long range operations.

Lastly, I will say it again; Iran's capabilities don't matter if the political leadership is too timid to embrace it and use it to it's full capacity. Without the political will, it's of no use.

 

[ToddE]

Well said. You make good points.

The Migs are still important. If not against Israelis, then against potential arab adversaries, Taliban, future ISIS etc. They still serve as a deterrence against Israeli drones and cruise missiles as well.

I guess you could see it as a skinny lightweight with a stick, vs a heavyweight with just fists. Yes Israel can poke and beat Iran with the stick. But Iran can absorb much more of a beating than Israel can. Iran could take 10 times more damage and still emerge on top.

What I worry though is preserving this missile capability. Iran needs to keep it's sword sharp. That means developing new systems, research into ABM counter measures for its missiles, improving accuracy.

The hypersonic missiles won't be as accurate as a conventional ballistic missile because the plasma build up interferes with the guidance system and sensors.

From what we learned from this war, Iran needs to further develop it's UAV infrastructure, meaning hardenned more survivable ground control systems, introduction of satellite guidance for long range operations.

Lastly, I will say it again; Iran's capabilities don't matter if the political leadership is too timid to embrace it and use it to it's full capacity. Without the political will, it's of no use.

IRI will commit the same suicide that Saddam, Assad, Gaddafi, Mobarek comitted before by giving up on nuclear weaponisation and missile program. In Iranian case, fighter Jets are for airspace defense mostly and mid level strike capability if ALBMs/long ranged SOWs are available but by no means they can substitute the IRGCAF's strike capabilities. Airforces can work when Aibases are functional but in an all out war against a capable enemy the runways wont be there forever and you cant just hide entire Airforce inside underground bases. IRGCAF can build missiles at home in hundreds and thousands, they can keep on firing with diverse arsenal we have seen it. Will that be possible if this capability is substituted by lets a hypothetical fleet of 250 MIG-29M/SMT/35? by no means yes. This is why fighter jets for missiles suits Israel because it will turn Iran into another Turkey, Egypt, KSA. If they remove sanctions against no HEU and let western investment/debt flow in Iranian market then IRI will be literally become a benign middle eastern country.

Remians to be seen what is true but I can totally see Khamenei accepting it against western gaurantee of IRI's survival.