Chinese SAC - FC-31/J-35 5th Gen Stealth Aircraft

Michael said:
1. Based on the current situation analysis, SAC will not be able to reach a total production volume of 40 J-35 Air Force versions by 2026. So, you can analyze the answer to your question yourself.

2. If PAF has already placed a purchase order with CATIC for the FC-31/J-35 and plans to begin delivery in 2025-2026, then CATIC should have already placed purchase orders with various parts suppliers. However, in reality, CATIC has not placed any purchase orders with parts suppliers.
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"CATIC has not placed any purchase orders with parts suppliers."

How can you be certain of this unless you work at CATIC?
 

OK, you seem to have many well connected friends. It could be that he does not know all ofd what has been ordered, and it does seem strange he would keep you up to date on what I can only assume is very sensitive information.
 
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No one is asking you to reveal anyone's identity, we do not care that much.

What I am confused about is that you earlier claimed CATIC had not ordered any part for J-35 as your friend had told you this. You now state that he does not know details.

So essentially we agree that the word of your friend, whoever he may be, cannot be counted as a reliable source when it comes to CATICs ordering of parts for a sensitive military programme.

Hence it is more then entirely feasible, as some members have pointed out, that an order has been made.

Also, I am aware English is not your first language, but may help your argument by keeping replies shorter and to the point.
 
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Michael said:
If CATIC has already placed an order with the supplier, his name will appear in the sign-off column.
He will then tell me.
This is not confidential information.

Since your speech quoted my content, please delete the relevant historical post.
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So someone signing off supplier orders for a 5th Gen jet not in frontline service yet and telling someone who then posts it on the internet is "not confidential information".

That is very interesting, China seems to be much more open then any country in the world on this matter.

I sign off orders for my company (very boring tech stuff) and am bound by strict rules.
 
Yasser76 said:
So someone signing off supplier orders for a 5th Gen jet not in frontline service yet and telling someone who then posts it on the internet is "not confidential information".

That is very interesting, China seems to be much more open then any country in the world on this matter.

I sign off orders for my company (very boring tech stuff) and am bound by strict rules.
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Before continuing the discussion, please delete the previous post, especially the part that quoted my speech. Thank you.
 
Michael said:
Before continuing the discussion, please delete the previous post, especially the part that quoted my speech. Thank you.
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Done, maybe next time be more careful in what you claim or post?
 
Yasser76 said:
Done, maybe next time be more careful in what you claim or post?
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The military industry is enormous. The production of a complete modern fighter jet involves millions of workers and technicians. No one can guarantee that this vast group can remain completely confidential.

In cities densely populated with military-industrial enterprises, this kind of information often comes up in everyday conversations.
For example:
Factory X recently received another order from the Navy, and everyone is busy working overtime...
Factory X recently saw many soldiers standing guard...
Factory X, in addition to producing certain civilian products, is also producing certain weapons...
This information is commonplace. It's not confidential. You will see a lot of such information on the Chinese Internet.
But in our conversations, we won't discuss specific details like equipment performance, order quantities, and delivery times, nor will we provide any evidence such as pictures or videos.

To foreign military enthusiasts, this information may seem confidential. However, in reality, much of this information is publicly available, but it rarely receives attention.
========================
If CATIC places an order with them, they might say to me, "小巴的订单来了，我们要开始忙了。" This is a very ordinary conversation and does not involve any confidential information.
 
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ARMalik said:
In my opinion, PL16 is NOT an advance variant of PL15 since it does match with the common naming terminologies used by Chinese military.

I believe that PL-16 in fact is a new missile of its own with specific parameters.
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I've mentioned this over a month ago.
Yasser76 said:
No one is asking you to reveal anyone's identity, we do not care that much.

What I am confused about is that you earlier claimed CATIC had not ordered any part for J-35 as your friend had told you this. You now state that he does not know details.

So essentially we agree that the word of your friend, whoever he may be, cannot be counted as a reliable source when it comes to CATICs ordering of parts for a sensitive military programme.

Hence it is more then entirely feasible, as some members have pointed out, that an order has been made.

Also, I am aware English is not your first language, but may help your argument by keeping replies shorter and to the point.
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There are two scenarios here. Chinese manufacturing runs on fast speed. Their pulse manufacturing where a J-20 like complicated build is done on average 4 days per jet, requiring massive parts inventories to exist much in advance. If you are producing 100+ jets per year, that's estimated 8 Jets per month and that also super complicated 5th gen, you can't afford to wait for "parts orders" to arrive. The orders are done a year+ in advance under "pulse" manufacturing or in the West we call it "dynamic supply chain".

Now, we know that Chinese target for 2025 for J-35 is near 40 aircraft. This is also using current supply chain and manufacturing. For next year, the estimates I heard are ~70 production aircraft. End of 2026 or in 2027, a pulse production line for J-35 will start moving towards 100+ aircraft production annually.

Now, if next year's target is ~70 aircraft, all parts have been ordered and will be received and computer tagged in the inventories, this year before the year ends. Similarly, any 3-d printing requiring for manufacturing will be done now. You can't print-manufacture parts when you are producing one jet in 4-6 days.

Now, for Pakistan, *if* we get anything in 2026, it will be around 10 aircraft or less, as batch 1, since the priority is PLAAF and PLAN. There are a few things different in the "P" version compared to the standard PLAAF version. Those are essentially Radars with export power, some sensors and possibly different engines. How hard is it for the Chinese manufacturing to give out 10 existing radars with just reduced output for export models? If that's the case. Similarly, Chinese system builds hundreds of engines annually. If different, Ten engines or less can be provided immediately. Every manufacturer keeps an inventory of products.

Now, Pakistan's product build, the J-35E or "P", can be built under another type of manufacturing that is very popular in the US as well as in China. It's called "JITM" or "Just in Time Manufacturing". You source the differential parts right before you start the build. Getting just 10 engines from an engine manufacturer and 10 Radar sets (that is, if these are truly different), is a piece of cake for a system like China. And if the Radars are the same or engines are the same, we'll just be given the first batch from the production line either way.
 
Michael said:
The military industry is enormous. The production of a complete modern fighter jet involves millions of workers and technicians. No one can guarantee that this vast group can remain completely confidential.

In cities densely populated with military-industrial enterprises, this kind of information often comes up in everyday conversations.
For example:
Factory X recently received another order from the Navy, and everyone is busy working overtime...
Factory X recently saw many soldiers standing guard...
Factory X, in addition to producing certain civilian products, is also producing certain weapons...
This information is commonplace. It's not confidential. You will see a lot of such information on the Chinese Internet.
But in our conversations, we won't discuss specific details like equipment performance, order quantities, and delivery times, nor will we provide any evidence such as pictures or videos.

To foreign military enthusiasts, this information may seem confidential. However, in reality, much of this information is publicly available, but it rarely receives attention.
========================
If CATIC places an order with them, they might say to me, "小巴的订单来了，我们要开始忙了。" This is a very ordinary conversation and does not involve any confidential information.
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So you have literally contradicted your earlier post. It is very confusing reading your posts as often the first 75% makes irrelevant points.

You earlier claimed that you would know if CATIC had ordered 40 planes as "Your friend" informs you.

Now you claim

"But in our conversations, we won't discuss specific details like equipment performance, order quantities, and delivery times, nor will we provide any evidence such as pictures or videos."

Can you understand my reason for being sceptical now of your claim of having some insider knowledge of the J-35/FC-31 project?
 
Yasser76 said:
You earlier claimed that you would know if CATIC had ordered 40 planes as "Your friend" informs you.
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I never said I knew whether CATIC had ordered 40 aircraft. You can try to verify my statements.
1. I would know for sure whether they had placed the order, but I would not provide a specific number.
2. Regarding the PAF's purchase of 40 FC-31/J-35 aircraft, this is my personal analysis based on the relevant circumstances.
These are two separate viewpoints and cannot be combined...
 
Michael said:
I never said I knew whether CATIC had ordered 40 aircraft. You can try to verify my statements.
1. I would know for sure whether they had placed the order, but I would not provide a specific number.
2. Regarding the PAF's purchase of 40 FC-31/J-35 aircraft, this is my personal analysis based on the relevant circumstances.
These are two separate viewpoints and cannot be combined...
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Sorry, your argument and sources seem to be confusing and change post by post.

Let us leave it at that, but feel your "friend" may be just as reliable as everyone elses "friends"

Have a good day sir
 
Yasser76 said:
Sorry, your argument and sources seem to be confusing and change post by post.

Let us leave it at that, but feel your "friend" may be just as reliable as everyone elses "friends"

Have a good day sir
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Maybe you can start by reviewing the relevant content here. This section documents many of the earlier controversies.

I don't have the authority to edit my previous posts, so this historical content may help you clarify the issue.

Michael

Post in thread 'Chinese SAC - FC-31/J-35 5th Gen Stealth Aircraft'

The first batch of WS19 has started production at the factory
The first customer of J35 will be the PLAAF
--------------From 624
 
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