Michael
Think Tank Analyst
- Jan 5, 2024
- 498
- 783
- Country of Origin
- Country of Residence
Based on the publicly available information:The research on the J20 and FC31 was initiated simultaneously. Due to the J20 winning the competition and receiving funding support from the PLA, its research progressed quickly. The FC31 failed in the competition, and in order not to abandon the aircraft, the SAC raised funds independently to continue its development, but it is clear that it cannot match the J20's development speed.I think you totally misunderstood my post … I never said, there will only be one prototype - in fact if you look at all other comparable Chinese fighter projects, there have been at least 6 or more - the point is only, at the moment we have at best four J-35 and only one J-31 prototype confirmed by now. As such I full agree with you there will be more until it receives its certification, but to assume there are already more J-31 prototypes - even more so with the first one flying only since last year is a claims for which we we have no proof.
In essence to claim there are already more now based on nothing and then to conclude it is ready for service in Pakistan soon can only be wrong!
I have friends, who are monitoring SAC almost 24/7 and there not more prototypes known, which would suggest more than those known already and lesser that LRIP was already initiated.
Hey, even the flight test phase from the first prototype to service entry of the J-20 was exceptionally short (less than 7 years), so we should give the J-35 and even more so the J-31 with being 2 years later at least a similar period of testing which would still be quick and result in a service realistically by around 2028, but surely not in late 2025 in Pakistan .
According to PLA practice, when new technology is first applied, it undergoes many, many tests, so the initial phase is always very slow. Once these technologies are corrected and confirmed, large-scale rapid production begins and is transplanted to similar equipment.
The PLA Navy's 052 series destroyers were initially built very slowly with a few different small models. By the time of the 052D type, the technology had matured, and large-scale production began. By the time of the 055 type, the first batch directly included 8 ships.
The J10A had a certain scale of production. With the J10B, which used many new technologies, the production scale was only in the dozens. With the J10C, large-scale production began.
Such examples can be easily found in the development of PLA military equipment. Many pieces of equipment are only known to the public after they have already been in service. For example, the carrier-based hypersonic anti-ship missile YJ21 was first known to exist through live-fire videos on the 055 destroyer.
The current J31 incorporates many mature technologies from the J20. It is fully capable of proceeding to large-scale production. The biggest obstacle is the WS19 engine. Is this engine reliable? Can the factory produce it on a large scale? Whether SAC is willing to shift its factory capacity to the J31 depends on order demand.
I have some understanding of the 624 Research Institute. Judging from the perspective of today’s Chinese, their work efficiency is quite low. This has led to a slower progress for the WS19. I suppose it might be due to insufficient funding from AECC!
If the PAF orders dozens of J31s and has a higher delivery priority than the PLAAF, it is possible that the PAF could receive the first batch of J31s by the end of next year. Of course, this is just my guess. It mainly depends on the results of negotiations between the PAF, SAC, and PLAAF.
Last edited: