China hits back at Canada with fresh agriculture tariffs

[ety]

. They can make another China if shit hits the fan. India could be the next China. I don't see why that's impossible to happen.

And the West has tried to make India an alternate to China for a decade or so, what's the results ? India's share of world manufacturing is just 2.8%, actually has declined in recent years. Nothing are impossible with the US and EU to you.

 

[Developereo]

Turkey doesn't need to capture the global market from China. It's just an example of a regional player that produces products of comparatively better/similar quality than China in a similar/slightly lower price range. Iran is another example if the US lifts sanctions on Iran.
But you are completely missing the point. Who made China the China it is today and why? The West, and because of cheap labor. They can make another China if shit hits the fan. India could be the next China. I don't see why that's impossible to happen.

You are not giving China credit. All these countries had the option to be the world's factory but they did not become one. Only China did. Also, it is 1950s mentality to think the Chinese are only doing manual labor that anyone else can easily pick up.

There is ZERO chance of India, Turkey or any other country replacing China or the US because the game has moved on. In almost every single 21st century technology, the race is between China and the US. The rest of the world is so far behind, it has zero chance to catch up unless these two stumble and fall. Even Europe is out of the game, never mind India or Turkey.

China has two choices now: a radical change from their passive policy and full-on trade war for which they are not prepared yet, or to wait out Trump and try to weather the storm. Knowing China based on their policies of the last 2 decades, I think they will go for the latter.

China doesn't make rash moves and I agree China will take the cautious approach and let Trump make mistakes.

China's policy of self-isolation will lead nobody more than them because

No it won't because there is no cost-effective alternative to Chinese products. Turkey has not replaced China.

even Iran doesn't rely on them as much as it relies on Western tech.

Again, I would suggest it's because Iran suffers from 1950s mindset. The China of today is not the China of 1950s. China has already surpassed Europe in almost every technology. The only competition is the US.

 

[GatlingGun]

And the West has tried to make India an alternate to China for a decade or so, what's the results ? India's share of world manufacturing is just 2.8%, actually has declined in recent years.

Then why are Chinese panicking ? China +1 policy only surfaced after Covid in 2021.
That too was overshadowed by China reselling it's goods labelled from Vietnam, Combodia etc countries. But those hogwash countries will now face real competition, Including China.

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[ShapurII]

And the West has tried to make India an alternate to China for a decade or so, what's the results ? India's share of world manufacturing is just 2.8%, actually has declined in recent years. Nothing are impossible with the US and EU to you.

It hasn't been that long, I think. Even iPhone 12 was still manufactured in China. It took China 2-3 decades to get where it is now. India's GDP growth has been 8% and 6% in 2023 and 2024 during the Ukraine-Russia war which has negatively impacted global economy. Give them some time.

You are not giving China credit. All these countries had the option to be the world's factory but they did not become one. Only China did. Also, it is 1950s mentality to think the Chinese are only doing manual labor that anyone else can easily pick up.

I have nothing against China. I am not saying that the Chinese weren't smart to choose that policy and make it work. But now that they have done it successfully, the model can be replicated.

There is ZERO chance of India, Turkey or any other country replacing China or the US because the game has moved on. In almost every single 21st century technology, the race is between China and the US. The rest of the world is so far behind, it has zero chance to catch up unless these two stumble and fall.

I did not challenge this. It's literally a US-China world now. Nobody is disputing that. Minimum wage in California is $15.5/hour. So, production costs in the US are high. An Indian worker gets hardly $150-$180 per month. So, India can be used for cheap labor. They don't have to be a high-tech country to be used for that. China wasn't a high-tech country in 80s when they adopted their economic growth model.

China doesn't make rash moves and I agree China will take the cautious approach and let Trump make mistakes.

What other options do they have? It's either full-on trade war or the "cautious" approach. The US dominance over world economy is much more than just technology. It's the US dollar, the banking system, financial institutions, even the UN and the internet.

No it won't because there is no cost-effective alternative to Chinese products. Turkey has not replaced China.

I just told you two options in Iran. Iranian local products and Turkish products. Chinese high-quality products are far from cheap these days.

Again, I would suggest it's because Iran suffers from 1950s mindset. The China of today is not the China of 1950s. China has already surpassed Europe in almost every technology. The only competition is the US.

Europe isn't even the main player anymore, except for the UK and Germany in some limited areas. Even South Korea has surpassed Europe. China has not surpassed the US in any meaningful way and it won't do so any time soon.

 

[ety]

Then why are Chinese panicking ? China +1 policy only surfaced after Covid in 2021.
That too was overshadowed by China reselling it's goods labelled from Vietnam, Combodia etc countries. But those hogwash countries will now face real competition, Includijg China.

Lol, who is panicking, are you talking of your country instead ? China has now advanced to another level of high tech manufacturing since Trump's trade war about a decade ago, wake up ! Some labor intensive Chinese companies just like in others are free to go to other countries such as ASEAN countries where they can make good profits, but not to India, lol, it's just business sense.

 

[Beijingwalker]

Ranked: The Export Dependency of Major Economies​

April 16, 2025
By Niccolo Conte

Global trade is in a precarious situation with rising tensions from President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announced in early April, some of which were subsequently paused for 90 days on April 9, 2025.

These uncertainties can have far-reaching impacts, with trade flows playing a critical role in the GDP of several economies—especially those that are export-oriented.

This infographic highlights the export dependency of major economies, measured by the share of goods exports in nominal GDP in 2023. The data comes from U.N. Comtrade and was sourced from a report by J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Some economies are heavily reliant on global markets to sustain their growth, while others, like the United States, rely more on domestic consumption.

Below is a breakdown of how much the export of goods contributes to national GDP across several major economies:

At the top of the list is South Korea, where exports made up 38% of GDP in 2023. South Korea’s export engine is fueled by semiconductors, automobiles, and petroleum.

The European Union follows closely at 37%, with member nations trading between each other (exporting within the EU) as well as externally.

In North America, Mexico stands out with a high export-to-GDP ratio of 33%, followed by Canada at 26%. Unsurprisingly, the U.S. is the top destination for exports from both these countries, accounting for over 70% of their exports.

Meanwhile, China and the U.S. have the lowest export dependency among major economies, despite being the world’s two biggest goods exporters by value, respectively. The U.S. remains China’s top destination for exports, accounting for nearly 13% or $436 billion of Chinese exports in 2023.

Globally, trade-reliant economies are vulnerable to rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions in 2025.

Trump’s newly raised tariff rates have left the global trade system and financial markets in turmoil, although the 90-day pause has led to relief for some countries.

However, tensions between the U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest economies, have only heightened. The U.S. has raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, and China has escalated countermeasures with a 125% levy on U.S. goods.

Considering the uncertainty from these current events, the global trading system will likely see major shifts in 2025 as economies react to Trump’s foreign policy measures and work to establish new trade partners and correct trade imbalances.

Ranked: The Export Dependency of Major Economies

The U.S. and China are the least export-reliant among major economies, with South Korea and the EU topping the list.

www.visualcapitalist.com

 

[Beijingwalker]

China doesn't depend much on exports for its economy, while no country can afford giving up an increasingly wealthy 1.4 billion consumers market. This is why global giants like Apple , Tesla, BMW...all have their main factories and research hubs in China.

 

[Beijingwalker]

If the west can find alternatives they'd have shifted from China long time ago, the fact is that Chinese manufacturers had long pushed foreign competitors out of the business and now for so many products the only choice buyers can make is buying them from a Chinese manufacturer or another Chinese manufacturer.

 

[drkrn86]

This is very interesting.

Could you explain it more?

China, today might be stronger on comparison to the erst while Soviet union. But, it hasn't reached parity to USA in economic, Military, and diplomatic fronts

 

[Developereo]

IIndia's GDP growth has been 8% and 6% in 2023 and 2024 during the Ukraine-Russia war which has negatively impacted global economy. Give them some time.

India is mostly focused on the service sector and there are very few global Indian brands that innovate to compete with the West. This is already after two decades of Western investment in India. By contrast, China has caught up in almost every industry where initially they were just a factory for Western IP.

So, India can be used for cheap labor. They don't have to be a high-tech country to be used for that.

You can't move the entire supply chain; you have to move piecemeal and other countries are much better positioned and cheaper: Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc. They are also much better integrated with China which will always be part of the supply chain. Trump's tariff war is a last ditch effort to complete isolate China but it's far too late.

The US dominance over world economy is much more than just technology. It's the US dollar, the banking system, financial institutions, even the UN and the internet.

Yes, I don't think China has any illusions that it will topple the US any time soon. What China is doing is to make it clear that the US dominance is not as absolute as it used to be and any victory over China will come at an unacceptable cost.

Also, as I mentioned, for most things China can now supply an acceptable alternative and there are only a few things where Western premium pricing can be justified.

 

[Beijingwalker]

China, today might be stronger on comparison to the erst while Soviet union. But, it hasn't reached parity to USA in economic, Military, and diplomatic fronts

China is the world biggest trading nation, export nation, trade surplus nation, industrial nation, agricultural nation, mining nation, manufacturing nation, maritime nation... none of those titles that the Soviet Union ever achieved.

 

[MH.Yang]

US diplomacy, US blackmail, US manipulation, US softpower and US militairy is unmatched.

Unparalleled?

Trump initially wanted to make a deal with China first, and then use China's deal to coerce other countries into signing the harshest deals. He was not wrong in this idea and sequence, but China has been preparing for a second trade war for five years, all Chinese people, institutions, media, have been ready for it for a long time, even the trade war study group has been established for five years. That's why China chose to be the first to fight back and decouple quickly.

After failing to threaten China and the EU, so Trump chose Japan and wanted to sign a deal with Japan first. But China and Japan and South Korea realized the exchange of visits between high-level economic officials as early as the end of 2014, and had already reached a consensus in advance. So Trump failed in Japan as well.

Now Trump has been reduced to sending his vice president to visit India on his own initiative, hoping to reach an agreement from India first. It's been reduced to being on the same level as the Indians and it actually feels good?

Let me remind Americans to tell your president to stop wasting his time tweeting so many exclamation points, it doesn't work.

His most urgent matters right now should be: one, set up a panel on commodity supply chain substitution as soon as possible to address the coming supply shortages. Two, solve the U.S. debt problem as soon as possible. The U.S. has $6.5 trillion in debt coming due this June and needs debt restructuring.

Lest Americans who are not good at math have no concept of the $6.5 trillion figure, let me remind you. The U.S. has 50 million middle- and high-income households, and it would need to buy $130,000 in debt per household to reach $6.5 trillion. 6.5 trillion is also equivalent to 64% of all global foreign exchange reserves. Americans won't forget the inflation that continues from 2019 to today, will they? That's because Biden issued an additional $2 trillion in currency and $6.5 trillion is 325% of that. Trump should figure out how to fix that first, about 40 days to go. By the way, know about the Weimar Republic? It is a classic example of a failed debt restructuring of a large country.

By the way, in addition to the $6.5 trillion maturing this June, there is another $3 trillion maturing later this year. Have a good time, we're going to get off now.

 

[JsCh]

I don't think China has any problem with any country that make a deal with US. Historically China did not interfere and have always respect other countries sovereign right to make trade agreement amongst themselves.

But if countries enact policy that discriminate against China interest, then it should be fully expect that China would retaliate with its own policy.

It is simply the sovereign right of any country to protect its own interest. I am sure every country in the world would want the same right for themselves.

China and US is two powerful countries in the world.

They both control enormous resources that could cause big problem for other countries.

There is simply no reason to force countries to chose to trade with only one or the other.

The US should respect the right of sovereign country to trade with one another. If US want to sanction or tariff another country, it can do that, but it really does not have the right to force other country to do the same.

 

[MH.Yang]

The EU, Japan, Canada and others have already broken down negotiations with the US. China's warning was directed at India.

India pandered and speculated to Trump in 2017 during the first trade war between the US and China by provoking the Tonkin incident, blocking Chinese apps and increasing tariffs on China.

China gave India advance warning to Modi not to kneel to Vance. Is it hard to understand?

 

[drkrn86]

China is the world biggest trading nation, export nation, trade surplus nation, industrial nation, agricultural nation, mining nation, manufacturing nation, maritime nation... none of those titles that the Soviet Union ever achieved.

Sorry to say it in a harsh way, China neigther had ideological supporters nor will it ever have.
Your so called titles are mostly bi-directional. Lucky if you still keep that despite of the sanctions.