Chinese 6th Generation Aircraft News & Discussions

hyperman said:
You are forgetting one key advantage, when the US develops it, China can just steal it to quicken the process. :p
Click to expand...
No they are not relying on stealing or copy paste anymore but they are developing from scratch themselves
 

China’s 6th Generation and Upcoming Combat Aircraft: 2024 Update​

A look at where the PLA’s cutting-edge aircraft programs – from the J-XD to J-20 upgrades and the mysterious H-20 stealth bomber – stand.
By Rick Joe
June 11, 2024


China’s 6th Generation and Upcoming Combat Aircraft: 2024 Update

China’s fifth-generation fighter, the J-20.
Credit: Sina Weibo

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In previous articles, I have documented the progression of combat aircraft in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), as well as conveyed projections and estimates of near-term outcomes. Various established aircraft have reached milestones in recent years, and some future expected projects are likely to make their presence felt in coming years into the second half of the decade.
However, PLA secrecy remains unique among the major military forces of the world, and this has only intensified in the last half decade as geopolitical tensions have escalated. In this article, I will aim to summarize known indicators and make estimates for various upcoming projects.
J-XD: Naming the Next-Generation Fighter
The PLA’s sixth-generation manned fighter, or next-generation manned fighter, is considered to be an established program of record that is under active development and expected to emerge in some form during this decade. However, before discussion of this project can commence, a stand-in title for it is necessary, as there is no current consensus name from the Chinese language PLA watching community. I will use “J-XD” to refer to this project, until such a time that a consensus name emerges to replace it.
J-XD is a concise name which can be seen as a pinyin acronym. “XD” can represent either “xīn dài” (新代 meaning new generation), or “xià dài” (下代 next generation), both of which are reasonable titles. J-XD also avoids using a numbered system that may introduce confusion as to whether the aircraft is “sixth-generation” or “fifth-generation,” given the Chinese military nomenclature seems to use both the domestic Chinese generation system and the Western generation system at times. Utilizing a name that includes “NGAD” (Next Generation Air Dominance, the U.S. Air Force’s name for their sixth-generation project) is somewhat inappropriate given the use of English words in an acronym for a Chinese project. Furthermore, J-XD has the additional benefit of paying homage to the stand-in name for J-20 (known in the 2000s as “J-XX”).
Current indicators for the J-XD remain largely unchanged from the last few years. It is generally accepted that various demonstrator test beds (potentially subscale) have been flown, and a more stealthy, tailless flying wing/flying arrowhead airframe is considered one of the likely configurations it may adopt.
The J-XD is virtually guaranteed to incorporate new generation subsystems and technologies in propulsion, sensors, computing and networking, and is likely to operate alongside future unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) or collaborative combat aircraft (CCAs). A selection of papers exploring airframe testing, engine development, and aerospace engineering efforts that have relevance to J-XD development are also accessible with the right search terms. Meanwhile, generic next-generation fighter representations have been shown both by state aircraft manufacturers and at defense expos.
Unsurprisingly, more granular rumors or estimates regarding the subsystems, weapons, and characteristics of the J-XD remain elusive even among the PLA watching community; however, it is widely accepted that the J-XD ranks among the most important upcoming projects for the PLA. In context of this, U.S. Air Force senior officers have reasonably alluded to viewing Chinese sixth-generation efforts as an underway competitor.
Current Fifth-Generation Efforts
However, before the J-XD emerges, there are still a number of active and vigorous fifth-generation fighter types in active development and production for the PLA. The fates of these fighters will also relate to the outcome and trajectory of the J-XD, in terms of the procurement scale and timeline of each respective type.
The J-20 family is the primary PLA fifth-generation fighter family, and has seen increases in both production scale and technological upgrades in recent years. However nomenclature once again needs to be discussed. At present, “J-20” is the name of the baseline variant in production powered by WS-10 engines (and by Al-31 engines in the first batch); this fighter is externally identified by its non-beaked nose as well as the lack of a dorsal hump behind the canopy.
“J-20A” is the name of the improved variant in development (and possibly early production) that is intended to be powered by more capable WS-15 engines (but may enter initial production with WS-10 engines). Multiple prototypes of the J-20A exist and can be identified by a slightly beaked nose and a dorsal hump behind the canopy.
Unfortunately, some “general knowledge” websites such as Wikipedia list the J-20 and J-20A as “J-20A” and “J-20B,” respectively, which are not appropriate consensus names for the respective variants. This serves to create confusion.
Estimates from think tanks and professional military institutes, suggest that around 200 J-20s have been produced as of the end of 2023 or early 2024. In context of rumors from the Chinese language PLA watching community, these estimates appear somewhat out of date. Indeed, estimates from the PLA watching community estimate that the 200-airframe milestone was reached some time in late 2022 or early 2023.
Furthermore, it is thought that at some point in 2022 to 2023, the annual production rate of J-20s from Chengdu had grown to approach three digits (i.e.: 100 airframes a year). This would give China the ability to annually equip three frontline PLA Air Force brigades, which also tracks with the number of new J-20 units being converted in recent years.
At the time of writing in mid-2024, I cautiously estimate that the J-20 fleet size may approach 300 airframes. It must be noted that future J-20 production rates may change (either increase or decrease) as the program proceeds. PLA secrecy and the difficult nature of attaining consistent high-quality satellite imagery means any “concrete” estimate of the J-20 fleet size is likely to be meaningfully behind from facts on the ground at any given time, though may serve as a useful “minimum floor” estimate.
The new J-20A variant remains in development, though unverified rumors suggest it may be on the cusp of early production. Major elements to confirm for the J-20A include whether initial production batches are powered by WS-10 or WS-15 engines (with the J-20A prototype serial 2052 powered by WS-15s flying in mid-2023), as well as how production of the J-20A and J-20 will cross with one another. J-20A advancements must also be watched, as the variant is not merely a J-20 with more powerful engines, but is rumored and expected to include an overhaul of software, avionics and sensor suites (even more so than inter-batch advancements for existing J-20s), material and structural advancements with corresponding signature reduction benefits, as well as significant power and thermal management advances. All of these enhancement will enhance future growth potential and a wider variety of upgrades and payloads. Among global peers, perhaps the most intuitive comparison for the J-20A is the TR3 variant and Block 4 upgrade for the F-35 family.
Of note, the twin seat “J-20S” (also known as the “J-20AS” or “J-20B”) is currently thought to be a technology demonstrator related to the J-20A variant to enhance and accelerate developmental efforts. However, the emergence of a production variant of the twin seat “J-20S” cannot be excluded in the future.
The J-35/XY and FC-31 derived family of fighters are the other major Chinese fifth-generation program. The carrier-borne J-35/XY has been flying in the form of prototypes since 2021, and mockups have been visible aboard both the catapult equipped CV-18 Fujian (which recently began its sea trials), as well as the CV-16 Liaoning, which may precede flight testing aboard the respective carriers. The presence of a J-35 mockup aboard the Liaoning is significant, as it indicates the fighter is compatible with the PLA Navy’s ski jump carriers (the Liaoning and CV-17 Shandong), which can significantly bolster the capability and future relevance of both ships.
Presently, the J-35 is expected to proceed with carrier flight testing in the near-term future, with initial production possibly to commence within the next couple of years at the earliest. There may also be indicators that a “J-31” developed from the FC-31 demonstrator intended for PLA use (or potentially for an export customer) may have also recently flown; however, this is yet to be confirmed. It is unclear how a notional “J-31” may fit in context of PLA procurement of J-20 family aircraft that is occurring at relatively large scale, not to mention the future J-XD and expectant UCAVs/CCAs.
H-20’s Status Unclear
Compared to fighter efforts like the J-XD, J-20 and J-35, the status of the much rumored and anticipated H-20 stealth bomber has become much less clear in recent years. While there remain occasional official remarks alluding to the development of the H-20, there have been some uncertain rumors in recent months that the H-20 as a project may not be pursued in the previous consensus form of a stealthy flying wing bomber.
This would not be entirely unprecedented, as the evolving strategic environment in the last half decade may have caused revisions of various projects and their respective priority, causing the public understanding of the project to be in limbo. We have seen a similar degree of secrecy for the future of China’s carrier procurement beyond Fujian. Somewhat more unprecedented for the H-20, however, is the relatively high-profile nature in which its existence was acknowledged as early as the late 2010s, creating a greater degree of concrete expectation for it than other past projects.
At this stage, the status and prediction of H-20 remains unclear. It may well still be an active project, or alternatively it may have undergone substantial revisions and emerge later than previously expected in an wholly different form, or even have elements of its role be delegated to other systems such as UCAVs/CCAs for the near term. Interestingly, there have been some rumors that the J-XD is considered a project of higher priority than the H-20. But in the absence of context or detail, it is difficult to substantiate this.
The PLA’s Unmanned Future
The PLA’s pursuit of high-end UCAVs is fairly established, with the stealthy flying wing GJ-11 being the most well-known type. Its program status (both in stage of development as well as production) is unknown, but potentially a small number of airframes exist in advanced testing. What is known is that a carrier-based stealthy flying wing UCAV (possibly derived from GJ-11) is expected to emerge, with a mockup having been observed aboard the PLA Navy carrier mockup in Wuhan, and a possible new airframe variant having emerged within the last year. A number of other flying wing UAV platforms are also known to exist, and with likely multiple more in more secretive development without public knowledge.
Various air-to-air oriented CCA concepts have also been shown at Chinese defense expos such as the Zhuhai airshow; however, these remain largely in line with various CCA projects around the world, and it is likely that more sophisticated models for PLA use are in more secretive development. The lower profile and more compact nature of many UCAVs and CCAs, as well as greater inherent PLA secrecy, makes it likely that a number of different UCAV and CCA concepts are in development and testing, and their emergence to the public sphere is likely only going to occur in late stages of development or even introduction into service.
Similar to other efforts by international air forces, PLA UCAVs and CCAs are very likely to be integral capabilities with the future J-XD fighter, as well as be compatible with existing fifth-generation fighters like the J-20 and J-35, and potentially 4.5-generation fighters such as the J-16 and J-10C with requisite upgrades.
The future trajectory and shape of PLA high end UCAV and CCA procurement remains one of the major unknowns of tracking future PLA combat aircraft.
Uncharted Waters
At this point in time, the long arc of Chinese combat aircraft (and in particular, manned fighter aircraft) development has brought China into the same category as leading edge aerospace powers, even when considering a few remaining industry domains where China has yet to catch up or scale (such as advanced turbofans). The overall level of advancement somewhat complicates projections of upcoming PLA combat aircraft projects, due to lack of existing comparable platforms that can guide public speculation.
The J-XD and associated future PLA UCAV and CCA projects will emerge alongside other global projects in highly uncharted waters, and may prove to be more fascinating than past PLA aerospace tracking efforts, and indeed more novel than past global military aerospace tracking since the Cold War.
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Rick Joe is a longtime follower of Chinese military developments, with a focus on air and naval platforms.
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thediplomat.com

China’s 6th Generation and Upcoming Combat Aircraft: 2024 Update

A look at where the PLA’s cutting-edge aircraft programs – from the J-XD to J-20 upgrades and the mysterious H-20 stealth bomber – stand.
thediplomat.com
 
@Deino @guangdongt
Any input on the alleged flight of a 6th gen parasite jet?

One with two UCAVs within its wings?
 

China's covert 6th fighter jet program: What we know about their sixth-gen developments​


m.economictimes.com

China's covert 6th fighter jet program: What we know about their sixth-gen developments

China is pushing ahead with its ambitious sixth-generation fighter jet program, aiming for a prototype by 2028 and a meaningful design by the late 2030s. Experts highlight China's significant progress in aerospace technology, suggesting it could rival global leaders within two decades. This...
m.economictimes.com m.economictimes.com
 
@silicon0000
6th Generation Fighter Aircraft

The world is currently doing detail technology research. Some explorations of the appearance and airframe of the next generation of fighters. As well as research on combat doctrine. All the published and leaked PPTs are basically research material of an exploratory nature. Don't think that they are the appearance of the real 6th generation fighter in the future.

What is the 6th generation fighter? What are the conditions for its determination? Why are these conditions needed? How to achieve these conditions? At present, there is no unified standard, nor has any country put forward specific and complete programmes and indicators.

When it comes to 5th generation fighters, the United States is definitely in the lead, so the 4S standard it proposes is recognised globally. Although the F22/F35 are not strictly speaking fully compliant with the 4S standard, people still consider them to be fifth-generation fighters.

The 6th generation fighters, the US, China, Europe, Russia, are all grabbing the lead on this track. Currently everyone is basically in a stalemate phase, and the gap between leading and lagging is not that big. So the likelihood of everyone reaching a consensus is slim. The 6th generation of fighters will show the situation of a hundred flowers blossoming.
 
Last edited:
Michael said:
@silicon0000
6th Generation Fighter Aircraft

The world is currently doing detail technology research. Some explorations of the appearance and airframe of the next generation of fighters. As well as research on combat doctrine. All the published and leaked PPTs are basically research material of an exploratory nature. Don't think that they are the appearance of the real 6th generation fighter in the future.

What is the 6th generation fighter? What are the conditions for its determination? Why are these conditions needed? How to achieve these conditions? At present, there is no unified standard, nor has any country put forward specific and complete programmes and indicators.

When it comes to 5th generation fighters, the United States is definitely in the lead, so the 4S standard it proposes is recognised globally. Although the F22/F35 are not strictly speaking fully compliant with the 4S standard, people still consider them to be fifth-generation fighters.

The 6th generation fighters, the US, China, Europe, Russia, are all grabbing the lead on this track. Currently everyone is basically in a stalemate phase, and the gap between leading and lagging is not that big. So the likelihood of everyone reaching a consensus is slim. The 6th generation of fighters will show the situation of a hundred flowers blossoming.
Click to expand...

In my personal view, 6th-generation fighter jet presents China with a unique opportunity to establish its own standards for innovation, expertise, and requirements. Unlike previous generations, where China adhered to established specifications, this new generation allows for greater autonomy. While there may be some overlap in innovative technologies between China's 6th-generation jet and those developed by the United States and Europe, China also has the potential to introduce distinctive innovations and technologies that set its aircraft apart. Areas of potential overlap include artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, advanced materials, directed energy weapons, space warfare, unmanned aerial vehicle integration, advanced communication technologies, quantum technologies, big data management technologies, anti-access/area-denial capabilities, better and faster reach and penetration, and a comprehensive command and control system. Innovations in each of these areas can also be a defining factor in determining which aircraft ultimately proves superior.
 
silicon0000 said:
In my personal view, 6th-generation fighter jet presents China with a unique opportunity to establish its own standards for innovation, expertise, and requirements. Unlike previous generations, where China adhered to established specifications, this new generation allows for greater autonomy. While there may be some overlap in innovative technologies between China's 6th-generation jet and those developed by the United States and Europe, China also has the potential to introduce distinctive innovations and technologies that set its aircraft apart. Areas of potential overlap include artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, advanced materials, directed energy weapons, space warfare, unmanned aerial vehicle integration, advanced communication technologies, quantum technologies, big data management technologies, anti-access/area-denial capabilities, better and faster reach and penetration, and a comprehensive command and control system. Innovations in each of these areas can also be a defining factor in determining which aircraft ultimately proves superior.
Click to expand...
My View:

China will not be the first to announce.

China will announce some detailed technology development progress in due course, but not the complete 6th gen fighter programme, let alone the 6th gen fighter standard.

But, China may be the first to announce this standard or programme if the following conditions are met
1. China's intelligence system shows that China is already in the absolute lead.
2. China wants to drag the United States into the 6th generation fighter arms race.
China may use ‘official leaks’ to announce this at certain times.
 
Michael said:
My View:

China will not be the first to announce.

China will announce some detailed technology development progress in due course, but not the complete 6th gen fighter programme, let alone the 6th gen fighter standard.

But, China may be the first to announce this standard or programme if the following conditions are met
1. China's intelligence system shows that China is already in the absolute lead.
2. China wants to drag the United States into the 6th generation fighter arms race.
China may use ‘official leaks’ to announce this at certain times.
Click to expand...

Yes agreed, China might not be the first to announce 6th Gen standards, but they have an opportunity to introduce unique features that could add a new dimension to these standards. So far, the standards have been largely defined by the United States. While I'm not suggesting a complete overhaul, even one or a few unique Chinese contributions could make a significant impact on 6th Gen technology. Rest agree with you.
 
silicon0000 said:
Yes agreed, China might not be the first to announce 6th Gen standards, but they have an opportunity to introduce unique features that could add a new dimension to these standards. So far, the standards have been largely defined by the United States. While I'm not suggesting a complete overhaul, even one or a few unique Chinese contributions could make a significant impact on 6th Gen technology. Rest agree with you.
Click to expand...
The big unanswered question is:

Will the air war be extended to near space (20-100 Km)?

The current international consensus is not to extend war into space. Near space is an ambiguous zone of war. Only ballistic missiles (attack and defence) and some flight vehicles for reconnaissance purposes (high altitude airships, high altitude balloons) operate in this airspace now.
Both China and the United States have some exploratory scientific research activities in this airspace.
If the sixth generation fighter aircraft incorporates air warfare in near space into its design, it will usher in a revolutionary change.
For example:
It will not be able to continue using turbofan engines;
Its aerodynamic layout will be completely changed;
Its skin will be replaced with a more heat-resistant material;
its pilots will use astronaut-class maintenance life systems;
.......................

Nowadays, there are many options for technology modules and each country chooses the combination according to its situation. It is not surprising that any PPT appears.
 
Michael said:
The big unanswered question is:

Will the air war be extended to near space (20-100 Km)?

The current international consensus is not to extend war into space. Near space is an ambiguous zone of war. Only ballistic missiles (attack and defence) and some flight vehicles for reconnaissance purposes (high altitude airships, high altitude balloons) operate in this airspace now.
Both China and the United States have some exploratory scientific research activities in this airspace.
If the sixth generation fighter aircraft incorporates air warfare in near space into its design, it will usher in a revolutionary change.
For example:
It will not be able to continue using turbofan engines;
Its aerodynamic layout will be completely changed;
Its skin will be replaced with a more heat-resistant material;
its pilots will use astronaut-class maintenance life systems;
.......................

Nowadays, there are many options for technology modules and each country chooses the combination according to its situation. It is not surprising that any PPT appears.
Click to expand...

When the capability and clear advantages are present, it's merely a matter of time before air warfare extends to near space. Eventually, it will happen.

And it is just one new dimension (whether comes early or late), many more will be part of 6th Generation System.
 
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