CPEC News and Discussions

[arjunk]

Iran + Afg + India (mostly the former) are sabotaging CPEC to divert Chinese investment through Chabahar instead of Gwadar. Pakistan must teach Iran a lesson.

BLA released the latest video of its training, it was geolocated to a camp in Iran.

While we all know about Afghanistan and India, people often overlook the role of Iran in sponsoring terrorism against Pakistani people and Chinese engineers. Iran doesn't just support BLA, it also supports Zainaboun terrorists in KPK.

Other 'Muslim' countries, be it the Afghans, Persians or Arabs are obessed with ethno-nationalist racism as a coping mechanism for their humiliation by the west.

Iran is no exception. Remember it was the Iranians, not Indians, who first launched missiles on Pakistan. Iran wants Pakistan to be another Lebanon, Iraq or Syria under its thumb as a vassal state. The Iranians are very friendly towards India and blocked international resolutions condeming Indian war crimes against Kashmiri civilians.

Pakistan needs to get rid of this cucked mentality, where any munafiq country can label itself as 'muslim' and automatically gain our sympathy. We need to stop cracking down on JuA until Iran does the same with BLA (hint: They won't, unless we force them to.)

We need to first purge Pakistan of Iranian influence before taking regular kinetic action against Iran.

Iran is militarily no challenge for Pakistan, but in the proxy domain Iran is ahead of us because Pakistani leadership is docile and complacent, castrated by their cucked mentality to Iran and their refusal to clamp down on Iranian influence in Pakistan. Only recently did they grow a pair and designate Zainaboun as a terror group, but Parachinar has already bled and hundreds lost their lives.

I understand if clamping down on Afghan influence is difficult owing to ethnic and religious ties, but for gods sake Iranian influence despite the absence of any demographic advantage has been allowed to grow unchecked. Our Shias are very patriotic but their patriotism is being targeted by Iran who is hell bent on waging a sectarian 'cold war' inside Muslim countries (I myself reject sectarianism but condemn Iran's exporting of it).

On the Chinese Stance:

The average Chinese engineer will be scared of working where his life is under threat . Chinese lives are safe in Iranian Balochistan but not Pakistani Balochistan, because BLA is an Iran-based Indian sponsored terrorist outfit.

China is not like the US or Russia. Chinese foreign policy is extremely docile and reactive, they will likely never muster the will to strike the India/Iran-based facilities of terrorists who target Chinese civilians. Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh and Taiwan are exceptions only because China views these areas as their own territory occupied by a foreign or rebel government.

The most the Chinese have done so far is push to deploy their own soldiers to Pakistan and free Pakistani units up for operations elsewhere - but this is a foolish idea as after American drone strikes, Pakistani people vehemently despise the idea of foreign soldiers operating on our soil and shooting our own people. Note that this sentiment is limited to counter terrorism ops, most people would NOT mind a PLAN/PLAAF/PLA/PLRF base in Gwadar to CONVENTIONALLY counter India/America in the Arabian Sea+IOR.

A Chinese deployment would also fuel the BLA's commie narrative of foreign exploitation, as well as the American narrative that Pakistan cannot safeguard its own nukes from terrorists.

So yeah, unless the Chinese themselves are willing to address the source of the problem in Iran and India, or fund a Pakistani operation against Iran/India on China's behalf, nothing substantial will change. Even in the unlikely event Iran/India succeeds and China abandons Pakistan and moves CPEC to Afg/Iran the CIA/RAW will come into action and divert BLA, ISKP, and factions of the Afghan Taliban to attack Chinese engineers in that region. Then China will be left isolated and friendless in the region.

What the Chinese CAN and SHOULD do is
1) Pre-Operation: Help Pakistan sever Indian and Iranian support for BLA/BRAS terrorists.

2) Operation: Support a zarb-e-azb type op in Balochistan

3) Post-Operation (Most Important): Help Pakistan set up rehabilitation programs to implement lasting social change in Balochistan. The Chinese did it in Xinjiang, Pakistan did it in FATA, the combined expertise and money of both countries should be utilised. Don't let idiots like Mahrang Baloch, Manzoor Pashteen and Adil Raja/Imran Khan spread terror sympathy for their own personal political gain.

BLA's domestic support comes from resentment againt the tribal system in Balochistan. But if Pakistan clamps down on the tribal system it will cause a 100x larger insurgency (compounded by existing Indian-Iranian channels of support for BLA/BRAS). UNTIL these foreign channels of support and safe heavens are not shut down by China/Pakistan through economic and military detterence, a large scale counter terror op and removal of thet tribal system is impossible, and THE BALOCHISTAN INSURGENCY AND ATTACKS ON CHINESE PEOPLE WILL NOT STOP.

@RescueRanger @Oscar @Michael

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Here's an update for CPEC 1.0 as of October 2024.

CPEC: PM Nawaz Sharif's $62 billion gift to Pakistan - List of completed projects

​

-	Project Name	Date Completed	Government	Cost	Status
01	Pilot Project of Digital Terrestrial Multimedia Broadcast (DTMB)​	April 2015	PML-N	$4 million	Completed
02​	1,320MW Sahiwal Coal-fired Power Plant​	28 October 2017​	PML-N​	$1.9122 billion​	Operational​
03	1,320 MW Coal-fired Power Plant at Port Qasim Karachi​	25 April 2018	PML-N	$1.9122 billion	Operational
04	1,320 MW China Hub Coal Power Project, Hub Balochistan​	17 Aug 2019	PTI	$1.9122 billion	Operational
05	660 MW Engro Thar Coal Power Project​	10 July 2019	PTI	$995.4 million	Operational
06	1,000 MW Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park (Bahawalpur)​	400 MW project: ? August 2016	PML-N	$520 million / $781 million	First Phase: Operation Second Phase: Implementation
07	50 MW Hydro China Dawood Wind Farm, Gharo, Thatta​	5 April 2017	PML-N	$112.65 million	Operational
08	100 MW UEP Wind Farm, Jhimpir, Thatta​	16 June 2017	PML-N	$250 million	Operational
09	50 MW Sachal Wind Farm Jhimpir, Thatta​	11 April 2017	PML-N	$134 million	Operational
10	100 MW Three Gorges Second and Third Wind Power Project​	Second Wind Farm: 30 June 2018 Third Wind Farm: 9 July 2018	PML-N	$150 million	Operational
11	Cross Border Optical Fiber Cable (Khunjrab - Rawalpindi)​	13 July 2018	PML-N	$44 million	Completed
12	Peshawar-Karachi Motorway (Multan-Sukkur Section)​	05 November 2019	PTI	$2.889 billion	Completed
13	Gwadar Smart Port City Master Plan​	05 November 2019	PTI	$4 million	Completed
14	KKH Road Phase II (Havelian - Thakot Section)​	Havelian - Mansehra Section: 18 November 2019 Mansehra - Thakot Section: 28 July 2020.	PTI	$1.315 billion	Completed
15	Orange Line Metro Train - Lahore​	25 October 2020	PTI	$1.626 billion	Completed
16	Development of Port and Free Zone​	7 April 2021	PTI	$300 million	Completed
17	Matiari to Lahore ±660 KV HVDC Transmission Line Project​	1 September 2021	PTI	$1.65834 billion	Operational
18	Pak-China Technical and Vocational Institute at Gwadar​	30 September 2021	PTI	$10 million	Completed
19	Hakla - D.I Khan Motorway​	05 January 2022	PTI	Construction: Rs.110,208 million • Land Acquisition, properties compensation, and shifting of utilities: Rs.11,973 million • Total: Rs.122,181 million	Completed
20	Gwadar Eastbay Expressway​	3 June 2022	PML-N	$179 million	Completed
21	720 MW Karot Hydropower Project, AJK/Punjab​	29 June 2022	PML-N	$1.720 billion	Operational
22	330 MW HUBCO Thar Coal Power Project (Thar Energy)​	30 September 2022	PML-N	$497.70 million	Operational
23	1,320 MW SSRL Thar Coal Block-I 7.8 mtpa & Power Plant (2×660MW) (Shanghai Electric)​	5 February 2023	PML-N	$1.91212 billion	Operational
24	330 MW HUBCO ThalNova Thar Coal Power Project​	17 February 2023	PML-N	$497.70 million	Operational
25	Pak-China Friendship Hospital​	4 December 2023	Caretaker	$100 million	Completed
26	1.2 MGD Desalination Plant​	4 December 2023	Caretaker	$12.7 million	Completed
27	884 MW Suki Kinari Hydropower Project, KP​	13 September 2024	PML-N	$2 billion	Operational
28	New Gwadar International Airport​	14 October 2024	PML-N	$230 million	Completed

 

[StormBreaker]

No such thing.

The money is with China, distributed by China and given to the Chinese who mainly manage the projects. The money doesn't go into Pakistani banks.

The Chinese build and own the projects for number of years, make profit on them and then transfer them to the countries they have built it for.

That's the 'Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT)' model they've applied on the corridors under BRI.

The corruption accusations by the incompetent PTI Government were made in order to appease the US/IMF who wanted to see the details that were confidential. This is what lead to the freezing of any further expansion of CPEC back then.

@Oscar Your take on this sir?

 

[Michael]

China is building and operating CPEC. Pakistan has given permission for China to use the corridor.

CPEC is essentially a trade lane.
For China, its main role is to link up China's trade routes with Central Asia and Europe.
For Pakistan, its main role is to develop its economy along this trade route.

The core of CPEC is a 3,000km long land transportation line (highway + high-speed railroad + oil and gas pipeline + fiber optic cable pipeline) from Gwadar Port in Pakistan to Kashgar in Xinjiang, China. This is the core project of CPEC. As for other projects, they are all ancillary.

However, since 2013, most of CPEC's work has been at the level of ancillary projects, and there has been no progress on the core projects. Many of the core projects have not yet started. This is totally inconsistent with the construction schedule of infrastructure projects in China. This situation has led the Chinese public to question the Chinese government in large numbers.

Why hasn't China diverted its trade from other routes to CPEC yet?

How is China going to shift trade routes when CPEC's transportation routes aren't even connected?

 

[ety]

CPEC is essentially a trade lane.
For China, its main role is to link up China's trade routes with Central Asia and Europe.
For Pakistan, its main role is to develop its economy along this trade route.

The core of CPEC is a 3,000km long land transportation line (highway + high-speed railroad + oil and gas pipeline + fiber optic cable pipeline) from Gwadar Port in Pakistan to Kashgar in Xinjiang, China. This is the core project of CPEC. As for other projects, they are all ancillary.

However, since 2013, most of CPEC's work has been at the level of ancillary projects, and there has been no progress on the core projects. Many of the core projects have not yet started. This is totally inconsistent with the construction schedule of infrastructure projects in China. This situation has led the Chinese public to question the Chinese government in large numbers.

How is China going to shift trade routes when CPEC's transportation routes aren't even connected?

It's too difficult now to build transport routes such as railway and oil line from Pakistan side to Kashgar in Xinjiang, have to go through difficult hazardous mountains, plus other problems on both sides such as in China the large region adjacent to Pakistan is sparsely populated so economic benefits are not obvious.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

What does upgraded CPEC mean? More debt?

Regards

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

... This situation has led the Chinese public to question the Chinese government in large numbers.

How is China going to shift trade routes when CPEC's transportation routes aren't even connected?

Who's stopping China from working on the core projects? Terrorism in some parts of Balochistan shouldn't stop work in rest of Pakistan.

As per my understanding, the total investment was due to increase to $150 billion from the current $62 billion - but between 2019-2022 when Imran Khan was in power, China showed reluctance to expand under his premiership.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@arjunk

There is a reality about Iran that all Pakistanis need to be aware of. The Iranians, irrespective of whether Shia Muslim or secular or neo-Zoroastrians see the River Indus as their natural frontier (it is their equivalent of France's River Rhine). No amount of ummah brotherhood will change that.

Regards

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

CPEC is essentially a trade lane.
For China, its main role is to link up China's trade routes with Central Asia and Europe.
For Pakistan, its main role is to develop its economy along this trade route.

The core of CPEC is a 3,000km long land transportation line (highway + high-speed railroad + oil and gas pipeline + fiber optic cable pipeline) from Gwadar Port in Pakistan to Kashgar in Xinjiang, China. This is the core project of CPEC. As for other projects, they are all ancillary.

However, since 2013, most of CPEC's work has been at the level of ancillary projects, and there has been no progress on the core projects. Many of the core projects have not yet started. This is totally inconsistent with the construction schedule of infrastructure projects in China. This situation has led the Chinese public to question the Chinese government in large numbers.

How is China going to shift trade routes when CPEC's transportation routes aren't even connected?

Is that the ground reality? When I was last in Pakistan in December 2024, there were many huge infrastructure projects going on all over Eastern/Central Pakistan. When asked what they were for, everyone kept saying they were a part of CPEC. To be honest, I didn't get a chance to go to Balochistan and see what the situation there was like.

 

[wangdefa]

There is an old saying in China that if you want to be rich, build roads first and connect with the outside channels. We will have a new trade route. China has huge trade in the Middle East, Africa and Europe. At the same time, it can also drive Pakistan's economic take-off. Pakistan will have a new share of trade in transportation, warehousing, transit and so on. Who will use the long sea transportation? Who is preventing this corridor from connecting with China? Guys, it's time to think.

 

[wangdefa]

There is an old saying in China that if you want to be rich, build roads first and connect with the outside channels. We will have a new trade route. China has huge trade in the Middle East, Africa and Europe. At the same time, it can also drive Pakistan's economic take-off. Pakistan will have a new share of trade in transportation, warehousing, transit and so on. Who will use the long sea transportation? Who is preventing this corridor from connecting with China? Guys, it's time to think.

Or what I'm talking about is more serious. After the opening of the corridor, how many neighboring countries will benefit? Afghanistan, Iran, China, and the countries in Central Asia that have no access to the sea, which country has been damaged? The corridor has not been opened for ten years, and China's daily transportation needs to pass through the Strait of Malacca, the Indian Ocean, and the long sea route. Guys, please turn your eyes to Southeast Asia. Vietnam has not opened high-speed rail for ten years. We have changed the route to connect Laos and Thailand. After the opening of this railway, the trade volume has increased greatly, which benefits the neighboring countries to transport through this railway. Vietnam has regretted not building high-speed rail. He missed the time.

 

[kambhakt]

How is China going to shift trade routes when CPEC's transportation routes aren't even connected?

The road is there, the port is there. The airport is there. What is pending for the route to be connected.

 

[Dil Pakistan]

What is "upgraded version"?

How should one conceptualize the upgraded version?

 

[Michael]

Who's stopping China from working on the core projects? Terrorism in some parts of Balochistan shouldn't stop work in rest of Pakistan.

Gwadar-Kashi. core trade route of CPEC.
Highways, high-speed railroads, oil and gas pipelines, fiber optic cable projects
All these projects require joint collaboration between China and Pakistan.

Capital and ownership issues.
1. Wholly owned by China? China is fully capable of providing all the capital. However, it involves the issue of ownership and right to use these projects after they are completed. If China wholly owns these projects, it is equivalent to China leasing land to Pakistan, and China pays land lease fees to Pakistan. However, after completion, Pakistan will also need to pay royalties to China if it wants to use the facilities.
2, the two sides jointly invested and share the benefits? These projects are huge investments (for example: the cost of construction costs of Chinese high-speed rail is usually about 100-300 million CNY, and mountainous areas increase by 2-3 times). How much can Pakistan invest in these projects? Share revenue sharing? How will the daily operating costs be billed?

Land Acquisition
The project involves taking up a large amount of land. This can only be handled by the Pakistani government (central and local). I.e., the Government of Pakistan will need to first acquire the land involved as state land and then negotiate with the Chinese government for the use of such land.

Security issues along the route
This is a well known issue and I will not repeat it.

China desperately needs more trade routes. As to who is blocking or delaying these core projects, I think we should be able to analyze the answer.

As per my understanding, the total investment was due to increase to $150 billion from the current $62 billion - but between 2019-2022 when Imran Khan was in power, China showed reluctance to expand under his premiership.

China does not care which political party is in power in Pakistan. Our partner is the Pakistani government, not a particular political party in Pakistan. This is the juridical basis.
If the political parties in Pakistan cannot agree on this, party “A” will sign the agreement when it is in power, and party “B” will repudiate it when it is in power. Then the Chinese Government will completely reconsider its foreign policy towards Pakistan. It may completely abandon all major long-term investment projects in favor of short-term cooperation projects. Large infrastructure investment projects may be canceled altogether. Chinese trade routes will be replaced by other routes.
For example: China-Afghanistan-Iran

Borrowing from the case of Southeast Asia mentioned earlier.

The Vietnamese high-speed railroad had a very central place in China's initial planning of trade routes in South-East Asia.
However, due to various factors, the Vietnamese government has delayed any progress on the Vietnam North-South High Speed Railway.
Therefore, the Chinese government started “Plan B”. We accelerated the construction of the high-speed rail line between “China-Laos-Cambodia-Thailand”. When the “China-Laos” high-speed railroad was opened, the economy of Laos took off rapidly. Thailand and Cambodia also accelerated their own plans for this line.
At this time, Vietnam saw the rapid development of Laos and became anxious. However, it seems that they are already a bit late. ......

If we take the lead in launching the “China-Afghanistan-Iran” high-speed rail line, Pakistan will go from being the centerpiece of the trade route to being a substitute. ......

Is that the ground reality? When I was last in Pakistan in December 2024, there were many huge infrastructure projects going on all over Eastern/Central Pakistan. When asked what they were for, everyone kept saying they were a part of CPEC. To be honest, I didn't get a chance to go to Balochistan and see what the situation there was like.

Most of the projects CPEC is currently working on are ancillary. The real core projects are:
1. Gwadar-Kashgar highway
2. Gwadar-Kashgar High Speed Railway
3, Gwadar-Kashi oil and gas pipeline and fiber optic cable project
You can check the status of these core projects.
According to China's infrastructure capacity and construction progress, these projects should have been completed long ago.

 

[Thinking]

What is "upgraded version"?

How should one conceptualize the upgraded version?

Even faster roads? Even bigger ports? More loan and debt? What are these roads and ports even meant to do?