what could happen if Taiwan is attacked
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17:00, 23 Nov 2024, updated 17:00, 23 Nov 2024By
JAMES REINL, SOCIAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT, FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
- Casualties would quickly hit 10,000 on all sides in simulations of a war in 2026
House lawmakers this week weighed the prospects for a 2026 conflict between the US,
Japan, and
China over
Taiwan in a war simulation that warned of devastating costs for all involved.
Exercises gamed out by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed how the US and its allies could derail an amphibious Chinese assault - but not without taking heavy losses themselves.
Fighting would claim some 10,000 casualties on all sides, CSIS projected. The US would lose 10-20 warships, two aircraft carriers, 200-400 warplanes and some 3,000 troops in just the first three weeks of fighting.
But China comes off worse, failing to regain Taiwan and losing most of its amphibious fleet, 52 major warships and 160 warplanes - a military humiliation that would imperil the country's communist leaders.
The grim war simulations come at a time of political upheaval, with Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te taking
a tougher line on China, which sees Taiwan as a renegade province to be unified with the mainland, by force if necessary.
China has ramped up its military activities around Taiwan in the past five years, and President
Xi Jinping has reportedly asked his generals to prepare to retake the island of 24 million people as soon as 2027.
US President
Joe Biden has vowed to defend the territory. But the US is not under any treaty obligations to do so, and president-elect
Donald Trump has signaled he is less willing to bankroll a war in
Asia in pursuit of his 'America First' policy.
Against this tense backdrop, the CSIS this week showcased 25 possible simulations of the conflict to the members of the House China Select Committee, which is led by
Michigan Republican John Moolenaar.
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Ready for action: A Taiwanese conscript launches rockets during an exercise at a military base in Tainan, Taiwan
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The big unknown: Would Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) launch an attack on Taiwan, and would president-elect Donald Trump defend the island? Pictured: a meeting of the two leaders in 2017
'We walked through one simulation of what might happen in a worst-case scenario conflict with China and learned ways we can work together, in a bipartisan manner, to ensure that America is prepared,' Moolenaar told Fox News.
'No matter where or when, the US and our allies must have the military means to defeat our adversaries,' he said, adding that America may have to be the world's 'arsenal of democracy once more if called upon.'
The Chinese defense industry is operating on a 'wartime footing,' and has
ramped up its shipbuilding capacity 230 times greater than America's, reducing the military advantage the US has enjoyed for decades against the rising Asian power, the CSIS warns.
Analysts urged lawmakers to be ready to act fast against a Chinese assault on Taiwan - saying the 'Ukraine' strategy of gradually upping support to that country to repel Russian invaders would not work in the South China Sea.
Taiwan would have to hold the line against an assault, and the US would need to join the fight immediately, operating through its bases in Japan, says Matthew Cancian, a Naval War College professor and lead author of the project.
'If the US were not to join the fight for two weeks [after an invasion], it would be too late,' says Cancian, a Marine veteran.
'China would already have too strong a footing.'
Washington also needs to send more anti-ship missiles to Taiwan to defend itself against an attack, the report says.
CSIS said Japan's role in any such conflict was paramount and called for quickly bolstering US-Japan ties, as South Korea would likely not get involved in a war over Taiwan.
Cancian said it would be 'very helpful if South Korea stood shoulder-to-shoulder with us.'
Analysts also warned that North Korea may use a Taiwan crisis as an opportunity to invade the South, perhaps using the troops currently getting combat experience
backing Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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Taiwan President Lai Ching-te (center) is taking a tougher line on independence from China than his predecessors
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A M60A3 tank fires live rounds in Penghu, Taiwan, in a simulation of a response to an attack from China's Coast Guard vessels and militia boats
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War exercises gamed out by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed how the US and its allies could derail an amphibious Chinese assault
Defence minister reports Chinese aircrafts near Taiwan in army drills
Cancian warned that US forces could not defend Taiwan from afar and would have to be deployed on the island to halt any Chinese attack.
That's because China's anti-tank and anti-air missiles would threaten US shipments of weapons to the island.
'US forces would have to be directly involved,' said Cancian.
'There is no way to achieve denying a takeover of Taiwan while also keeping US forces safe.'
Researchers warned that China is outproducing
the US on airplanes, ships, and missiles.
Beijing's land attack missiles and anti-ship missiles would be particularly devastating to US and allied forces there.
The Pentagon must ramp up production of Harpoon anti-ship missiles, coastal defense cruise missiles and other munitions to defend Taiwan, it is claimed.
Washington's current stockpile of some 440 anti-ship missiles would run out in less than seven days in a war with China, researchers warned.
They urged Taiwan's admirals to stop ordering large ships that China can easily target and destroy, and focus on smaller vessels and stealthy submarines.
The US has long maintained a policy of 'strategic ambiguity' over whether it would step in to
defend Taiwan from a Chinese assault.
The policy makes Taipei unwilling to provoke a war by formally declaring independence from China, while at the same time deterring Beijing from invading the island, for fear of ending up at war with a superpower.
In the war game scenario, Trump, who is set to be president in 2026, comes to the defense of Taiwan.
The US is Taiwan's most important international backer and arms supplier, despite the lack of formal diplomatic recognition.
It is not clear what Trump would do under such a scenario - he has in the past suggested Taiwan should pay Washington for giving it defensive aid.
The war-gaming took place against the backdrop of mounting tensions between Taiwan, China, and the US.
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Taiwanese soldiers stand guard during the 'Chen-Chiang' nighttime military exercises, in Penghu, Taiwan
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Taiwan President Lai Ching-te visits a military camp in Taoyuan, Taiwan, in May 2024, soon after taking office
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A member of the honour guards is seen during a ceremony commemorating the 75th anniversary of the Battle of Guningtou in Kinmen, Taiwan
Taiwan military on high alert as Chinese drills encircle the island
Taiwan's President Lai will visit Taipei's three remaining diplomatic allies in the Pacific on a trip starting at the end of the month, his office said on Friday.
But the government declined to give details on any transit stops by the president on US soil.
Taiwanese presidents usually use visits to allies to make what are officially stop-overs in the US, where they often meet with friendly politicians and give speeches, which anger Beijing.
On two occasions in the past two years, China
staged military drills around Taiwan after presidential or vice-presidential stopovers in the US.
Taiwan's government rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims and says it has a right to engage with outer countries and for
its leaders to make foreign trips.
In August of last year, China held a day of military drills around Taiwan after then-vice president Lai
returned from the US, where he officially made only stopovers but gave speeches on his way to and from Paraguay.
In April of last year, China also
held war games around Taiwan in anger at a US trip by then-president Tsai Ing-wen, who met then-US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles.
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