ToddE
Trusted Member
Do not underestimate the spies within IRI. We have an army of disgruntled Iranians waiting to get back at regime.
Iranian Air Force (IRIAF/IRGC-ASF) | News and Discussions
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Do not underestimate the spies within IRI. We have an army of disgruntled Iranians waiting to get back at regime.
ShapurII
Trusted Member
Fair enough, but how can such a deal be inked?
So, in the JCPOA, it was IAEA reports that were used as the source of truth.
But in a deal about our missile program, what would be the source of truth? Their claims about their intelligence data? Would they cite their spies inside Iran to determine if Iran had violated the deal or not? Makes zero sense to me.
I just do not think such a deal is realistic. If it materializes, it will be multiple magnitudes worse than the JCPOA.
ToddE
Trusted Member
IRI was still respected as a sovereign nation when JCPOA was signed so deal clauses were respected. Evidences, accusations etc mattered. But things changed post Trump, post Soleimani and dozen other Generals, Scientists, officials were murdered in cold blood yet Cosmetic actions from Iran made them loose respect for IRI. If they get a hint from Iran that its secretly breaking the agreement, expect to see ALBMs flying from Iraqi airspace. What will Iran do in return? fire some BMs, they are ok with it.
Things would have been different had Iran acted more strategically post Soleimani or Fakhrizadeh. Ripping apart NPT was the way to go to establish posture but Khamenei refused responsibility.
Also, "IF" fighters jets will come from Russia in exchange for Missiles which I suspect (not proven) then they can simple ask Russia to stop spares and newly acquired MIGS will become F-14A like non flyable fleet of rust. Did not around JCPOA time, IRIN refused to send Kilo class to Russia from a retrofit out of fear that Russia will not return it due to American Pressure ?
That_Guy
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Their subs are not great. Their tanks are mostly old T-80s with either Chinese modifications, or outright fake modifications. Their "destroyers" are...questionable, with no evidence they're at all capable of fighting a proper naval war.
Also, a copy doesn't have to be as good as the original. The fact that they were capable of flying a massive Global Hawk clone is impressive in its own right.
kastor ville
Registered Member
I think the IRI has cost us more than 500 billion.....I don't want to scare you all, but the real number is in the trillions of dollars.
I've said this before in 1979, we we're exporting 5 mill+ barrels a day, Fast forward to now, we're a lot less than that, and we have to sell it at a discount, UAE was exporting 1.6 mill bpd, now, they're almost double that, and gas too. Qatar in 1979 was not exporting LNG, now it exports 79 million metric tons. Russia in 1979 3 mill bpd, today almost 5 mill bpd.....that's just the tip of the iceberg, the lost revenue, and then the investments that could've happened, the opportunity cost of that money never being made, and the market share that was taken by the other countries instead of us......can be trillions of dollars of lost revenue.
Estimated cost of 240 mill dollars lost per day, x 45 yrs is $3.94 Trillion dollars....and that's without compounding, or interest.
This is the amount the people of Iran have lost due to idiots and incompetent fools in charge. I wonder what Ghalibaf could've down to Tehran with that kind of money.....
Sipahsalar
Registered Member
That’s outdated news from 2000s. They build a lot of good stuff now. They’ve been building destroyers armed to the teeth at very fast speeds. Their artillery guns also got good reviews in Ukraine. They are also now making air to air missiles.
In return for helping Russia they will get a lot of tech transfer.
Flotilla
Trusted Member
You and Emirzad are talking like the Regime has signed a kind of contract or treaty stopping the enrichment and limiting the range of the Iranian missiles.
But again, if Khamenei didn't give up over enrichment issue, how can you assume they will give up in their only real deterrence capability?.
Your assumption doesn't fit in the reality. Just IMO.
sahureka2
Registered Member
Assuming the supply of MiG-29s is real, the question arises as to whether these MiG-29s came from aircraft in storage or from operational units.
Regarding the latter, I would like to point out that the 15 MiG-29SMTs already shipped to Algeria have been returned to Russia, plus another 9 still awaiting shipment, for a total of 24. These were then refurbished for use by the Russian Air Force and, if I'm not mistaken, assigned to the Russian air base in Gyumri, Armenia.
If these were the ones transferred, they would have arrived in Iran after only a short flight.
But this is only a remote hypothesis; most likely, if the MiG-29s were indeed transferred, they were removed from storage and, after being properly refurbished, delivered to Iran.
Regarding the latter, I would like to point out that the 15 MiG-29SMTs already shipped to Algeria have been returned to Russia, plus another 9 still awaiting shipment, for a total of 24. These were then refurbished for use by the Russian Air Force and, if I'm not mistaken, assigned to the Russian air base in Gyumri, Armenia.
If these were the ones transferred, they would have arrived in Iran after only a short flight.
But this is only a remote hypothesis; most likely, if the MiG-29s were indeed transferred, they were removed from storage and, after being properly refurbished, delivered to Iran.
ShapurII
Trusted Member
Have you ever read the details of the JCPOA?
Do you know what we gave and what we received?
I reiterate that uranium enrichment without a weapons program, for a country like Iran, is the highest level of treason.
hasssanali8998
Elite Member
i can say with 100 percent surety that there is a pilot inside that "drone "
hasssanali8998
Elite Member
i hope they are patriotic and do it for the betterment of Iranians and not to balkanize it
Flotilla
Trusted Member
So if Iran would give up on uranium enrichment, how would you call it?.
ShapurII
Trusted Member
A rational decision.
Iran has no need for uranium enrichment if it's not going to build the bomb.
We do not have enough uranium reserves to support a civilian nuclear program for several decades.
And we're going to build 6 new reactors with Russia. We just signed the contract with the Russians. We will have 7 reactors. We will need at least 180 tones of 3.5% enriched uranium to keep these reactors running.
The West didn't allow us to store even 13 tones of 3.5% LEU, produced in the span of nearly a decade, before the JCPOA. Do you think they will allow Iran to store 180 tones of 3.5% enriched uranium every year? A 140-fold increase in our enrichment capacity? I don't think so.
Even if we want to do that, and somehow grow balls and increase our enrichment capacity by 140 times!!!, we no longer have enrichment facilities that can host enough centrifuges for 2 million SWU UF6/year. And we do not have enough uranium reserves to support such a program for more than 20 years.
The Bushehr nuclear reactor has already been operational for about 12 years. Every single year, its fuel has been purchased from Russia. We haven't been able to produce its fuel even for a single year so far.
OldTwilight
Registered Member
Well , we took some old Mig-29s , if we can upgrade their radars , then its would be a viable options for 5 years before anything arrive ( J-10 , Su-35 or even J-35 if IRI have any real plan to buy anything )
Getting Mig29s from Russia in this short time just showed that I.R.I really didn't pursued buying Fighter jets in past 30 years ...
Getting Mig29s from Russia in this short time just showed that I.R.I really didn't pursued buying Fighter jets in past 30 years ...
BigMela2onin
Registered Member
I doubt IR bought even MiG-29s... and they certainly have no plans other than to let IRIAF keep rotting, let alone modernization.
