Chinese SAC - FC-31/J-35 5th Gen Stealth Aircraft

Talks of inducting J 35 in paf are going on for more than 10 years....china was not interested in J 35 in the beginning.....it was designed to specifically meet Paf needs ....we will get whatever we want for this aircraft.....forget what all knowing Chinese bloggers say .
It was not designed specifically for PAF needs. It was a low priority project vs the J-20 because the latter was still being ramped up. There was always a medium weight Chinese fighter on the cards and both Chengdu and Shenyang along with one other institute had designs. PAF was aware of all of these designs from 2008 onwards including both formal and informal briefings.

Shenyang chose to focus on the export market(or rather was allowed to) knowing the J-20 ramp up time would mean no domestic customers.
 
It was not designed specifically for PAF needs. It was a low priority project vs the J-20 because the latter was still being ramped up. There was always a medium weight Chinese fighter on the cards and both Chengdu and Shenyang along with one other institute had designs. PAF was aware of all of these designs from 2008 onwards including both formal and informal briefings.

Shenyang chose to focus on the export market(or rather was allowed to) knowing the J-20 ramp up time would mean no domestic customers.
Unlike j20 the Chinese government was not funding j35 development till latter stages... Shenyang won't waste money if she has no foreseeable costumer.
 
Talks of inducting J 35 in paf are going on for more than 10 years....china was not interested in J 35 in the beginning.....it was designed to specifically meet Paf needs ....we will get whatever we want for this aircraft.....forget what all knowing Chinese bloggers say .
In 2017, then CAS ACM Sohail Aman stated in a speech that he asked Chinese for J-20 which they refused and offered FC-31, so he started Project Azm and a space program.

The current CAS said in a speech on 1st Jan, 2024, “foundation for acquiring J-31 Stealth Fighter aircraft has already been laid which is all set to become part of the PAF's fleet in the near future”. I think he will ensure it by March 2028.

I don't think China developed FC-31 into J-35 for PAF needs, though it may well be its first export customer. I also saw a tweet by a Turkish account regarding UAE pilot evaluating it and also Egypt's interest in it, though that is a different debate.
 
This of course is not the case (right now). But what I see is a similar to USA supremacist thinking developing in Chinese people ( not government policy as yet). This will eventually seep into their official thought process.

We need to act proactively so we don’t face 1990s kind of situation again and start reducing our dependence on China gradually.
I definitely agree on reducing dependency, but I'd disagree a bit on extrapolating from the US mentality to where China's heading.

The US works to control the world in all its aspects -- social, political, economic, etc -- and will penalize countries for straying from the key pillars. Not only that, but when the US inflicts sanctions on a country, other countries are compelled to follow those sanctions out of fear of being isolated or penalized by the US. So, if the US Pressler's you, then there's a high chance of the West following suit.

China, OTOH, views economic control, specifically supply chain and market dominance, as a tool for survival. They've historically always had the advantage in manufacturing high-quality goods at scale and low costs. Like, this goes back all the way to the 17th and 18th centuries. So, when the Europeans began trading with them, they (the Europeans) found that China was amassing a surplus while Europe was maintaining a deficit with China.

So, the Europeans went in and basically messed with Chinese society via opium, colonialist wars, and so on to basically scuttle that manufacturing edge.

Xi basically has the "FK THAT" mindset and wants to prevent or, if need be, properly deal with another imperialist situation. Lo and behold, Trump emerged as the next imperialist, carrying with him the American mentality of wanting to control everything and, in turn, denying China its right to rise.

So, for Pakistan, the issue here is that you'll never really please the US unless you take the locks off the front door. OTOH, with Beijing, there's always an opportunity to negotiate a place provided you do a damn good job negotiating and enforcing terms. However, CPEC proved that our leaders are incapable of doing so, but one can see Europe, Canada, Latin America, and even India tread this carefully and gradually get there.

Practically, the way I see it, there's nothing inherently wrong with procuring Chinese arms off-the-shelf or even licensing to produce them. However, we need to work out an arrangement with China to actually industrialize our country so that we can source more and more of the inputs that go into weapon systems, i.e., the alloys, the composites, the steel, the piping and wires, and so on.

The more of the upstream industries we build, the easier it will be for us to localize defence, even with foreign designs. For example, we could buy the next Chinese MBT design off the shelf, but with a deal to source like 70% of its value from within Pakistan via our own companies.

The CPC gradually wants to move the Chinese economy off of the low-end manufacturing work and into high-end stuff. We need to keep a close eye on those policy changes and, in turn, be sure to sync our own private-public partnerships to leverage them by emerging as new suppliers for that low-end work.

This will allow us to secure CNCs, tooling, jigs, etc, from the Chinese for that work and build our economy up. In parallel, we should invest in our own R&D to carry ourselves higher up the industrial advancement ladder, but working with the Chinese in low-level stuff gives us a strong foundation.

The problem, sadly, is that our leadership (as a whole, not pointing at anyone in particular) has its head buried in the sand, fingers up its own rear, and eyes glazed with sugar. It doesn't actually know how to govern properly, much less build strong relations.

However, with the right chops, we can productively work with the Chinese, NOT the Americans. The more competent we become, the bigger the threat we'll be to the US. Whereas with the Chinese, we need to do a better job and demonstrate that we are a real independent country, but sadly, our top leaders decide that it's a good idea to be honoured guests at the White House.
 
Utterly bizzarre logic. By this logic we would not have got J-10C.

China has many more important considerations then pricing the J-35 for export.

Hardly bizarre when your counterpoint is logically incorrect.

PAF got J-10CE after India placed orders for Rafales.

PAF will not get J-35E until after India places orders for 5th gen. It is not wise to create instability. What does PAF need 5th gen for before India? To balance out IAF's quantitative edge?

Regardless, your counterpoint only proves my logic.
 
I definitely agree on reducing dependency, but I'd disagree a bit on extrapolating from the US mentality to where China's heading.

The US works to control the world in all its aspects -- social, political, economic, etc -- and will penalize countries for straying from the key pillars. Not only that, but when the US inflicts sanctions on a country, other countries are compelled to follow those sanctions out of fear of being isolated or penalized by the US. So, if the US Pressler's you, then there's a high chance of the West following suit.

China, OTOH, views economic control, specifically supply chain and market dominance, as a tool for survival. They've historically always had the advantage in manufacturing high-quality goods at scale and low costs. Like, this goes back all the way to the 17th and 18th centuries. So, when the Europeans began trading with them, they (the Europeans) found that China was amassing a surplus while Europe was maintaining a deficit with China.

So, the Europeans went in and basically messed with Chinese society via opium, colonialist wars, and so on to basically scuttle that manufacturing edge.

Xi basically has the "FK THAT" mindset and wants to prevent or, if need be, properly deal with another imperialist situation. Lo and behold, Trump emerged as the next imperialist, carrying with him the American mentality of wanting to control everything and, in turn, denying China its right to rise.

So, for Pakistan, the issue here is that you'll never really please the US unless you take the locks off the front door. OTOH, with Beijing, there's always an opportunity to negotiate a place provided you do a damn good job negotiating and enforcing terms. However, CPEC proved that our leaders are incapable of doing so, but one can see Europe, Canada, Latin America, and even India tread this carefully and gradually get there.

Practically, the way I see it, there's nothing inherently wrong with procuring Chinese arms off-the-shelf or even licensing to produce them. However, we need to work out an arrangement with China to actually industrialize our country so that we can source more and more of the inputs that go into weapon systems, i.e., the alloys, the composites, the steel, the piping and wires, and so on.

The more of the upstream industries we build, the easier it will be for us to localize defence, even with foreign designs. For example, we could buy the next Chinese MBT design off the shelf, but with a deal to source like 70% of its value from within Pakistan via our own companies.

The CPC gradually wants to move the Chinese economy off of the low-end manufacturing work and into high-end stuff. We need to keep a close eye on those policy changes and, in turn, be sure to sync our own private-public partnerships to leverage them by emerging as new suppliers for that low-end work.

This will allow us to secure CNCs, tooling, jigs, etc, from the Chinese for that work and build our economy up. In parallel, we should invest in our own R&D to carry ourselves higher up the industrial advancement ladder, but working with the Chinese in low-level stuff gives us a strong foundation.

The problem, sadly, is that our leadership (as a whole, not pointing at anyone in particular) has its head buried in the sand, fingers up its own rear, and eyes glazed with sugar. It doesn't actually know how to govern properly, much less build strong relations.

However, with the right chops, we can productively work with the Chinese, NOT the Americans. The more competent we become, the bigger the threat we'll be to the US. Whereas with the Chinese, we need to do a better job and demonstrate that we are a real independent country, but sadly, our top leaders decide that it's a good idea to be honoured guests at the White House.
The problem is corruption. Many Pakistani politicians focus more on getting a green card from the US than develop Pakistan. Pakistan need to kick out those people. They need to work for Pakistanis. Any Pakistani that wants to serve Pakistan need to give up their US citizenship.
 
SAC's FC-31 project was not the competing 5th gen program against CAC's J-20.

As we all know, the J-20 won the competition long before 2001 prototype was shown in 2011.

All the J-xy 5th gen program hints and talk before year 2011 described SAC's program, called "Snowy Owl" was a stealthy flanker design with canards and horizontal stabilisers. So basically triplane configuration similar to Su-33/J-15 and those other flankers with canards.

Of course the SAC Snowy Owl was also stealthy but had two additional sets of moving control surfaces compared to the J-20 and obviously many other differences whether advantageous or not over J-20. This fighter would have made it to prototype stage although the prototype or experimental aircraft is still not revealed today.

It looks something like this:

1767402477528.png



1767403109273.png

It was actually quite a bit larger than even a J-20. SAC's on the left and J-20 on the right:

1767402604091.png

This program's first leaker reveal had accurate CGI before the wind tunnel and model images were more officially disclosed and the CGI that showed the configuration and size was a set that included this image which is the one that remains online. A few of the CGI artists that leak real things they know the actual look always provide some hints and some misdirection. You'll notice that the intake of the actual aircraft is different.

1767402994717.png

Anyway this program was rejected and there was a lot of online discussion when it was rejected, hints being dropped that Chengdu is the winner before the 2001 prototype of J-20 was revealed. The Chinese consensus back in the late 2000s was one of SAC superiority over CAC. Fans also tended to favor SAC because they were the producer of the J-11 series which was widely considered far superior to the J-10 despite J-10 being regarded warmly by Chinese due to being a more Chinese developed project compared to J-11.

Insiders who hinted that Chengdu won the competition was met with some discouragement from fans but they also reassured watchers that CAC's program completely beats SAC's. SAC's was also considered to be a very high end and expensive fighter and not quite as suitable for China's needs. It also wasn't better than CAC's.

Maybe it was that Snow Owl didn't have as much geometric stealth compared to J-20. Either way, it was clear that PLAAF's requirements for large and long range weapons dictated size and SAC's solution at least to the naked eye did not manage to achieve J-20's level of stealth. CAC also held DSI technology which SAC lacked but they would have been forced to share knowledge anyway.

FC-31 was entirely a SAC backed project aiming at the export market. They did a quite Lockheed style 5th gen copy which KF-21 and TF-X both apply as well. Smaller fighter which PLAAF wasn't interested in until the carrier program matured and progressed so well. Maybe SAC planned it but they couldn't have known PLAN's carrier program would be so quick. Luck would have it for SAC that China would so quickly require a smaller than J-20 5th gen platform for its newer carriers that use electromagnetic launch.

FC-31 evolved into J-35 carrier program and from there, PLAAF's interest in a land based J-35A version was surprising since China has J-20 already and 6th gens on the horizon. I suppose the PLANAF only fee wouldn't quite cover J-35 development costs and a land based version could be exported. Such would be the thinking behind J-35A program - PLAAF can benefit with ground up clean sheet design of equipment J-20 doesn't consider and a platform fit for export.

J-20A no doubt is more capable than J-35A in most ways which would suggest J-35A must be made either cheaper for PLAAF or it is a platform that will be exported to make money and strategic ties. As the only other 5th gen on the market (F-35 being the other), it is a political and economic instrument.
 

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We have seen J-35/J-35A, now it's the J-35AE's turn.
 
Unlike j20 the Chinese government was not funding j35 development till latter stages... Shenyang won't waste money if she has no foreseeable costumer.
If you don't know, don't talk nonsense.

October 2009: SAC self-funded and launched the "FC-31" project, targeting the international export market (the entire international market, not specifically customized for Pakistan).

October 2012: The first FC-31 prototype successfully completed its maiden flight and participated in the Zhuhai Airshow that year as a "concept aircraft." Chinese media reported on it using the name "J-31."

November 2014: The FC-31 participated in the Zhuhai Airshow as a physical aircraft and performed flight demonstrations. In news reports on the PLA's website, the PLA referred to it as "J-31." This meant that the PLA officially acknowledged its involvement in the project.

The J-31 project underwent significant upgrades in its subsequent development. Therefore, the PLA renamed it "J-35."
 
Any export J-35 will still be an extremely expensive fighter.

If China is okay exporting J-35 even as a separate export model, PAF will certainly be a key strategic recipient, regardless of financing. Of course China doesn't give things away for free but the terms of price and package will no doubt be extremely favorable to Pakistan.

This would be an issue with SAC though. If other customers are aware of Pakistan's inability to afford full price J-35E, they will be less willing to pay full price, presenting SAC and Chinese government with a conundrum. On one hand they want to sell for profit to wealthier nations like UAE, Saudi Arabia, whoever is low or measured risk but also want to supply Pakistan.

Therefore I believe Pakistan will not be offered J-35E even if such a machine were to be made available to market until after India buys a 5th gen fighter. That would give China and Pakistan a reason and plausible deniability on price which usually is kept secret anyway but if India doesn't get a 5th gen, no other potential customer is going to believe Pakistan is paying full price for J-35E.

Sooner or later, India will provide a 5th gen fighter. Whether it's AMCA, Su-57 or something else.

At that point it'll be in China's own interest to supply Pakistan. Even if it's a downgraded variant
 
If you don't know, don't talk nonsense.

October 2009: SAC self-funded and launched the "FC-31" project, targeting the international export market (the entire international market, not specifically customized for Pakistan).

October 2012: The first FC-31 prototype successfully completed its maiden flight and participated in the Zhuhai Airshow that year as a "concept aircraft." Chinese media reported on it using the name "J-31."

November 2014: The FC-31 participated in the Zhuhai Airshow as a physical aircraft and performed flight demonstrations. In news reports on the PLA's website, the PLA referred to it as "J-31." This meant that the PLA officially acknowledged its involvement in the project.

The J-31 project underwent significant upgrades in its subsequent development. Therefore, the PLA renamed it "J-35."
In essence you are agreeing with my post ....why calling it nonsense ?
..
 
In essence you are agreeing with my post ....why calling it nonsense ?
SAC is a state-owned enterprise.
It is a wholly-owned subsidiary of AVIC, which is wholly owned by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). SASAC represents the Chinese government in controlling all central state-owned enterprises in China.
The Chinese Constitution stipulates that the Chinese government = the State Council of China. SASAC is a special institution directly under the State Council of China.

Therefore, projects invested in by SAC represent indirect investments by the Chinese government.

The Chinese military is not subordinate to the Chinese government. They are neither loyal to nor managed by the Chinese government. The Chinese government has no power to control the Chinese military.
The Ministry of National Defense of China, a subordinate agency of the State Council, is a military diplomatic institution. While nominally under the State Council, it is in practice directly managed by the Central Military Commission (CMC). The Chinese Ministry of National Defense has no command authority over the Chinese armed forces.

The PLA became involved in the project after the first flight of the FC-31. This project has been a Chinese government project from beginning to end.
Unlike j20 the Chinese government was not funding j35 development till latter stages... Shenyang won't waste money if she has no foreseeable costumer.
If you don't know, don't talk nonsense.
 
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Sooner or later, India will provide a 5th gen fighter. Whether it's AMCA, Su-57 or something else.

At that point it'll be in China's own interest to supply Pakistan. Even if it's a downgraded variant

Su-57 or maybe even F-35 but definitely not AMCA. AMCA will take India decades to develop to a point they can put it into service. They do not have any capability bringing every single subsystem onboard even to a 4.5 gen level.

Even if India can develop and build a 5th gen shell for AMCA, they do not have subsystems that can match 4.5 gen fighters. They have yet to put a complete fighter AESA into service. They haven't even fielded Uttam for Tejas service yet. It's unlikely to be as good as European, Chinese, American or even Russian second gen AESA/PESA on those 4.5 gen fighters. No engine either for AMCA unless they want to import M88 or Al-41 depending on size of AMCA. They can only put a 4.5 gen engine on to it. AMCA will be 4.5 gen everything in a 5th gen body and that's assuming they can develop and manufacture suitable metamaterial 5th gen coatings.

It would be far more effective for IAF to buy Su-57 or F-35. Even buying KF-21 would be more effective for combat than AMCA decades later. It would be better for India and Indian MIC if they started domestication though.

WRT Su-57, PAF would need to be armed with J-35 to balance Su-57 and high quantities of Rafales. J-10CE would not be enough against so many Rafales.

India has so much more money, an arms race is a default loss for Pakistan. It would be silly for Pakistan to initiate arms race by purchasing J-35 first.
 

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