There is a big difference between stationing forces at the border and occupying another country . The TTA may not have been willing to crack down on the TTP and start a war with them, but they were not directly attacking Pakistan until they were attacked first. The only options are either to reach some sort of truce or to completely obliterate them because they are willing to fight a forever war with any foreign power occupying Afghan lands.
@Owaiz Agreed. This is the complexity of the situation. Its not as black and white as many members here seem to believe. The TTA is ruling the country....this is a very different state to be in compared to when you are just a guerilla force because its a single minded objective then. Now, they have to maintain alliances, ensure they are not stabbed in the back, civil war does not start, economy, foreign relations etc. become centrepoint and most of these things need to be done carefully. Their challenge with TTP is that those people are from their very households and not some distant invader against whom they would all rally up. Unfortunately, they are unwilling to get a handle on the situation and Pakistan being quiet may have sent a message that "its ok". But now, after some intense fighting and losses on their side, they are being forced to re-evaluate whether the status quo has changed such that going after TTP would make more sense.
As long as Pakistan is not an invader, there is scope for diplomacy no matter how many on this forum may think otherwise. Eventually, military action stops and diplomacy takes over or vice versa. This is how world politics is run.
@Aggregate sb
people here were cheering, Indians were against Taliban. Now Indians are cheering for Taliban, Pakistanis are against Taliban. You can then go equally ask Indian members why they were upset then, but cheering now ?
Indeed, you are correct. The Q is as applicable for Indians as it is for Pakistanis (both in PDF and in real life). The only difference is that Afghanis (Talib or otherwise) are next door neighbours to PAK but not to IND. The price that Pakistanis will pay for getting their Afghan policy wrong will always be higher than the price that Indians will pay.
And indeed as
@That_Guy sb says there were lot of wise Pakistani posters on (the old) PDF who questioned the cheering for Talibs.
Regards
Indians, unfortunately, just anti-Pakistan. They will take any avenue to hurt the country. Even if Pakistan were to meet every single Indian demand to normalise relations, they will find another reason not to. Their internal politics ultimately runs on having a dysfunctional relationship with Paksitan and conventiently shifting blame for domestic challenges onto Pakistan.
That is not to say that the Afghan policy that Pakistan had is not backfiring but rather it has come into a new state where both sides now need to find a way to work together under very different circumstances.
Things will never be the same again. Pakistan and the Taliban are pretty much enemies now.
Time to move them aside and forge strong ties with the other ethnicities. The whole strategic depth stuff was built on thin ice, especially since many of them had claims beyond the Durrand Line.
@Waz Before, Pakistan and Taliban/Mujahideen had simple objectives and were mostly military in nature. That is why the Pak army was able to get along since it was their area of expertise. But the moment the Talibs had to govern that is when they now realise that they also need the pen rather than the gun. In that state, they now have to look after their own interests whichis understandable. The issue at hand is that Pakistan and Afghanistan interests are clashing and the latter is unwilling to exert control to fix the issue on their end. The ceasefire is now an opportunity to fix that diplomatically.
No one can remain enemies forever if they want to progress. India Pakistan are a fantastic case study for Afghanistan if they want to go down that route especially when they are land locked and completely dependent on Pakistan and Iran for imports and exports.
This forum is full of teenagers braying for blood. All they do is demand killing everyone, including men, woman and children. I find it quite sickening. Hopefully, the people who make decisions are adults.
@Tamerlane That is what I am observing some very childish people are on this forum. Even if you are not a military person at least have decency to try and understand the situation and come with some pragmatic outcomes. Military operations and diplomacy always goes hand in hand. Carrot and stick is how countries deal with each other. Aghanistan got far too many carrots from Pakistan. this time around, the stick came out to knock sense into them which I believe will happen sooner than later.
Many of us, including me, have been proven wrong. I thought the Afghan Taliban of August 2021 MUST have learned some lessons from the previous 20 years of pounding by the Americans. The Afghan Taliban even tried to say then that they are no longer the same people and that was so believable--you know, 20 years of global connectivity and younger people then. They presented a few English speaking spokesmen. They indeed do good on establishing the 'peace' in Afghanistan, and on removing the poppy cultivation, reducing corruption, etc etc.
But they were too dumb to realize their path to power and prosperity runs through Pakistan and not through some misguided ideological support to a fringe group like the Pakistani Taliban.
@Meengla Remember, we propped up the Taliban against other groups and they were victorious because of it of it. Pakistan can easily support another group if agrees to do its bidding and with the right amount of support would decimate the TTA and its stooges. As I mentioned above, the TTA are finding it hard to govern becuase this is a very different ball game then when you are only mlitarily involved and fully focused on destruction...they are not used to construction.
As for being stupid, they are not, they have simply concluded it is better to not disturb the local balance of power and dealing with Pakistan would be an easier matter. To keep Pakistan in check and to continue with their role of the governing party, they went to India where they were keen to be recognised and get more for their country without too many string attached. Pakistan has quite a few strings attached for Afghans to live and in particular of TTA dismantling TTP which is a notion for civil war. So, in all of this, Pakistan concluded that it now had to be the meaner party so that this calculus changes and I think it has and we should see some diplomatic breakthrough soon. The TTA now has to choose a fight with Pakistan vs a fight with TTP (which Pakistan will actually support). But this means that they will have to hit their own brothers and kill them which is not easy. So, lets see how this goes, I would not want to be in TTA's boots right now...the choices are fairly tough.
GD Bakshi is back with his wailing
View attachment 154184
I think there is spelling mistake here. The label rather than reading "CONSTUTION CLUB" sould read "CONSTIPATION CLUB".
There will not be a full-fledged war. Pakistani government and our security establishment know they don't want one. The idea is no different than Turkey's attempts to manage the Kurdish problem through attacks in Iraq and Syria.
Pakistan is trying to manage a terrorism problem emanating from Afghanistan. It is for Afghans to think first and foremost if their support for TTP/BLA is worth a big confrontation with Pakistan.
Both countries have plenty of other problems to solve instead of fighting, but Pakistanis cannot sit around silently while hundreds of our citizens are being murdered as if lambs at the slaughterhouse (every year since 2022, we have lost over a thousand ppl per annum in these attacks). No country in the world has let that kind of murderous mayhem go.
Pakistan has been doing nothing but talking with over 50 delegations (govt, jirgas, civil society) sent to Afg in the past 3-4 years pleading for Taliban to stop the TTP from operating. No go.
@Blain2 100%. This is the issue. The TTA, in the prior status quo, had calculated that not taking action against TTP/BLA etc is safer for them because Pakistan is not the enemy. Quite honestly, the TTA would not be able to win the TTP and would be gravely weakened not to mention the close family ties that prevent them from doing so. Therefore, the Pakistani military option now presents a new situation to TTA i.e. either they take action against TTP or together they bite the dust while ISI props up another candidate (looking at you NRF) to be the friendly Afghan government to Pakistan. Truth is that no matter which group you get, at some point there will be a misalignment with Pakistani interests. The question is how misaligned are those interests that eventually warrants a military clash.
In our current situation, India on one side, Afghanistan on other and an active war, I think army is doing equally fine in this department ... because, I have followed so many 'revolutions' in Middle East countries, the one mistake they all made, was to try to absolutely block the 'anti-state narrative' suddenly, which the enemy always deceptively piggybacks on a genuine issue (mostly 'corruption' in almost all cases as its the most relatable and does not need much concreate proofs), which then boils up. In our case the Army has maintained a very fine balance of halting the narrative to controlled levels since 2023, while suppressing the occasional violence to the point that it does not work anymore now.
I have seen and read so much material on this and the only accepted way that most experts recommend to control this scenario is to control the flow of narrative very carefully (block unblock social Media, allow Youtubers to leave the country then ban them, etc, etc, and other stuff) so people kep getting the daily fix until they get frustrated and tired of it all. Or get on with their lives and stop caring. In the end the most dedicated remain, but nobody cares at that point.
Suddenly blocking propagandas like these lead to bad consequences and things are left cemented into people's brains. This might seem counterintuitive, one would think that if it is allowed to continue, it will cement more, but in these most experts say that you need to wane off the attraction of the 'mole' .... and there is no better way to do it than the to lead people to say 'yeh tou bolta he rehta hey'. Just like a rehab, people have to be naturally allowed to get off the bandwagon, until there is very little impact of the 5th Gen warfare left out and people stop being enemies of their own state.
Humans can only have only so much of an attention span, after all. I think our army is doing pretty well in all depts, geo strategically too, exemplary performance Alhamdulillah and from all that I have learned, (yes it might get frustrating) but they are really managing the 5th Gen war very prudently, exactly as its ought to be managed. If you look into it, there are a lot of indicators that the spell has broken greatly and continues to do so, things are definitely not the same as 2022.
I dont think the army or airforce was involved at all in this. It is not a national security issue but a insurgency issue. Throughout, the reports seem to suggest that CAF and FC are the only ones fighting them and the scale and scope of the fight clearly suggests that. Old tanks, cheap munitions drones, basic artillery etc. are the hallmarks that FC and CAF are in use rather than the regulars. This is smart as it is has the potential to keep this ongoing and to keep it below the threshold of actual war where PAF, PN, and PA would be using far bigger assets against Afghanistan.
Our paramilitaries are more than sufficient for them. This is also the reason why we are not holding posts or taking over territory because it is beyond the mandate of the paramlitiaries and this is the right strategy. The Afghans may have assessed that taking on FC would have a destabilising effect but Pakistan has a very large paramliitary wing that alone would be able to keep this going for many many weeks and months.
This means our military capability vis a vis India is not diluted at all.