Arab Gulf states… a strategic victory without war

[_Arabia_]

GCC staged and encouraged the Iran war for decades, believing it would be like all other conflicts that it had partnered with the West in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Palestine etc in that the violence would all be abroad and never touch them.

In pursuit of this goal to use Israel/America to further the GCC aim of neutering Iran and establishing themselves as regionally dominant, not only were military bases and airspace provided but also intelligence, radar information and defending US / Israel from Iranian retaliation.

This made the GCC legitimate targets themselves and when Iran brought the war home, hitting US bases and the GCC's oil/gas golden goose, immediately the GCC backed off.

The utter stupidity of pampered GCC statelets has been globally exposed in this war and it is Iran that emerges as the regional hegemon.

With sanctions removed watch as Iran / Turkey rightfully emerge as the two strongest regional economies in the next 20 years.

I know that you are a blind fanboy of the Iranian regime, albeit based in the US of all places, so I don't expect any objectivism from you.

However you are making quite a lot of completely unfounded claims.

KSA never called for the removal of the Iranian regime. KSA was only ever focused on Iranian regime meddling in the Arab world (our own backyard and present and historical sphere of influence) and support for anti-KSA proxies and anti-Arab state actor proxies. No need to mention which here.

Other than that it suited KSA/GCC perfectly fine that Iran was managed and run by a bunch of incompetent Mullah's who after almost 50 years of rule have very little other than missiles to show for and an economy almost 2 times smaller than tiny UAE.

There is a reason why you have tons of economic Iranian refugees in GCC doing all kind of manual and at times low key jobs and other jobs here (that I will not mention) out of economic desperation while you have not a single GCC Arab that works and lives in Iran out of economic necessity.

Fact of the matter is that Iran was/is greatly weakened while KSA is left untouched and much of the GCC.

Yes, Iran had no sanctions for decades and still was nowhere near the combined economic output of GCC. Which they likely never will have simply due to demographics and the GCC having a 10 times larger economy today alone. As well as sovereign wealth funds (today 2026) worth 7 trillion USD which by the time, Iran ever sees any semblance of economic growth, will be 2-3 times larger if that can do it going by the rate of stock (global) growth etc.

Also we are Arabs not "GCCians - whatever that is" so the comparison should be with the entire Arab world and here, quite frankly, Iran is an ant in every sphere. Already is compared to the GCC.

Turkiye has no relation with Iran at all and is hardly a part of the region to begin with (they are their own region) and Arabs are the 3rd largest ethnic group in Turkiye after Turks and Kurds and the GCC and Arab world have far closer economic, political and current ties (historical as well) than Turkieye and Iran has with each other. Not to mention a much longer border.

You are too desperate to somehow proclaim a further weakened Iran as some kind of imaginary winner.

Outside of logistical support, KSA/GCC did not participate in this conflict/war (aerial campaign) other than logistical support as I already mentioned and tit for fat attacks on Iran (described in Western media in detail and admitted by Trump and others already). So there was no KSA/GCC-Iran war - only in your head, I am afraid.

And I have news for you, there will likely never be any because we both value our oil and gas infrastructure too much and we know that due to geography and current technology, any serious conflict will just result in mutual destruction in this part. Neither party is capable of invading the other with ground troops either so there is that too. Nor any direct land border.

Lastly, a prosperous and sane Iran would be a potentially huge benefit for KSA and the GCC next door (see France-Germany relation today) and as I wrote 1 million times already, there have been ancient millennia old trade ties between Arabia and Iran - that continue to this day - there is a reason why Iran used the GCC (UAE and Qatar) as a trad hub and sanctions busting hub. Not next door Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Iraq etc. Same reason why 100.000's of poor Iranians (Persians, Iranian Arabs, Iranian Baloch, Lurs etc.) have been migrating and settling and intermarrying with locals in Eastern Arabia for centuries. Same thing the other way around - hence the million big Iranian Arab community.
Lastly most Arabs do not think about Iran at all. We would have no problem for them if not for their regime behavior since 1979. Even Iranians admit it themselves.

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Iranians , now , want to take shelter under the ummah umbrella...look like they will get the shelter...lo and behold , Iranian FM called the Kuwaiti counter part today and expressed the desire for regional solidarity.

They always wanted that publicly - hiding under the cover of Islamic solidarity and the "Islamic" Revolution in 1979. In reality it was a fairly clever tactic to use the region's religiosity among a certain sect, to create obedient proxies that you could/can use as pawns on a chess board to expand your regional influence etc. Everything else is rhetoric.

Whatever you hear is just hot air. They are just coming to terms with the fact that their regional project, that they have been working on for almost 50 years, is crashing down for all to see.

Now if that will force the new regime to act more sane - I am all for it. As I said, I have no animosity towards non-hostile Iranians. As I wrote before in this thread, we have influenced them tremendously historically (pre-Islam and during the Islamic era) and there are much shared in common not to mention people to people relations and intermarriages across both party lines.

KSA, UAE might be the outliner in the GCC nowadays, have no appetite for any proxy wars or any focus on that nowadays. The priority is economic growth, diversification, industrialization etc.

But only time will tell what is going to occur. KSA needs to prepare for every scenario and the leadership needs to examine all options and revaluate all relationships depending on what occurs.

 

[SteppeWolff]

Can mods control this Baghdad Bob guy? Man's sharing everything from environmental restoration in KSA to ancient history

 

[_Arabia_]

Can mods control this Baghdad Bob guy? Man's sharing everything from environmental restoration in KSA to ancient history

Has Tehran Bob destroyed the evil Arabs yet let alone the Israelis and the US, small and big satan or whatever they are called? Or is the same Tehran Bob now negotiating their surrender to the US and the formal prohibition of ever buying a Ferrari (nukes), even with a credit loan? Something that Tehran Bob has been trying and working towards very hard for almost 50 years - to buy that elusive Ferrari - so far with no success despite all the countless sacrifices.

Same Tehran Bob has already destroyed a lot of old cars (failed/destroyed proxies/regimes) - latest of which was a Russian Lada (Al-Assad regime).

Or is Tehran Bob shouting victory from a demolished house with hardly any working utensils, enormous debt, a worthless credit (currency), high-ranking family members killed (Iranian leadership), immeasurable damage to the garden (300 + billion in infrastructural loses etc.)?

That and a starving cat (Iranian people) that is getting desperate and ready to bite.

Last time it went berserk (the cat that is), it was neutered (Iranian regime killing 10.000's of their own people back in January 2026) but it gave the owner a few scratches and it is still angry and planning its revenge.

We will see. Episode 2 likely to follow within 2 months or some time in the future.

 

[VCheng]

Was it dishonest by Iran to aid proxies that directly attacked KSA such as the Houthis.

Iran did what it thought it must do to serve their national interests, plain and simple. How well that worked is debatable, however.

Why shouldn't they provide material support?

Of course they should, since they thought it served their own respective national interests.

Where all the GCC opposed the war and the use of their territories to attack Iran..

Diplomatic words cannot cover actual actions.

Iranians , now , want to take shelter under the ummah umbrella...look like they will get the shelter...lo and behold , Iranian FM called the Kuwaiti counter part today and expressed the desire for regional solidarity.

More diplomatic platitudes.

It is going to be quite amusing to see when the reality sets slowly within the GCC.

Sure, first let us see what reality takes shape in the next 60 days.

 

[hasssanali8998]

ummah umbrella

"ummah umbrella"
lmfao .

 

[hasssanali8998]

Can mods control this Baghdad Bob guy? Man's sharing everything from environmental restoration in KSA to ancient history

try to tell him ksa was hit by iran and see how he reacts
its so fun lmao

 

[_Arabia_]

try to tell him ksa was hit by iran and see how he reacts
its so fun lmao

Nothing of note was ever targeted in KSA other than 1 drone hitting 1 building in the US embassy in Riyadh (not sure who launched it - could have been the Houthis for all we know, UAE or whatever as some claimed - they have apparently copied the Shaheed drone). Other than that US military hardware (1-2) was targeted in the Prince Sultan Air Base. That and the only drone attack on a small part of 1 oil and gas field in KSA which killed the only Saudi Arabian casualty in the war so far (1 petroleum engineer).

In return KSA attacked Iran a few times as well as a tit for tat.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-launched-covert-attacks-iran-regional-war-widened-sources-2026-05-12/

I can live with that seeing that KSA was the main logistical hub for the US and without KSA there would be no aerial bombardments of Iran.

Karma is real often. As I wrote earlier, this is perfectly fine with me and can be seen as payback for Iranian support for Houthis and other proxies in our backyard and sphere of influence (Arab world).

Same way I have no problem with KSA openly and proudly supporting Iraq against the Iranian regime.

BTW, did Iran not kill more Pakistanis, by launching that missile attack on Pakistan, than they have ever attacked and killed any Saudi Arabians directly? Maybe you supported this attack but it is quite telling. For all the supposed rivalry since 1979, there is very little to show for and no direct wars or conflicts.

Not even this year. Quite telling but I already gave the reasons for that.

Iran did what it thought it must do to serve their national interests, plain and simple. How well that worked is debatable, however.

Sure. Which is also why I wrote that I have no problem with what KSA did. As for long-term conclusions, as I also wrote, I would prefer to wait for that. But I know for a fact in whose shoes I would prefer to be in.

Anyway I will have to leave this forum for some time due to personal obligations.

 

[Pakistan First]

Somehow the "geniuses" on this forum, consider it some kind of achievement to launch a few missiles and drones (most of which were intercepted) at tiny GCC states and mostly empty hotels, empty US bases or even civilian areas. Imagine KSA launching drones and ballistic missiles at Eritrea or even Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and UAE and hailing this as some kind of tactical genius.

Several american media outlets have acknowledged the damage done by Iranian strikes on US bases across the region. The media outlets like CNN, Reuters etc. Those reports acknowledged with satellite imagery the precision of Iranian strikes. They satellite imagery showed the damage done to radars, sensors and other critical infrastructure.

Modern warfare is all about attack vectors. You can't dismiss the value of stand off munitions. US has tomahawk cruise missiles, JASSMs and others. Israelis have Lora and other weapons, Iranians have their own BMs and drones. The ballistic missiles are actually rocket science. They go beyond atmosphere, travel in space, re-enter and hit the spot with precision. It needs extreme calculations. Ofcourse Intercepting missiles is even much more harder, its like hitting a bullet with a bullet. That tech is only available to handful of countries who can do that on their own. But again on Ballistic missiles development, only a handful of countries in islamic world actually do that. Overall Pakistan is a leader in indigenous strike and offensive capabilities by far without any comparison whatsoever, the massive nuclear weapon program with both tactical and strategic warheads, whole range of BMs, MiRVs (several independent re-entry warheads capable missiles), submarine launched medium range missiles, airborne long range strike weapons and all that is its own indigenous tech. Then Turkey and then Iran which have its own capabilities in strike weapons at a decent ranges. No GCC / arab country comes close except KSA, Egypt.

Also Israelis and americans are not fools as you think they were who purposely did this war only to lose. According to their calculations their relentless bombings will led to Iran giving up / surrender. But you have to give atleast this much credit to Iran that they never thought about surrendering or giving up even when their leaders were being killed one by one. Suppose if same US war would be against any powerful arab country like Egypt or KSA. Which arab country can show that much resilience? Egypt, KSA ? imagine if leadership is gone, how well Egypt or KSA would perform against relentless air campaign of US military might? EAF and Royal saudi airforce will be gone in first 24 hrs. No other option but to bow down against US demands. I hate to say that but even Pakistan would not have performed as Iran did. We might evaporate US carrier group with a single tactical nuke as a last resort, but that would bring armagedon right back into our cities. So give Iran a credit where its due. They showed extreme resilience, a command structure that is immune to decapitation, and massive number of missiles.

The Iranian ability to hit back everytime in face of total air domination is miraculous. You know when americans control the skies, yet you are able to launch missile strikes each time. Western analysts were wondering how the hell they are able to do that and if Iran would ever run out of missiles. The initial days of war all we were hearing from US officials and western analysts was unconditional surrender of Iran as the condition to end war. No ballistic missiles, no drones, no proxies. Here we are after 2 months and now nobody is even thinking to talk like that. Trump is down to boasting reopening of strait (which was already open before war lol). So .... anyways, i see you dislike Iran and has a bias against them. They are not my favorites either. But I give credit where its due, even if its enemy. They got weaknesses but they got strengths too. Facts and unbias approach is always best. I also tell to Iranians who think they are more advance in missiles then NK or at par with modern militaries that they are not. Advance technology is not their strength. Their strength is that they play within their own rules. using the geography (strait of hormuz) as pressure / bargaining tactic, Use of proxies, hardened military command structure, impressive number of missile bases and missiles. It does not make them a global military power but it surely makes them a country very difficult to defeat. Its acutally smart. Iran's enemies are US and Israel. Iran knows they cannot beat it with traditional force structure like an airforce, navy etc. Americans will shoot down their planes and ships in the first day. So they don't even play in their game where americans have total domination. That is how they survived and came out as victor in this conflict. All they had to do was survive to win, they did that on top they hit US bases/ israel and blocked strait. US got tired and won't waste anymore ammo to brute force the strait to be opened. Iranians knew exactly that. So I give Iranians the credit. Smart planning and execution.

 

[_Arabia_]

Several american media outlets have acknowledged the damage done by Iranian strikes on US bases across the region. The media outlets like CNN, Reuters etc. Those reports acknowledged with satellite imagery the precision of Iranian strikes. They satellite imagery showed the damage done to radars, sensors and other critical infrastructure.

Modern warfare is all about attack vectors. You can't dismiss the value of stand off munitions. US has tomahawk cruise missiles, JASSMs and others. Israelis have Lora and other weapons, Iranians have their own BMs and drones. The ballistic missiles are actually rocket science. They go beyond atmosphere, travel in space, re-enter and hit the spot with precision. It needs extreme calculations. Ofcourse Intercepting missiles is even much more harder, its like hitting a bullet with a bullet. That tech is only available to handful of countries who can do that on their own. But again on Ballistic missiles development, only a handful of countries in islamic world actually do that. Overall Pakistan is a leader in indigenous strike and offensive capabilities by far without any comparison whatsoever, the massive nuclear weapon program with both tactical and strategic warheads, whole range of BMs, MiRVs (several independent re-entry warheads capable missiles), submarine launched medium range missiles, airborne long range strike weapons and all that is its own indigenous tech. Then Turkey and then Iran which have its own capabilities in strike weapons at a decent ranges. No GCC / arab country comes close except KSA, Egypt.

Also Israelis and americans are not fools as you think they were who purposely did this war only to lose. According to their calculations their relentless bombings will led to Iran giving up / surrender. But you have to give atleast this much credit to Iran that they never thought about surrendering or giving up even when their leaders were being killed one by one. Suppose if same US war would be against any powerful arab country like Egypt or KSA. Which arab country can show that much resilience? Egypt, KSA ? imagine if leadership is gone, how well Egypt or KSA would perform against relentless air campaign of US military might? EAF and Royal saudi airforce will be gone in first 24 hrs. No other option but to bow down against US demands. I hate to say that but even Pakistan would not have performed as Iran did. We might evaporate US carrier group with a single tactical nuke as a last resort, but that would bring armagedon right back into our cities. So give Iran a credit where its due. They showed extreme resilience, a command structure that is immune to decapitation, and massive number of missiles.

The Iranian ability to hit back everytime in face of total air domination is miraculous. You know when americans control the skies, yet you are able to launch missile strikes each time. Western analysts were wondering how the hell they are able to do that and if Iran would ever run out of missiles. The initial days of war all we were hearing from US officials and western analysts was unconditional surrender of Iran as the condition to end war. No ballistic missiles, no drones, no proxies. Here we are after 2 months and now nobody is even thinking to talk like that. Trump is down to boasting reopening of strait (which was already open before war lol). So .... anyways, i see you dislike Iran and has a bias against them. They are not my favorites either. But I give credit where its due, even if its enemy. They got weaknesses but they got strengths too. Facts and unbias approach is always best. I also tell to Iranians who think they are more advance in missiles then NK or at par with modern militaries that they are not. Advance technology is not their strength. Their strength is that they play within their own rules. using the geography (strait of hormuz) as pressure / bargaining tactic, Use of proxies, hardened military command structure, impressive number of missile bases and missiles. It does not make them a global military power but it surely makes them a country very difficult to defeat. Its acutally smart. Iran's enemies are US and Israel. Iran knows they cannot beat it with traditional force structure like an airforce, navy etc. Americans will shoot down their planes and ships in the first day. So they don't even play in their game where americans have total domination. That is how they survived and came out as victor in this conflict. All they had to do was survive to win, they did that on top they hit US bases/ israel and blocked strait. US got tired and won't waste anymore ammo to brute force the strait to be opened. Iranians knew exactly that. So I give Iranians the credit. Smart planning and execution.

Still got some time left. Long post, respect for that and for making an effort, but I will try to make a short reply here.

It is hardly a surprise that drones and ballistic missiles can do some damage (nothing groundbreaking) on statuary targets in particular if the targets are this close to Iran.

You and I both know that Iran received support from Russia and China (satellite imagery) and probably much other help. Why would they not - if their main rival is the US? Not out of love for Iran but simple geopolitical interests.

Iranian missiles, which is their only competitive offensive weapon (always said that) is hardly some achievement when you had almost 50 years to focus on that branch. Look at the appalling performance of the Iranian navy and Air Force. Both almost non-existent to begin with.

Look much what Iran has done, rag-tag militias like Houthis also did. Same Houthis also. resisted for weeks, in a much smaller geographical area than Iran, US and Israeli onslaught on them. You cannot win wars solely by air campaigns.

Look, Russian Air Force and Syrian Air Force could not defeat Syrian peasants armed with AK-47 and ZERO air defenses for years on end. You need boots on the ground - unless the local population rises up which they never tend to do if outsiders are attacking your country. Hardly anything unique to Iran or groundbreaking either.

The idea that Israel and the US wanted regime change - I do not believe that for one second. They wanted a weakened Iran that would not gain nuclear weapons and they seem to have achieved that.

What interests would Israel have in having a potentially much stronger Iran as a regional competitor that is open to the world and has normal relations with the Arab world, West etc.?

Same way that Israel was never interested in removing Al-Assad. Israel only cares about weakened nation states - they don't care who rules. They will create a narrative regardless of sect. You have seen the playbook already for the past many decades. They are already talking about some imaginary "Sunni Axis" composed of KSA, Pakistan, Turkiye and others.

Iraq was bombed as fiercely back in 1990-1991 (First Gulf War) and Iraq/Saddam Hussein did not collapse. They only collapsed 12 years after, after 12 years of massive sanctions (much worse than the Iranian sanctions) and after almost 1 million US and allies (boots on the ground).

No idea why anyone thought that the Iranian regime would collapse due to an aerial campaign that was mostly limited to Tehran, South Iran and Western Iran. Barely any of East Iran was touched for instance as well as much of the center from what I recall.

And let us be real, this is far from over yet and we don't even know the details of this agreement. I highly doubt that Iran will gain much from this agreement on paper. There will be no permanent control of any straits, no nukes (most likely) etc. Them being allowed to export oil and gas already occurred previously under Trump. So I can't exactly see that as any kind of victory.

If anything, I could see the US take advantage of Iran to gain an economic foothold within Iran and take advantage of it under the disguise of helping rebuild it.

Anyway, we will see.

As for other states in the region, I don't think that there is any leadership in the Muslim world who wants any confrontations with the US, if they can avoid it. So no reason to talk about scenarios that are unlikely to occur. Same. way that I doubt that the Pakistani leadership has drawn up battle plans for a potential war against the US.

 

[The SC]

Several american media outlets have acknowledged the damage done by Iranian strikes on US bases across the region. The media outlets like CNN, Reuters etc. Those reports acknowledged with satellite imagery the precision of Iranian strikes. They satellite imagery showed the damage done to radars, sensors and other critical infrastructure.

Modern warfare is all about attack vectors. You can't dismiss the value of stand off munitions. US has tomahawk cruise missiles, JASSMs and others. Israelis have Lora and other weapons, Iranians have their own BMs and drones. The ballistic missiles are actually rocket science. They go beyond atmosphere, travel in space, re-enter and hit the spot with precision. It needs extreme calculations. Ofcourse Intercepting missiles is even much more harder, its like hitting a bullet with a bullet. That tech is only available to handful of countries who can do that on their own. But again on Ballistic missiles development, only a handful of countries in islamic world actually do that. Overall Pakistan is a leader in indigenous strike and offensive capabilities by far without any comparison whatsoever, the massive nuclear weapon program with both tactical and strategic warheads, whole range of BMs, MiRVs (several independent re-entry warheads capable missiles), submarine launched medium range missiles, airborne long range strike weapons and all that is its own indigenous tech. Then Turkey and then Iran which have its own capabilities in strike weapons at a decent ranges. No GCC / arab country comes close except KSA, Egypt.

Also Israelis and americans are not fools as you think they were who purposely did this war only to lose. According to their calculations their relentless bombings will led to Iran giving up / surrender. But you have to give atleast this much credit to Iran that they never thought about surrendering or giving up even when their leaders were being killed one by one. Suppose if same US war would be against any powerful arab country like Egypt or KSA. Which arab country can show that much resilience? Egypt, KSA ? imagine if leadership is gone, how well Egypt or KSA would perform against relentless air campaign of US military might? EAF and Royal saudi airforce will be gone in first 24 hrs. No other option but to bow down against US demands. I hate to say that but even Pakistan would not have performed as Iran did. We might evaporate US carrier group with a single tactical nuke as a last resort, but that would bring armagedon right back into our cities. So give Iran a credit where its due. They showed extreme resilience, a command structure that is immune to decapitation, and massive number of missiles.

The Iranian ability to hit back everytime in face of total air domination is miraculous. You know when americans control the skies, yet you are able to launch missile strikes each time. Western analysts were wondering how the hell they are able to do that and if Iran would ever run out of missiles. The initial days of war all we were hearing from US officials and western analysts was unconditional surrender of Iran as the condition to end war. No ballistic missiles, no drones, no proxies. Here we are after 2 months and now nobody is even thinking to talk like that. Trump is down to boasting reopening of strait (which was already open before war lol). So .... anyways, i see you dislike Iran and has a bias against them. They are not my favorites either. But I give credit where its due, even if its enemy. They got weaknesses but they got strengths too. Facts and unbias approach is always best. I also tell to Iranians who think they are more advance in missiles then NK or at par with modern militaries that they are not. Advance technology is not their strength. Their strength is that they play within their own rules. using the geography (strait of hormuz) as pressure / bargaining tactic, Use of proxies, hardened military command structure, impressive number of missile bases and missiles. It does not make them a global military power but it surely makes them a country very difficult to defeat. Its acutally smart. Iran's enemies are US and Israel. Iran knows they cannot beat it with traditional force structure like an airforce, navy etc. Americans will shoot down their planes and ships in the first day. So they don't even play in their game where americans have total domination. That is how they survived and came out as victor in this conflict. All they had to do was survive to win, they did that on top they hit US bases/ israel and blocked strait. US got tired and won't waste anymore ammo to brute force the strait to be opened. Iranians knew exactly that. So I give Iranians the credit. Smart planning and execution.

Iran ..my friend, has spent the last 50 years preparing for this war..(an attack by the US and Israel)

 

[Watandar]

Yes of course..you just forgot to say that was since the Persian empire.. but what you forgot is how they were visiting each other almost daily with high delegations coordinating the future of the gulf region before this war that was a purely Isreli-American war on Iran..

Those visit by GCC to Iran right before the war was part of their strategic deception. GCC-Israel-US went in for the kill a second time on Iran, their first attempt was via Saddam in the 1980.

Perhaps GCC will change their behavior now as Iran pierced their luxurious bubble and made them taste the wars they have been exporting to the rest of the region.

 

[The SC]

Those visit by GCC to Iran right before the war was part of their strategic deception. GCC-Israel-US went in for the kill a second time on Iran, their first attempt was via Saddam in the 1980.

Perhaps GCC will change their behavior now as Iran pierced their luxurious bubble and made them taste the wars they have been exporting to the rest of the region.

Why you skipped the visits by Iran to the GCC.. they were much more visits..was that an Iranian strategic deception too?

 

[Watandar]

Why you skipped the visits by Iran to the GCC.. they were much more visits..s that an Iranian strategic deception too?

No, it was Iranians being fooled by cunning GCC diplomats.

 

[The SC]

No, it was Iranians being fooled by cunning GCC diplomats.

Not really..it was sponsored by China..

 

[The SC]

Sovereign investments in Gulf states have not slowed amid the Iran war

The war with Iran had little or no impact on the investment appetite of Gulf sovereign wealth funds, as most capital coming from sovereign investors in hydrocarbon-rich Gulf states continued to flow into developed market assets during the second quarter of the year.

According to a June report by Global SWF, most government funds in the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries, which manage total assets of about $5.7 trillion, maintained their usual quarterly investment pace.

The continued flow of investments contradicted the expectations of markets and analysts, who expected a tightening in sovereign spending as a result of the economic uncertainty associated with the war.

The institution said that these funds “have not shown any signs of slowing down so far, but rather achieved a stronger average investment pace during the past quarter compared to the average of the five years prior to the outbreak of the war.”

The report indicated that four of the five largest sovereign investors in the region, namely: Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Mubadala Investment, and Al Emad in the UAE, in addition to the Public Investment Fund in Saudi Arabia, continued to maintain the high investment levels they recorded during the past five years.

The Qatar Investment Authority was the only exception, as the pace of its investments declined by about two billion dollars per quarter since March 1, according to the report.



The US and Israeli strikes on Iran, and Tehran's military responses that began on February 28, have led to business disruptions and affected the travel, tourism and hospitality sectors in the region.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil trade usually passes, has also sparked a global energy crisis, raising fears of rising inflation and a slowdown in the global economy.

Continued investment momentum

Despite these circumstances, cross-border deal-making and investment flows within and outside the region continued, and long-term capital commitments remained unaffected.

The Gulf region is home to some of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, which invest on behalf of governments to achieve long-term returns.

The UAE, the second largest Arab economy, is home to a number of the most prominent sovereign investors, including the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Mubadala Investment and Development in Abu Dhabi, in addition to the Investment Corporation of Dubai.

The UAE is ranked as the largest sovereign investor in the Middle East and the fourth largest country globally in terms of total sovereign assets, which amounted to $3.08 trillion in March according to Global SWF.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is considered the largest sovereign wealth fund in the Gulf, with assets estimated at about $1.1 trillion, although it does not officially announce the size of its assets. This year, the fund celebrates its 50th anniversary, and invests directly and indirectly in stocks, bonds, infrastructure, private capital and real estate around the world.

Capital flows

According to the report, while most Gulf funds continue to direct their investments towards developed markets, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and the Saudi Public Investment Fund more prefer investment opportunities in emerging markets.

The report noted that “capital continued to flow towards American companies and funds, while both the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and the Public Investment Fund showed a preference for China and other emerging markets.”

Since the outbreak of the war, the Saudi Public Investment Fund has invested $6.1 billion in emerging markets, more than double the $2.43 billion it pumped into developed markets.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority also invested $3.32 billion in emerging markets, compared to $1.58 billion in developed markets.

As for Mubadala Investment, the strategic investment arm of Abu Dhabi, whose managed assets amounted to 1.4 trillion dirhams ($385 billion) at the end of last year, it invested more than $5.6 billion in developed markets, compared to only $330 million in emerging markets.

Al-Emad followed the same approach, directing $1.42 billion to developed markets, compared to $1.15 billion to emerging markets.

As for the Qatar Investment Authority, it invested $3.39 billion in developed markets during the same period, while its investments in emerging markets amounted to only about $60 million, according to the latest Global SWF data.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/bus...-in-gulf-sovereign-investments-amid-iran-war/