Commentary: Are Exports Holding China’s Economy ‘Hostage’?

[Nimble]

India ranked as South Africa’s largest source of imported vehicles. Indian manufacturers supplied 219,796 units to South Africa in 2025, representing 56.2% of total light-vehicle imports. China ranked second with 91,326 vehicles, or 23.3% of imports

Nissan Turns to India-Made Vehicles to Rebuild South African Sales

Nissan is shifting to an import-led strategy in South Africa after selling its Pretoria plant to China’s Chery earlier this year. The Japanese automaker launched the India-made Tekton SUV in South Africa on Sept. 21 and plans to expand its imported lineup with the X-Trail, Navara and Patrol...

www.ecofinagency.com

@Nimble

Great news never knew this...

 

[Indos]

Despite all that your economy is still going down the gutter lol. What exactly are your industrialists gaining from pumping subsidised goods into foreign markets and barely making anything on them? Huge export numbers look nice until you realise the margins are razor thin. Meanwhile Indian automakers Tata Motors and M&M together won orders for 105,000 commercial vehicles from Indonesia beating established Japanese and Chinese automakers there.

Update Pikap Kopdes Impor India: 12 Ribu Unit Didistribusikan - Sektor Riil

Sebanyak 12.000 unit diantara sudah didistribusikan kepada Kopdes.

www.bloombergtechnoz.com

More likely due to bribery

Indonesia itself has the same products and it has been pretty long under heated debate on TV, Parliament

 

[Indos]

Bribery or maybe Prabowo try to get a deal with India since India has huge trade deficit to Indonesia for long

The buyer is one state owned company, PT Agrinas ( Palm oil Industry)

 

[indo17787]

Bribery or maybe Prabowo try to get a deal with India since India has huge trade deficit to Indonesia for long

Of course we run a trade deficit with Indonesia lol. Look at what we’re buying from you: coal, coke, briquettes, crude palm oil and other vegetable oils. Basically raw materials and inputs we need in huge quantities. The problem on the other side is you simply don’t have a domestic market big enough to buy Indian goods at anything remotely close to that volume.

 

[Indos]

Of course we run a trade deficit with Indonesia lol. Look at what we’re buying from you: coal, coke, briquettes, crude palm oil and other vegetable oils. Basically raw materials and inputs we need in huge quantities. The problem on the other side is you simply don’t have a domestic market big enough to buy Indian goods at anything remotely close to that volume.

Check OECD website

 

[indo17787]

More likely due to bribery

Indonesia itself has the same products and it has been pretty long under heated debate on TV, Parliament

Go read what Agrinas itself said. They need around 160,000 vehicles for the cooperative programme and the kind of 4x4 pickup they need isn't locally produced there. Most of what Indonesia makes in this segment is 4x2. These vehicles are supposed to run around villages, plantations, farms and crappy rural roads carrying stuff, so they specifically wanted proper 4WD workhorses.

And this is exactly the kind of vehicle India has been building forever.

That's why 105,000 out of those 160,000 went to Tata and Mahindra. Tata got 70,000 CV orders: 35k Yodhas and 35k Ultra T.7 trucks and Mahindra another 35k Scorpio Pik Ups. Japanese and Chinese vehicles are supposed to make up part of the remaining requirement.

There's a scale problem too. Your own industry guys put Indonesia's normal 4x4 pickup market at only around 26k a year and light trucks at something like 3k a month. Agrinas also said normal domestic production was around 70k units and suddenly asking local companies to cough up this kind of volume could screw with vehicles they're already supplying to other logistics customers.

Price was another reason Agrinas gave for going outside Indonesia. GAIKINDO obviously wasn't happy and argued Indonesian manufacturers could compete if taxes and regulations were equal. That's their argument with Agrinas, not mine End result is still 105,000 Indian vehicles.

And have you actually looked at the Scorpio they're buying? 2.2L mHawk diesel, 320 Nm, proper 4WD, 4Low and mechanical locking diff. Nothing fancy about it. It's basically a diesel workhorse made to get worked on bad roads while carrying a load.

Funny thing is your own journalists already drove this thing in Indonesia years ago. Okezone took the Scorpio through mud, rocks and off-road sections around Bogor in 4L and liked the high seating position, visibility and how it handled the rocky stuff. GridOto threw it at rocks, climbs, side slopes, deep water and rough tracks and it got through them. Another Indonesian review praised the low end diesel torque under load, visibility and the fact that it works on both normal roads and rough terrain.

Even when Mahindra first brought it there, Indonesian auto media were putting it alongside the Hilux, Triton, Ranger, D-Max and Navara and pointing out the price difference.

That's what makes the whole thing funny. Indonesia already has a good auto industry. Japanese companies have been there for decades and Chinese companies are pouring in now too. Yet when you suddenly needed a ridiculous number of rugged 4x4 commercial vehicles, there was still a hole in your local product lineup.

India already had that exact shit sitting on production lines.

105,000 out of 160,000. That's basically the whole story

 

[Indos]

Dude, Indonesia has huge automotive Industry, including the component producers, it is just one of them

That huge order is possible because it is ordered by our state owned company, just one, PT Agrinas (we have around 1000 SOE). More likely under Prabowo direction

 

[indo17787]

View attachment 216676
View attachment 216677

Check OECD website

Dude you’re seriously overestimating how much India cares about selling to markets like Indonesia Our biggest money is in the US and Europe.

US alone bought more than $103 billion worth of Indian goods in 2025 according to their own Census data and India ended up with something like $60 billion goods surplus with them. Despite Trump's 50% tariff drama, we still crossed $100 billion.

Europe is the other big one. They bought around €69.5 billion from India in 2025 while selling us around €48.9 billion. Again, India is sitting on a €20 billion+ surplus there. And now the EU FTA negotiations are already done. So obviously that’s where we’re going to chase more business.

China? Lol I don’t expect much from them anyway. Whenever Indian products start getting somewhere in China they have no problem putting up barriers. They literally extended anti-dumping duties on Indian single-mode optical fibre for another 5 years, going as high as 30.6%. Our finished pharma companies have been trying to get proper access to their market for years and still barely sell anything there. Pharma exports to China were only around $287 million in FY26.

Still, even with all that, some Indian manufactured stuff is somehow starting to creep into China

Indian PCBA exports to China went from just $36 million to around $1.5 BILLION in FY26. That's more than 40 times in 1 year lol.

Engineering goods are moving too. India's engineering exports to China jumped something like 74% YoY in June and overall Indian exports to China are up nearly 40% in the first 5 months of this FY.

So yeah, if Chinese companies want Indian PCBAs, engineering goods or anything else, we'll happily sell it to them But am I sitting here expecting China to suddenly become some wonderful open market for Indian products? Hell no.

US and Europe are where the serious Indian export money already is. China is extra business whenever we can get through the door.

 

[bengalcdn]

Dude you’re seriously overestimating how much India cares about selling to markets like Indonesia Our biggest money is in the US and Europe.

US alone bought more than $103 billion worth of Indian goods in 2025 according to their own Census data and India ended up with something like $60 billion goods surplus with them. Despite Trump's 50% tariff drama, we still crossed $100 billion.

Europe is the other big one. They bought around €69.5 billion from India in 2025 while selling us around €48.9 billion. Again, India is sitting on a €20 billion+ surplus there. And now the EU FTA negotiations are already done. So obviously that’s where we’re going to chase more business.

China? Lol I don’t expect much from them anyway. Whenever Indian products start getting somewhere in China they have no problem putting up barriers. They literally extended anti-dumping duties on Indian single-mode optical fibre for another 5 years, going as high as 30.6%. Our finished pharma companies have been trying to get proper access to their market for years and still barely sell anything there. Pharma exports to China were only around $287 million in FY26.

Still, even with all that, some Indian manufactured stuff is somehow starting to creep into China

Indian PCBA exports to China went from just $36 million to around $1.5 BILLION in FY26. That's more than 40 times in 1 year lol.

Engineering goods are moving too. India's engineering exports to China jumped something like 74% YoY in June and overall Indian exports to China are up nearly 40% in the first 5 months of this FY.

So yeah, if Chinese companies want Indian PCBAs, engineering goods or anything else, we'll happily sell it to them But am I sitting here expecting China to suddenly become some wonderful open market for Indian products? Hell no.

US and Europe are where the serious Indian export money already is. China is extra business whenever we can get through the door.

lol like all Indian paid trolls you talk big and type nonsense. If all you claim
Is so true, can you explain why millions of Indians are running away to Canada, Australia, Us l, Germany etc using all kinds of scans like marriage fraud, student visa fraud etc