Has the US-China tech war reversed? China plans to impose export restrictions on "63 strategic technologies".
14:49 2026/06/02 China Times
Lan Xiaowei
US and Western sanctions have forced a new strategy! A Chinese research team has retaliated by imposing export controls on 63 "key technologies," including quantum communication, electromagnetic catapults, and rare earth recycling. (Image: shutterstock/Dazhi)
Since Trump launched a trade war against China during his first term, the United States, together with its Western allies, has continued to tighten restrictions on China's access to high-end technologies, targeting semiconductors, AI, quantum computing, aerospace, supercomputers, and various dual-use technologies, in an attempt to curb China's high-end manufacturing and cutting-edge technology development.
The trade war has reversed course, with China shifting from a passive to an active position.
However, with China achieving breakthroughs in several strategic technological fields, the original landscape has been reversed. According to a report by the South China Morning Post on June 1, cited by Guancha.cn, a Chinese research team has drafted a "comprehensive" export control list targeting the United States and its allies, covering 63 technological fields. This indicates that China is no longer merely a passive recipient of international technological restrictions, but also urgently needs to establish an independent and controllable technology outflow management system for its core technologies, which have already established a global leading advantage.
National-level think tank endorsement for cutting-edge academic research
According to reports, this groundbreaking study, titled "A Selection Framework and Empirical Study for Export-Restricted Technologies," was first published in the *Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences* on March 19 and was reiterated in a press release from the journal on May 21. The paper delves into "a fundamental strategic issue that has rarely been publicly discussed in mainland China in recent years."
The corresponding author of the paper is Fan Guobin, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and one of the core academic leaders in the field of high-energy laser engineering in mainland China; the first author is Peng Xianke, deputy secretary-general of the China Academy of Engineering Science and Technology Innovation Strategy. Peng Xianke explained to Hong Kong media that this research is currently only an academic exploration result and is not related to the official export control policy that is about to be implemented.
However, the research was jointly developed by several authoritative think tanks that are deeply involved in national science and technology strategy and security research, such as the Institute of Innovation Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the Institute of Science and Technology Strategy Consulting of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Chinese Academy of Physics, and its strategic value remains prominent.
A list of 63 technologies has been released, covering quantum communication, electromagnetic catapults, and other technologies under Level 1 control.
The research team proposed the first relatively comprehensive export control technology identification framework in mainland China, and ultimately selected 63 technologies with strategic sensitivity or global competitiveness, covering fields such as advanced materials, quantum communication, AI hardware, energy systems, biotechnology, and aerospace engineering.
According to the paper evaluation, the technologies listed as Level 1 restricted export technologies (8.5 points or above) include: satellite quantum secure communication, electromagnetic catapult technology, solar cell related technologies, general-purpose miniaturized AI edge computers, rare earth waste tailings metal recycling technology, and advanced high-strength steel production technology for automobiles.
Other technologies include: graphdiene material preparation technology, ultraviolet and deep ultraviolet crystal preparation technology, ultra-large offshore wind turbine technology, space robots, high-performance carbon electrode preparation technology for perovskite solar cells, autonomous orbit determination technology for BeiDou-3 inter-satellite links, and free-space optical communication.
China's technology sector, characterized by "three parallel developments," urgently needs to establish a defense against technology outflow.
Research indicates that after decades of catching up, mainland China's overall technological development has shifted from being a complete "follower" to a situation of "three-way competition," with most countries "running alongside" and a few "leading." In fields such as quantum information, additive manufacturing, AI, and robotics, some technologies have already achieved international leadership. Given the severe external environment and the accelerating pace of a new round of technological revolution, scientifically and effectively selecting the directions for export-restricted technologies is of significant strategic importance for achieving technological self-reliance and safeguarding national security.
To address this fundamental strategic issue that has been rarely discussed publicly in mainland China in recent years, the research team constructed an operational process combining qualitative and quantitative methods, namely the "Survey-Quantitative-Screening-Supplementation-Evaluation-Grading" method (SMSSEV). This model combines patent analysis, expert consultation, and strategic assessment to evaluate the technology from three dimensions: necessity, feasibility, and impact.
The Chinese version of the assessment framework is constructed with reference to the US mechanism.
The research team mentioned in their paper that the framework partially references the export control mechanisms that the United States has long implemented. Through long-term development, the U.S. Department of Commerce has established a method that combines expert technical review with public comment to determine the technology directions and specific parameters for prohibiting or restricting exports.
The paper points out that the United States has historically focused not only on military or dual-use technologies, but also on two types of key technologies: one is the field in which developing countries, represented by China, are rapidly rising and have not yet achieved technological leadership but are expected to challenge the United States’ monopoly advantage, such as IC, supercomputing, and civilian nuclear power; the other is the cutting-edge basic technologies that are expected to determine the future technological and industrial landscape, such as 3D printing, brain-computer interfaces, and AI.
The South China Morning Post reported that the Chinese research team attempted to construct an assessment method adapted to its own development stage and industrial structure. The selection process comprehensively referenced existing lists of Chinese and foreign technologies, the International Patent Classification (IPC), technology gap models, and patent co-occurrence network analysis, and underwent multiple rounds of review by industry, government, academia, and experts. Taking advanced materials as an example, the team analyzed over 215,000 international patent records and used machine learning clustering models and network analysis to identify key technological nodes.
Peng Xianke emphasized that the final list of 63 technologies was not entirely generated by an algorithm, but rather "the result of a joint evaluation by patent selection and expert assessment."
The significance of this research extends beyond export policy, calling for accelerated institutional development.
The South China Morning Post believes that the significance of this study extends far beyond export policy itself. In the past, China's science and technology development policy focused primarily on technology import and addressing industrial shortcomings. However, as enterprises and research institutions have entered the global first tier in several cutting-edge fields, issues such as technological sovereignty, technological security, and the protection of key strategic technologies have now entered a stage of regular discussion in China.
The study also points out that the development of China's technology trade security system lags behind that of developed countries such as the US, UK, France, Germany, and Japan. These countries have established comprehensive technology export control systems after decades of development. Based on this research, the study recommends that relevant authorities focus on three key tasks from a top-level design perspective: tracking and predicting the direction of foreign export-restricted technologies and strengthening preventative measures; improving the selection process and methods for export-restricted technologies in China; and promoting the implementation of export control measures.
自川普首任任期對大陸發起貿易戰以來，美國聯合西方盟友持續收緊對陸高端技術准入限制，鎖定半導體、AI、量子計算、航太、超級電腦及各類軍民兩用技術，企圖遏制大陸高端製造與前沿科技發展。然而，隨著大陸在多項戰
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