Pakistan-Af: Operation Khyber Storm

[RealNapster]

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Why does the state seem intent on provoking the people and stirring unrest nationwide?.... What’s the game plan behind it all?

Maybe another "udhar tum udhar ham" ?

 

[uknwit]

Maybe another "udhar tum udhar ham" ?

Hardly 400 people deciding the fate of a nation against millions who were robed of there right to select their representatives what other result do you expect?

Happened before might happen again God forbid. May Allah have mercy on us.

 

[uknwit]

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Why does the state seem intent on provoking the people and stirring unrest nationwide?.... What’s the game plan behind it all?

And the funny part is TLP is their own project which went out of control like all of their other projects.

Also lets not call them the state they are just occupiers that were imposed on us.

 

[Saifullah]

Ok here is a question for you.

How can Pakistan play ball with China to get its interests (mainly against TTP) straightened inside Afghanistan ?

Cut Afghanistan’s only land border with China by annexing Wakhan. Cut Afghanistan’s only land border with Iran through supporting rebels or direct annexation where possible. Make Chinese or any outsiders work in Afghanistan through Pakistan.
Just like TTP, many other militant groups with aims to destabilize other neighbours of Afghanistan are based in Afghanistan. Pakistan should convince these states to support Pakistan and make them a party to this conflict.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Some Problems Demand Power, Not Peace Talks -DG ISPR Blasting Statement - Kabul Air Strike -24NewsHD​

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[uknwit]

Some Problems Demand Power, Not Peace Talks -DG ISPR Blasting Statement - Kabul Air Strike -24NewsHD​

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With approval of the people not based on will of 1 institution whose has hardly 8 people making decisions for whole province. Without local support they will fail for sure.

 

[Saifullah]

When you nurture an ENTIRE society on the idea that your customs are your religion and your religion are your customs - and that you just need your gun, clothes, a plastic bottle of water and a large rag for miscellaneous uses - your cost of life is barely $500 and what you care about is nothing other than those customs and religion.

Many societies are built on customs and religion but don’t suffer what Pakistan suffers. All of GCC, Brunei, even many Christian countries. How did Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait etc manage to survive without terrorism while their societies are probably many folds more religious and customs focused than even Pakistan? Pre 9/11 large segments of their society supported AQ. Most of the GCC is Athari’s, the same Aqeedah AQ and Daesh claimed to follow. The propaganda these groups had directed at GCC Arabs was many folds stronger than whatever propaganda terrorists do in Pakistan. Majority of Muslims in Pakistan do not even follow the same Aqeedah as what AQ or Daesh claims to follow and most of Pakistan doesn’t even follow the Aqeedah Taliban or TTP claim to follow. So essentially, terrorists propaganda in Pakistan doesn’t even appeal to at least 70% of the population in Pakistan. In GCC it appealed to probably 95%+ of the people. They had the same tribal links and connections there. Even their governments played double games similar to Pakistan like how Saudi or UAE supported groups like AQ in Yemen or Libya.
But you can always argue the same taking points everyone uses like religious labels don’t mean anything to terrorists or our region have the same human pool that acts as all these groups.
But then why blame customs and religious practices for this mess?

It’s simple as Pakistani strategy has been flawed this whole time.

Also, Balochistan’s militants aren’t even religious. They’re communist/socialists and secularists. Their mean breeding ground is liberal universities. Are we still going to blame religion or because we made our customs or religion?

1400+ yrs of Islamic history and many examples of how to deal with khawarij. Even present day from Morocco to Indonesia, every successful or powerful Muslim country has seem to have dealt with terrorism. You have literal regimes in power who rose to power on the basis of Jihad (Syria and Afghanistan) who are doing better against counter insurgency than Pakistan.

Let’s say we did not have religion as our customs. What plan do you have to deal with independent Balochistan, Pashtunistan, or even Sindhudesh movements? Socialist/communist secular ideologies are foreign to Pakistan and Muslims. Still Pakistan hasn’t been able to deal with such groups who don’t even advocate for religion and a lot of their cadre are borderline if not actually atheist.

 

[Tariq Habib Afridi]

If a terrorists hiding behind children and continuously killing our children what you will do and when you know these children also grow and will spew venom.

I will pray that terrorist never get hold of your family or your children and if it so i will be still asking to do the counter operation with first priority saving your family and children. by the way who tell you that is the case in Tribal area? this one stupid guy shared a video where there was gunmen surrounding children and you believed it that it is what is happening all the time?

 

[Saifullah]

Not bad actors - the same ones just being led by poor advice and poor decisions.

There is literally no way to “wipe out” the TTP.
When you nurture an ENTIRE society on the idea that your customs are your religion and your religion are your customs - and that you just need your gun, clothes, a plastic bottle of water and a large rag for miscellaneous uses - your cost of life is barely $500 and what you care about is nothing other than those customs and religion.

Producing a Taliban fighter takes nothing because he learn it from childhood as part of normal upbringing. There is nothing different for him when he takes his gun up whether to protect himself from wolves or join some ideological forces.

You can either do a complete scorched earth so that Afghanistan no longer can sustain life besides microbes or you need to settle this situation with machivaellian ruthlessness.

To do the latter you need to have both a statesman mind and that of a local. So far no one at the top even through the crisis with India has demonstrated it.

To let limited success in military operations which were certainly helped along by an incompetent enemy go to one’s head is the mark of fools.

Also, when has a secular COIN operation ever permanently work against religious extremists? It was either brutal scorched earth and basically genocide or allowing religious folks their way of life but adapting it within the county’s framework. All of GCC, Aceh in Indonesia, Chechnya, and many North African countries have done this. They have segments of their populations who are extremely religious but instead of trying to divide religion from customs or trying to push some secular national identity on them, they allowed them to keep their religious identity but adapted it to not be at odds with the state or in Indonesia’s and Chechnya’s case, allowed them to live their way of life in their territory.
Maybe it’s Pakistan which needs the defence pact with Saudi. Ask Saudi to send over COIN advisors and learn how they dealt with post 9/11 and post 2013.

 

[Olympus81]

What was the point of DG ISPR to engage in political rhetoric and stir a hornet nest.

If sanity had prevailed, the ISPR should have used a reconciliatory tone and take the nation onboard at this critical juncture.

Strange comment by ISPR was that not to involve them in politics. I mean the establishment is essentially a political party so they should have the gall to face criticism.

 

[Signalian]

@Signalian
--
Conflict tracking & analysis complete with escalation and de-escalation outcomes
--
Since mid-2024–2025 Afghanistan remains a major source of illicit opiates and other contraband; trans-border smuggling routes through Pakistan (Khyber, Balochistan/Makran, and Sindh coast) continue to be exploited by criminal networks and sometimes taxed/leveraged by local armed actors.

[Source: https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/WDR_2025/WDR25_B1_Key_findings.pdf?]

Cross-border militant violence has increased in 2025 with high-profile ambushes and clashes in frontier areas, highlighting an upsurge in capability and activity by groups such as TTP and other insurgents operating along/from Afghan border areas. Islamabad has publicly blamed sanctuaries across the border; Kabul faces international pressure to act.

[Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...ved-attack-that-killed-11-soldiers-2025-10-10]

The drug economy remains a major enabler — rising opium/heroin prices and high profits create powerful incentives for smuggling and corruption that indirectly sustain militant logistics. UNODC and other agencies note sharply elevated prices and continued flows.

[Source: https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghanistan_Drug_Insights_V4.pdf]

Current Picture - factual anchors:

Recent violence: Pakistani forces reported operations after an ambush that killed soldiers in early October 2025; security operations and cross-border rhetoric have intensified. [Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...ed-attack-that-killed-11-soldiers-2025-10-10/]

Narcotics context: UNODC’s 2025 reporting documents continued dominance of Afghan opiates in regional trafficking, with higher prices increasing smuggling incentives; Pakistan remains a major transit route. [Source: https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/WDR_2025/WDR25_B1_Key_findings.pdf]

Insurgent landscape: TTP has re-emerged as a major national security threat inside Pakistan, while ISIS-K and various local networks remain active in the border region—multiplicity of actors complicates attribution of attacks and links to smuggling networks. [Source: https://acleddata.com/report/battle-borderlands-tehreek-i-taliban-pakistan-challenges-states-control]

Key drivers:
Economic incentives from illicit economies — record/high opium and heroin prices create financial rewards for smugglers and intermediaries; proceeds can be taxed/used by armed groups. [Source: https://unis.unvienna.org/unis/pressrels/2025/unisnar1495.htm]

Security vacuums and sanctuary dynamics — porous border areas, uneven control, and local alliances enable militant groups to regroup and operate across the frontier. Recent spikes in attacks indicate these sanctuaries are being exploited.[Source:https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...ved-attack-that-killed-11-soldiers-2025-10-10]

Organizational overlap — criminal smuggling networks, patronage networks, and some militant groups have transactional relationships (safe passage, finance, logistics). This blurs lines between pure “criminal” and “terrorist” flows. [Source:https://www.state.gov/wp-content/up...otics-Control-Strategy-Volume-1-Accessible.pd]

Regional geopolitics — shifting diplomatic relations (e.g., greater external engagement with Kabul) and interstate tensions affect cooperation on border control and counterterrorism.[Source: https://apnews.com/article/india-afghanistan-taliban-muttaqi-899bac27dee2422e88a54372bdd9efaa]

Timeline and Evidence:

Heat Mapping:

Historic Trend analysis:

Analysis:
Although terrorist attacks were recorded in all four provinces and the federal capital
in 2024, over 95% of them were concentrated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and
Balochistan.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa recorded the highest number of terrorist incidents in the country in 2024, with 295 attacks that also included five sectarian-related attacks. These attacks claimed 509 lives and left 517 others injured.

Compared to the previous year, the number of terrorist incidents in the province increased by 69%, while fatalities rose by 21%. This indicates that militants not only escalated the frequency of their attacks but also carried out more intense and high-impact attacks during the year under review.

Most of the terrorist activity in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was concentrated in six southern
districts—North and South Waziristan, Bannu, Tank, Lakki Marwat, and Dera Ismail
Khan—which collectively accounted for 171 attacks, or 58% of the total incidents in
the province.

Other significant hotspots included Bajaur, with 34 attacks largely attributed to the Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K), and the provincial capital, along with the neighbouring Khyber district, which together witnessed 36 attacks.

Overall, terrorist activity was reported in 22 districts across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in
2024. Security and law enforcement personnel, particularly from the army and police,
were the primary targets, accounting for over 68% of the total reported attacks in the
province.

Cross referencing the above attacks with most likely smuggling routes based on data provided by UNODC:

The above schematic is very important to provide a quick snapshot of the main transit and interdictions routes from cross-border smuggling routes - it is also the main route for movement of terrorists into Pakistan.

Borders are managed by "two nations" - Afghanistan as a state has the responsibility to manage her side of the border, a task her "government" has failed at multiple times as the officials inside Kabul do not recognise the Durand line nor the Pakistan/Afghanistan border.

Based on demands by Islamabad they are two main models to be examined here in examining any conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan:

• Scenario A: Strong Afghan action against TTP
• Scenario B: Afghanistan maintains the status quo

What would Scenario A look like: Afghan authorities move from public denials/limited measures to sustained, visible counter-TTP operations — arrests of senior TTP figures, disruption of logistics and training grounds, plus joint security steps or intelligence-sharing with Pakistan.
Likelihood based on Analysis from Brookings: Low-Moderate (Source: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-talibans-three-years-in-power-and-what-lies-ahead)


What would Scenario B look like: continued Afghan denials, limited or symbolic actions, constrained enforcement in border areas, and TTP continues to operate with some sanctuary/access to Afghan territory.
Likelihood based on historic monitoring and reporting: Moderate-High - Reasoning: current reporting and repeated cycles of accusation/limited cooperation point to this being the baseline trajectory. (Source Cited: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024...ns-ties-with-the-afghan-taliban-turned-frigid)

Second-order effects & risks:
Escalation: Pakistan may increase unilateral military actions (air or cross-border strikes), raising the risk of a sustained cross-border confrontation. (Source: https://warontherocks.com/2025/03/decoding-pakistans-2024-airstrikes-in-afghanistan)

Regional consequences: Increased instability may draw in China (protecting projects/ nationals), or see international pressure on Afghanistan; refugee flows or cross-border displacement could rise. (Source: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45122)

TTP consolidation: Continued safe haven enables TTP to recruit, plan larger attacks, and potentially coordinate with other militant groups, raising the long-term threat level. (Source: https://acleddata.com/report/battle-borderlands-tehreek-i-taliban-pakistan-challenges-states-control)

Escalation Trigger timeline:
0–3 months: Status quo continues; occasional big attacks in Pakistan draw loud diplomatic protests. Islamabad signals readiness for action; Kabul issues denials. (Baseline seen repeatedly through 2024–2025 reporting).
3–9 months: If external pressure + incentives rise (or a political decision in Kabul), limited cooperation or targeted Afghan actions may appear (Scenario A partial realization). Otherwise, continued tit-for-tat (Scenario B).
9–18 months: Path diverges: successful Afghan sustained action could reduce attacks and open security channels; failure or persistence of status quo increases risk of sustained Pakistani unilateral measures and regional friction.
^ We are here!

Key triggers for widening escalation:
1. A major inside-Pakistan attack with high civilian or foreign national casualties — raises pressure for drastic action.
2. A sudden policy pivot within the Taliban leadership
^ We are here!

The situation stands at scenario B.

Talis dont want to listen to anybody. They have shown presence inside India to send a message to Pakistan that we will not adhere to Pakistan's demands. and In return Pakistan vows to keep continuing strikes that the period of talks is over.

 

[Olympus81]

Advise to all parties to commit to a reconciliatory tone, use the parliament (however sham it may be) and engage all stakeholders across the isle to enact a strategy to tackle this menace.

Otherwise we are just playing at the hands of the enemy.

 

[Signalian]

@Signalian

----
Timeline and Geolocation
----
Timeline of Events:
9 Oct 2025 (~22:00 local Kabul time reported) — Explosions reported/heard in Kabul (Abdul Haq Square area; some mentions of Shar-e-Naw). Taliban spokesman says authorities are investigating; initial Taliban statements reported no casualties or major damage. (AP reporting.)

10 Oct 2025 — social & regional reporting — Multiple regional sites, local TV snippets and social platforms began circulating claims the Kabul explosions were Pakistani airstrikes and that TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud was killed. These claims were published on smaller/regional outlets and widely shared on social media but lacked independent verification from major wires.

-----
Verification:
Several regional and social platforms (Amu TV, Livemint coverage quoting regional reporting, various social posts and video channels) rapidly published claims that Noor Wali Mehsud was killed in the strike(s). These are claims — not corroborated by major international wire services.

What is verified:
Verified / well-sourced:

1. Explosions were widely reported/heard in Kabul on the night of 9–10 Oct 2025 and the Taliban said it was investigating. (AP)

What is uncertain/not-verified:
That Noor Wali Mehsud was killed in these events — numerous regional outlets and social posts claim this, but major international wires and official Pakistani/Taliban confirmations were not present or remained ambiguous in the reporting. (Amu TV, Livemint reporting; Wikipedia updated).

Noise / low-reliability indicators:
Rapid circulation of videos and posts on YouTube, Instagram, Facebook and other platforms claiming to show the strikes — many such clips are unverified, and earlier incidents have been repeatedly reused during previous flare-ups.

---
Geolocation:

[34.53306, 69.20113]

[Low to medium confidence]
Methodology:
1: Visual Clues: a plume of smoke/glow on the horizon at night
1. Landmarks: with a distinctive vertical minaret, the foreground appears to be a rooftop viewpoint with low parapet walls.
2. Terrain: Kabul Basin
3. Built Environment/Street Furniture: Electricity Pylons, street lights, traffic

Analysis: Based on the fixed location reference points the location of the strike in this video is Abdul Haq Square, Kabul.

Second I cross-referenced the second most popular image shared 3,000 times on X:

Geolocation: 34.53182, 69.20363

Methodology:
1: Visual Clues: Cross referencing fixed reference points in Image B sheds - semi paved roads and trees/vegetation
1. Landmarks: sheds with corrugated sheet rooftops
2. Terrain: Kabul Basin
3. Built Environment/Street Furniture: Electricity Pylons, street lights, traffic

Analysis: Based on the fixed location reference points the location of the strike in this image can be likely attributed to a walled compound in the Abdul Haq Square area of Kabul near Makroyan Road.

The damage seems to be from either Mark 84 or GBU-24 dropped by F-16s. These are 2000 lb weapons.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Talis dont want to listen to anybody. They have shown presence inside India to send a message to Pakistan that we will not adhere to Pakistan's demands. and In return Pakistan vows to keep continuing strikes that the period of talks is over.

Thus, they've signed on their own death warrant. Now, President Trump and the Pak Deep State have the same objective: elimination of the Taliban and remodeling Afganistan via balkanization, so that no single power again rises up from the Afgans. It's a time tested Imperialistic policy....

As for Bharat, they're as usual on the wrong side of the History at a given time and space.....

 

[Signalian]

Thus, they've signed on their own death warrant. Now, President Trump and the Pak Deep State have the same objective: elimination of the Taliban and remodeling Afganistan via balksnization, so that no single power again rises up from the Adghans. It's a time tested Imperialistic policy....

As for Bharat, they're as usual on the wrong side of the History at a given time and space.....

Maybe regime change in Afghanistan