Trump has raised tariffs all over the world, and he's raised them for a number of reasons, including repatriating manufacturing and forcing the other side to open up their markets, but the most important reason is U.S. debt.
I would go so far as to say that his sole purpose was, is, and will be the US debt. In particular, the $6.5 trillion in U.S. debt maturing this June is something he needs to address on an immediate basis. All of his actions during his presidency have been made with the US debt as the goal.
Some people think Trump is a lunatic and a retard, that his behavior is stupid and unpredictable. No, you are wrong. The whole model of electing a president in the United States may elect a lunatic and a retard as president, but the people in charge of coming up with ideas for the United States can never be lunatics and retards.
The U.S. debt expires in June at $6.5 trillion, and $9.2 trillion this year. The U.S. government can't afford to pay it back either in the first half of the year or the second half of the year, so Trump's or the U.S. government's trade blackmail in the beginning was to force countries to subscribe to U.S. debt, and I'm talking about interest-free, 100-year U.S. debt. When countries take their foreign exchange reserves and the future to buy a pile of scrap paper after a hundred years, so that the U.S. debt is instantly emptied, this is the real make America great again!
Of course, even if all countries including China and the European Union buy U.S. debt, the $9.2 trillion in U.S. debt maturing this year can't be bought, so Trump will have to think of other ways to drive money into U.S. debt, and that way is the U.S. stock market.
The U.S. stock market has a huge amount of dollars in its inflated bubble. Just driving the stock market money into the bond market would solve the problem of restructuring the US debt maturing this year. That's why Trump says he doesn't care about the stock market and tells the American people not to care too much about stock market ups and downs. The reason is that he needs hot money to buy newly issued US debt to pay off old debt.
Why would the near 5% interest rate on US debt cause Trump to immediately concede defeat in one night? Why does Trump run off to play golf and not care about the stock market when he is raising tariffs like crazy and the stock market is crashing? Because he just wants the money in the stock market to leave the stock market to go to the debt market. But here is a bug, the money in the stock market does not necessarily run to buy U.S. bonds, the reason is the yield problem. When Trump restructures the debt, he must have lower interest rates on the debt. If the yield on US debt is too high, restructuring new debt would be a loss, and it would be better not to issue it at all.
Why did several Wall Street heavyweights warn that the U.S. stock market was headed for a bear market? Why did Trump dare to send out a video of them manipulating the stock market for the world to see? The reason is that he deliberately drove the money in the stock market to the bond market. His subtext is, the stock market I want to play how I want to play, you do not fool, hurry from the stock market divestment put!
If the world is only the United States a capital market, then his set of logic can succeed. But the world also has China, Europe, Japan can capital hedge, and physical gold. So Trump needs to suppress the price of gold, to raise tariffs to the world, especially China, the EU, Japan, his purpose is to block the flow of safe-haven capital.
The tactic of the US government is this: put tariffs on the world, then global currencies are devalued against the US, and the US absorbs the exodus funds. These funds going to the US have to make a profit to do so, then it is the stock market or the bond market. The stock market has been destroyed and they can only buy US debt. The U.S. government took the opportunity to issue low-interest U.S. bonds, and although they are low-interest U.S. bonds, when you look at the world, this is the only commodity that can be invested in.
So the reason that the US is most at odds with China and the EU this time around is because is that these two markets are the ones that have the power to threaten the dollar repatriation program.
Trump is panicking right now because it is clear that China is not willing to negotiate and is ready to intercept safe-haven capital coming into the US by June of this year. By waiting just two days to voluntarily back down and reduce tariffs on electronics, Trump is trying to hurry up and negotiate with China. He will have to negotiate with the EU next because his real goal is to devalue the yuan and the euro. So even if China is negotiating with the US, Trump's bottom line will be tariffs of no less than 20%. At least that number has to be reached before it could influence safe-haven money to go to China.
But it is becoming clear that China, the EU, Japan, Canada and other countries are not going to give in to pressure from Trump and the US government and they are bound to intercept safe-haven capital. So how does the U.S. government continue to move forward with their plans?
I predict Trump will invade Iran. Trump's goal in invading Iran is simple, drive up costs for industrialized countries like China, force capital in the Middle East to flee for safety, and push up the price of oil.
The Middle East is the world's oil lifeline, and once a war opens up here, the rich and powerful of the Middle East will flee to the United States. Why have countries such as Saudi Arabia recently promised to invest in the United States? In fact, it is to hedge, they have predicted that the United States to invade Iran. Middle Eastern money will continue to flee at an accelerated rate in the future, as China and the European Union's toughness has caused half of America's plan to restructure its debt to fail, so there is now a high likelihood that the U.S. will invade Iran.
During this time the U.S. also sanctioned countries that buy Venezuelan, Iranian, and Russian oil. Its purpose is simple: to force other countries to buy American oil. Because the U.S. wants to use the invasion of Iran to push up the price of oil, and at the peak of the price of oil, it will quickly sign high-priced U.S. oil export agreements with economic entities such as China, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, and others. Then the Americans use the low-priced Russian oil to stimulate manufacturing into the US. This is why Trump wants to sell out Ukraine to bring in Russia.
I've always thought that Trump's driving out illegal immigrants and raising tariffs had the dual purpose of restructuring the U.S. debt and bringing back manufacturing. A lot of people don't believe that the U.S. can grow manufacturing back. In fact, the Chinese can already see the answer, which is automated factories. Relying on a lot of robots can actually grow manufacturing in the US.
As for Iran, we can see if top Iranian officials will visit China recently. If top Iranian officials visit China, that would indicate Iran's determination to resist, and China would likely intervene to prevent a new Middle East war. If top Iranian officials do not visit China, then it means that Iran has capitulated and China will not intervene in the US invasion of Iran.
As for China, it is unlikely that China will have any negotiations or even contact with Trump until June of this year. Because there are a lot of actions that China can conveniently do only when the relationship is very poor.
