Bangladesh Socio-Political Crisis 2024

[PakAl]

Bro, going by the characters here - who claim to represent Bangladesh - I don’t think BD is ready for democracy.

You can have all the systems and process you like - but if people cannot accept plurality of views - then everything falls apart like a pack of cards!

We are heading for Martial Law then BNP autocracy.

And BAL LIKELY TO RETURN BEFORE 2030. Maybe sooner if BNP CANNOT control the Islamists in their ranks.

Learning from Egypt and Tunisia revolution, after a year or so when the situation calmed down, the deep state came back to power. Bangladesh could face the same. If the new power ie youth, students, professionals, clean politicians are not organised enough we will then witness the old forces coming back to power. The young people need to understand this. Regarding policies, it's not easy to make independent policies, Hasina on record claimed she wants balanced relations between Russia China Usa and look what happened to her, although she was definitely pro India. The Bangladeshi military establishment will decide on the new foreign policy, I believe no matter what the old policy will continue, establish a balanced relationship between all super powers, the Indian policy I am not sure about as Bangladesh will be inviting trouble if they try to reduce Indian influence, India wants to control bangali policies and politics in order to have an ally against China, they will not accept independent Bangladesh.

 

[Afif]

Learning from Egypt and Tunisia revolution, after a year or so when the situation calmed down, the deep state came back to power. Bangladesh could face the same. If the new power ie youth, students, professionals, clean politicians are not organised enough we will then witness the old forces coming back to power. The young people need to understand this. Regarding policies, it's not easy to make independent policies, Hasina on record claimed she wants balanced relations between Russia China Usa and look what happened to her, although she was definitely pro India. The Bangladeshi military establishment will decide on the new foreign policy, I believe no matter what the old policy will continue, establish a balanced relationship between all super powers, the Indian policy I am not sure about as Bangladesh will be inviting trouble if they try to reduce Indian influence, India wants to control bangali policies and politics in order to have an ally against China, they will not accept independent Bangladesh.

Your entire thinking is based on projecting PAK situation on BD. Every country and its system operate differently and has its unique phenomenon.

 

[LeonBlack08]

Whatever Pinaki says, I take it with a good amount of salt. As I said before, people like Pinaki and Farhad majhar are true revolutionaries. Compromise is not in their dictionaries. We need people like them to keep soft one sin check so they don't end up compromising too much.

However, when we are operating within statist power structure, it is always about balanced compromises. You never get 100% of what you want. In some case given the circumstances, sometimes you may have to take 60% as success.

For promoting army officials, the bar seems to be between those who were explicitly involved in crime of Hassina regimes and those who weren't but toe the line (whole muki judho chetona and sheikh Mujib thing) and played along. These folks are more concerned with their own carriers but did not ultimately tie their luck with Hassina regime like those generals who were explicitly involved in crimes hence forced to retired, fled or arrested. Yes, this is not ideal. The bar is low. We don't like it, and we should voice our dissatisfaction. Unfortunately for us all the major generals are appointed by Hassina regime anyway. Hence, if it ended up happening, we shouldn't go fully conspiratorial.

Because realistically, the chances of a coup is very low.

Gen walker had far more chance immediately after 5th of August when for several days we had no formal government.

Also, general waker cannot pull this alone. And had more chances of success with Hassina's royal generals who were expelled.

Secondly, and most importantly. this government is Widely backed up by uncle Sam and uncle Afif....ahm, I mean public, externally and internally. It's going to be really damn hard and risky to pull something like that right now.

There's lot going on behind the scene. We must remain vigilante but hopeful.

Agree. We can't have a perfect world where all pro Hasina officers are replaced with immediate effect. It can be done gradually over time, but not immediately.

Nonetheless, it's important for the likes of Pinaki to criticize and keep the government in check.

 

[MNZGamerX]

Learning from Egypt and Tunisia revolution, after a year or so when the situation calmed down, the deep state came back to power. Bangladesh could face the same. If the new power ie youth, students, professionals, clean politicians are not organised enough we will then witness the old forces coming back to power. The young people need to understand this. Regarding policies, it's not easy to make independent policies, Hasina on record claimed she wants balanced relations between Russia China Usa and look what happened to her, although she was definitely pro India. The Bangladeshi military establishment will decide on the new foreign policy, I believe no matter what the old policy will continue, establish a balanced relationship between all super powers, the Indian policy I am not sure about as Bangladesh will be inviting trouble if they try to reduce Indian influence, India wants to control bangali policies and politics in order to have an ally against China, they will not accept independent Bangladesh.

While every country and their systems operate differently also valid and pertinent generalizations can be made that apply across the board and are reasons why the Arab Spring, colour revolutions and uprisings in Hong Kong, Kazakhstan, Georgia all failed and the reason is that the deep state was ready to make a comeback and remained well entrenched. Unless the previous set up is extricated root and branch the risks remain and this more so in the case of Bangladesh as 80% of the previous set up still remains in very large part. The risks are increased by the fact that Bangladesh has an inimical neighbour which has been deeply embarrassed by the August 5 revolution and which has created a massive security dilemma for India.