FIFA World Cup 2026

AZ_HighCountry said:
This reads like cope.

Everything always looks great on paper. It's the final results that matter.
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Everything I wrote was based on facts and nothing else. A historical freak result does not change the fact that Spain is the reigning European champions, 1 of the 2 main World Cup favorites and that they are likely to win their group anyway.

Cope is saying that because a freak result occurred, team x (Spain in this case) is worse than a much worse team y (Belgium in this case) in whatever metric you look at it.

Let me give you an analogy from US sports. Chicago Bulls in their prime probably lost against teams who did not even qualify for the playoffs yet that did not mean that they were a worse team. In particular in seasons where they ended up winning the NBA.

Its sports, freak results do occur. The statistics from that game were very clear. Spain had an XG of 4 goals or so. Meaning that on any given average day they would have scored 4 goals. Cape Verde had 1 shot on goal in comparison and 15 % or 20 % ball possession. We had almost twice as much to make a comparison.
 
_Arabia_ said:
If you take a closer look at the statistics of that game you would realize that Spain should have scored 4-5 goals if you look at the stats, XG, shots on goal, possession etc.
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I'd say it's rather simplified to rely on the stats in certain contexts. xG is not a stat I like particularly because it renders defensive and goalkeeping ability meaningless.

xG could be high because a team has lots of on target shots but if every shot is from a difficult angle and/or easily charged down and/or well saved by a top keeper, xG will still be high but that team cannot overcome the opponent's defensive and goalkeeping skill.

I totally agree that the absence of Yamal and Williams was critical though. Spain need those two fully fit (or at least Yamal) and starting every game.
 
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All commentators are noting how much of a disadvantage Iran is at due the politicisation of the tournament by the host, which launched an illegal war of aggression against Iran only a few months ago.
 
_Arabia_ said:
Everything I wrote was based on facts and nothing else. A historical freak result does not change the fact that Spain is the reigning European champions, 1 of the 2 main World Cup favorites and that they are likely to win their group anyway.

Cope is saying that because a freak result occurred, team x (Spain in this case) is worse than a much worse team y (Belgium in this case) in whatever metric you look at it.

Let me give you an analogy from US sports. Chicago Bulls in their prime probably lost against teams who did not even qualify for the playoffs yet that did not mean that they were a worse team. In particular in seasons where they ended up winning the NBA.

Its sports, freak results do occur. The statistics from that game were very clear. Spain had an XG of 4 goals or so. Meaning that on any given average day they would have scored 4 goals. Cape Verde had 1 shot on goal in comparison and 15 or 20% ball possession. We had almost twice as much to make a comparison.
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I'm not saying you weren't being factual, was I?

And am I wrong to state that everything looks great on paper? Or was I wrong that it is final results that matter?

By all rights, the recently completed Stanley Cup Final should have been between Colorado and Carolina. Colorado had the best record and stats in the league. Yet, they went home and Vegas went in their place. Vegas had to fight to make the playoffs.
 
Master Chief said:
I'd say it's rather simplified to rely on the stats in certain contexts. xG is not a stat I like particularly because it renders defensive and goalkeeping ability meaningless.

xG could be high because a team has lots of on target shots but if every shot is from a difficult angle and/or easily charged down and/or well saved by a top keeper, xG will still be high but that team cannot overcome the opponent's defensive and goalkeeping skill.

I totally agree that the absence of Yamal and Williams was critical though. Spain need those two fully fit (or at least Yamal) and starting every game.
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It is the best objective statistic that we have. Analysts are using it extensively on the highest level for a reason.

Spain had 35-40 shots on goal against Cape Verde. On any given day they would have easily won that game if not for historically bad finishing and one of the best goalkeeping performances in World Cup history.

Such results occur and it is part of the charm of football and sports in general.

That however does not change anything about Spain being reigning European champions, likely winning their group anyway and 1 of the 2 main favorites alongside France.

Anyway I think that you agree with my points. Same thing with Spain being a much, much superior team to Belgium which every objective metric also confirms. There is no comparison. Belgium has now had 2 pathetic performances against teams that they were favorites against. I would honestly not be shocked if they somehow could not defeat New Zealand who are one of the worst teams in their own right.
 
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great interview with Beiranvand (with English subtitles)
 
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