Future of India's SSBN fleet

[Faceless]

India is situated in a difficult weapons of mass destruction (WMD) region. The fact that both of its nuclear-capable neighbours—China and Pakistan—are engaged in a secret and extensive nuclear cooperation framework adds to New Delhi’s difficulties.
Therefore, to create a robust nuclear deterrent, India has also embarked on developing the sea-leg of its nuclear triad, which is believed to be the least vulnerable and most survivable deterrence platform.
With the speculated launch of the fourth ballistic submarine missile of the Arihant-class which is capable of carrying 8 Submarine Launch Ballistic Missiles (SLBM), India’s SSBN programme is maturing into a credible second-strike capability.
However It is not enough, We need more SSBNs for a powerful and effective deterrence.
With only 24 VLS tubes, which can only carry K15 or K4 non MIRVed SLBMs and can't target China or Pakistan from Safer Waters of Bay of Bengal or Indian Ocean, it becomes all the more important that S5 class of submariners are prioritised and inducted in big enough numbers.

Currently It is speculated India is planning to construct 3 S5 class of SSBNs which will have 16 VLS cells each however it is still not enough and we need 2 more S5 class of SSBNs because of the following reasons

1. First two subs of the Arihant Class are pocket boomers and can't provide even good enough deterrence and will most likely be only used for training the crew.

2. First two subs of the Arihant Class are technologically old and relatively noisy and thus may be retired earlier

3. The VLS cells on the Arihant Class are relatively smaller limiting them to only carry non MIRVed Medium Range SLBMs, which basically means they can only be employed against Pakistan.

4. It is widely believed that for a permanent deterrence patrol one needs 4 SSBNs , with at least one sub on patrol, one preparing for patrol, one returning to port, and one in maintenance.

For Reference During the cold war, France had a fleet of six Redoutables class Submarine to maintain a CASD of two/three boats
If India Wishes to have a credible Sea based Deterrence against China 4 S5 class are a given with the extra 5th sub providing deterrence against Pakistan alongside the smaller and less capable S4 and S4* subs of the Arihant Class.

 

[Faceless]

I am looking forward to your opinions
@CallSignMaverick @vkdindian @JaneBhiDoYaaron @Joe Shearer @DDG-80 @Pingle @harpy1 @Guru Dutt @MirageBlue @kaku

 

[Joe Shearer]

Will watch with interest.

Out of town, not good trying to say things on a phone keyboard and screen.

 

[DDG-80]

2. First two subs of the Arihant Class are technologically old and relatively noisy and thus may be retired earlier

With the introduction of S5 class SSBNs boasting advanced MIRVed missiles like K4/K5/K6, the Indian Navy could explore repurposing the initial two Arihant-class SSBNs into SSGNs. This transformation would enable extended-range precision strikes using cruise missiles, reminiscent of the conversion of Ohio-class submarines undertaken by the United States.

 

[Justin TruDont]

View attachment 37058

India is situated in a difficult weapons of mass destruction (WMD) region. The fact that both of its nuclear-capable neighbours—China and Pakistan—are engaged in a secret and extensive nuclear cooperation framework adds to New Delhi’s difficulties.
Therefore, to create a robust nuclear deterrent, India has also embarked on developing the sea-leg of its nuclear triad, which is believed to be the least vulnerable and most survivable deterrence platform.
With the speculated launch of the fourth ballistic submarine missile of the Arihant-class which is capable of carrying 8 Submarine Launch Ballistic Missiles (SLBM), India’s SSBN programme is maturing into a credible second-strike capability.
However It is not enough, We need more SSBNs for a powerful and effective deterrence.
With only 24 VLS tubes, which can only carry K15 or K4 non MIRVed SLBMs and can't target China or Pakistan from Safer Waters of Bay of Bengal or Indian Ocean, it becomes all the more important that S5 class of submariners are prioritised and inducted in big enough numbers.

Currently It is speculated India is planning to construct 3 S5 class of SSBNs which will have 16 VLS cells each however it is still not enough and we need 2 more S5 class of SSBNs because of the following reasons

1. First two subs of the Arihant Class are pocket boomers and can't provide even good enough deterrence and will most likely be only used for training the crew.

2. First two subs of the Arihant Class are technologically old and relatively noisy and thus may be retired earlier

3. The VLS cells on the Arihant Class are relatively smaller limiting them to only carry non MIRVed Medium Range SLBMs, which basically means they can only be employed against Pakistan.

4. It is widely believed that for a permanent deterrence patrol one needs 4 SSBNs , with at least one sub on patrol, one preparing for patrol, one returning to port, and one in maintenance.

For Reference During the cold war, France had a fleet of six Redoutables class Submarine to maintain a CASD of two/three boats
If India Wishes to have a credible Sea based Deterrence against China 4 S5 class are a given with the extra 5th sub providing deterrence against Pakistan alongside the smaller and less capable S4 and S4* subs of the Arihant Class.

A lot of the points mentioned here are not exactly Factual

Nuclear subs are noisier as compared to Modern Diesel electric SSKs

But saying that its technologically inferior without any proof is wrong.

Its not going to be as capable as western Nuke subs, but it will match the chinese and the Russians when it comes to Tech and Noise signature.

These subs are the first of the kind being built in India, their is a learning curve which is being followed here.

INS Arighat Inducted in 2022 already has several improvements over the Arihant , mainly due to the 6 year gap between their induction.

INS Arhidaman which is under sea trials and INS Ariharan which is under construction are 20% larger than INS Arihant and carry 8 k4 missiles or 8 K5 MIRV Missiles.

Then we have the S5 class subs which are currently under design phase . These subs will weigh around 13500 tons and will carry 16 K5 MIRV Missiles

Ship Building Center Vishakhapatnam , can build two Nuke subs simultaneously , whats likely to happen is that India could order 2 S5 Subs once INS Arhidaman gets delivered sometime in 2025.
Once these 2 subs are delivered then we move on towards SSNs .

However Arihant and Arighat are not going to be in for early retirement . These are expensive Subs costing 2.9 Billion USD each , what will likely happen is that , they will be removed from Deterent patrol once S5 subs are commissioned, intead these subs will be converted into SSGN or Guided missile Subs , replacing 12 K15 Balistic missiles with 12-16 Brahmos Block 4 Missiles with 800+ km range .

This is exactly what US has done to 4 Ohio class Subs , replacing Trident Ballistic missiles with Tomahawk Cruise Missiles

 

[harpy1]

What is weight class on enlarged. Latest Arihant
I know the first ship was 6000 tonnes

 

[DDG-80]

What is weight class on enlarged. Latest Arihant
I know the first ship was 6000 tonnes

7,000 tonnes

 

[nahtanbob]

View attachment 37058

India is situated in a difficult weapons of mass destruction (WMD) region. The fact that both of its nuclear-capable neighbours—China and Pakistan—are engaged in a secret and extensive nuclear cooperation framework adds to New Delhi’s difficulties.
Therefore, to create a robust nuclear deterrent, India has also embarked on developing the sea-leg of its nuclear triad, which is believed to be the least vulnerable and most survivable deterrence platform.
With the speculated launch of the fourth ballistic submarine missile of the Arihant-class which is capable of carrying 8 Submarine Launch Ballistic Missiles (SLBM), India’s SSBN programme is maturing into a credible second-strike capability.
However It is not enough, We need more SSBNs for a powerful and effective deterrence.
With only 24 VLS tubes, which can only carry K15 or K4 non MIRVed SLBMs and can't target China or Pakistan from Safer Waters of Bay of Bengal or Indian Ocean, it becomes all the more important that S5 class of submariners are prioritised and inducted in big enough numbers.

Currently It is speculated India is planning to construct 3 S5 class of SSBNs which will have 16 VLS cells each however it is still not enough and we need 2 more S5 class of SSBNs because of the following reasons

1. First two subs of the Arihant Class are pocket boomers and can't provide even good enough deterrence and will most likely be only used for training the crew.

2. First two subs of the Arihant Class are technologically old and relatively noisy and thus may be retired earlier

3. The VLS cells on the Arihant Class are relatively smaller limiting them to only carry non MIRVed Medium Range SLBMs, which basically means they can only be employed against Pakistan.

4. It is widely believed that for a permanent deterrence patrol one needs 4 SSBNs , with at least one sub on patrol, one preparing for patrol, one returning to port, and one in maintenance.

For Reference During the cold war, France had a fleet of six Redoutables class Submarine to maintain a CASD of two/three boats
If India Wishes to have a credible Sea based Deterrence against China 4 S5 class are a given with the extra 5th sub providing deterrence against Pakistan alongside the smaller and less capable S4 and S4* subs of the Arihant Class.

It is not needed really against Pakistan. You do not need more than 5 or 6 to deter China. Chinese ASW capabilities and capacities are modest.

The key is operational reliability - submarine platform at large, nuclear propulsion system and ballistic missile delivery mechanism.

 

[Faceless]

Dude Calm you tits and read the article again

But saying that its technologically inferior without any proof is wrong

If you need proof for such a basic fact then you my friend are in for a very rude awakening.
Our ATV project traces its roots from the 1970s era Charlie Class and Kilo class subs with the reactor design being based off 2nd Gen Soviet reactors.

this alone is proof enough that they are technologically inferior to their western counterpart not only due to being based on Soviet design but also due to being an older design

However Both the S4 and S4* subs which use a more modern reactor and incorporate lessons learnt from the leased Akula class are infinitely better than the original INS Arihant.

Its not going to be as capable as western Nuke subs, but it will match the chinese and the Russians when it comes to Tech and Noise signature.

You are grossly underestimating China, those MFs spend money on R&D like crazy and have been doing so for a very long time.
More importantly it is not a dick measuring contest between subs, Chinese subs being inferior or superior does not matter, what matters is how advanced their Submarine detection technology is.

Great Underwater Wall - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

How do you know the Chinese spying post at Cocos Island is not a part of this Great Underwater Wall and does not house a SOSUS like system

These subs are the first of the kind being built in India, their is a learning curve which is being followed here.

And your point being because nowhere am I saying otherwise.
infact you are the one suggesting that the 1st product from our "learning curve" i.e INS Arihant is infact not technologically inferior
Or are you of the opinion that your first dish is going to be just as good as the cook who taught you

INS Arhidaman which is under sea trials and INS Ariharan which is under construction are 20% larger than INS Arihant and carry 8 k4 missiles or 8 K5 MIRV Missiles

Read the godamn article again, where am I saying anything otherwise.
K4 is the most technologically advanced (more than even Agni 5) and packed to the brim missile DRDO has made and it already barely fits into the VLS of Arihant Class subs, even after taking into account all the technological advancements that India has made is the missile domain in the last decade K5 can either have longer range or a MIRV warhead but not both, Unless ofcourse the VLS tubes of S4 and S4* are bigger than that of S2 and S3.

Then we have the S5 class subs which are currently under design phase . These subs will weigh around 13500 tons and will carry 16 K5 MIRV Missiles

That's what the whole article is about "Future of India's SSBN fleet" remember, what are you even trying to say

Ship Building Center Vishakhapatnam , can build two Nuke subs simultaneously , whats likely to happen is that India could order 2 S5 Subs

And that is Exactly what I am advocating for in this article. Ughhhh what are you even trying to prove

However Arihant and Arighat are not going to be in for early retirement . These are expensive Subs costing 2.9 Billion USD each , what will likely happen is that , they will be removed from Deterent patrol once S5 subs are commissioned, intead these subs will be converted into SSGN or Guided missile Subs , replacing 12 K15 Balistic missiles with 12-16 Brahmos Block 4 Missiles with 800+ km range .

What will be the fate of S2 and S3 is something we can debate on, I believe they will be used as training Subs, you believe they will be used as a SSGN, both arguments have their own merits, let's see what the future holds.

This is exactly what US has done to 4 Ohio class Subs , replacing Trident Ballistic missiles with Tomahawk Cruise Missiles

I don't think S2 and S3 are silent enough to work as a SSGN 800km off the cost of any sufficiently advanced navy.
US could do that because Ohio class are designed for CASD patrol which necessitates them to be more silent and stealthy than their Russian counterpart who designed their sub around the Bastion strategy

Here is a great research paper from US NAVAL
POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL, although the researcher is Highly biased and very dismissive about India and it's Naval capabilities, it's nonetheless a good read

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

View attachment 37058

India is situated in a difficult weapons of mass destruction (WMD) region. The fact that both of its nuclear-capable neighbours—China and Pakistan—are engaged in a secret and extensive nuclear cooperation framework adds to New Delhi’s difficulties.
Therefore, to create a robust nuclear deterrent, India has also embarked on developing the sea-leg of its nuclear triad, which is believed to be the least vulnerable and most survivable deterrence platform.
With the speculated launch of the fourth ballistic submarine missile of the Arihant-class which is capable of carrying 8 Submarine Launch Ballistic Missiles (SLBM), India’s SSBN programme is maturing into a credible second-strike capability.
However It is not enough, We need more SSBNs for a powerful and effective deterrence.
With only 24 VLS tubes, which can only carry K15 or K4 non MIRVed SLBMs and can't target China or Pakistan from Safer Waters of Bay of Bengal or Indian Ocean, it becomes all the more important that S5 class of submariners are prioritised and inducted in big enough numbers.

Currently It is speculated India is planning to construct 3 S5 class of SSBNs which will have 16 VLS cells each however it is still not enough and we need 2 more S5 class of SSBNs because of the following reasons

1. First two subs of the Arihant Class are pocket boomers and can't provide even good enough deterrence and will most likely be only used for training the crew.

2. First two subs of the Arihant Class are technologically old and relatively noisy and thus may be retired earlier

3. The VLS cells on the Arihant Class are relatively smaller limiting them to only carry non MIRVed Medium Range SLBMs, which basically means they can only be employed against Pakistan.

4. It is widely believed that for a permanent deterrence patrol one needs 4 SSBNs , with at least one sub on patrol, one preparing for patrol, one returning to port, and one in maintenance.

For Reference During the cold war, France had a fleet of six Redoutables class Submarine to maintain a CASD of two/three boats
If India Wishes to have a credible Sea based Deterrence against China 4 S5 class are a given with the extra 5th sub providing deterrence against Pakistan alongside the smaller and less capable S4 and S4* subs of the Arihant Class.

We need more powerful atleast 10 SSBN and 5 SSN nuclear submarines in the future.

 

[FuturePAF]

Basically Hand me down Russian tech; about a generation behind. At best, for pakistan, it should hope Chinese tech catches up and exceeds Russian tech so that Pakistan can get China’s hand me downs; Type 093B in the 2030s.

Let’s not kid ourselves into thinking India is making major advances in submarine tech, otherwise they wouldn’t be pursuing European SSK designs, in such a haphazard manner.

 

[vikNerv]

Basically Hand me down Russian tech; about a generation behind. At best, for pakistan, it should hope Chinese tech catches up and exceeds Russian tech so that Pakistan can get China’s hand me downs; Type 093B in the 2030s.

Let’s not kid ourselves into thinking India is making major advances in submarine tech, otherwise they wouldn’t be pursuing European SSK designs, in such a haphazard manner.

What is the level of tech difference between SSK and SSBN/SSN? I mean, does not being able to build SSK mean the SSBN tech developed inhouse is inferior? Is there a corelation there? India cant make heavy helos on our own but we have pretty decent light helos (own design/ip rights how ever you call it). Former doesnt mean the latter is bad (in the case of our helos), can this be said of subs? Japanese make very good SSN, but never made an SSBN, would you rate their SSBN expertise in the same vein then? Asking because you as a think tank made a claim/assertion and i would like to know the reason behind it.

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

Basically Hand me down Russian tech; about a generation behind. At best, for pakistan, it should hope Chinese tech catches up and exceeds Russian tech so that Pakistan can get China’s hand me downs; Type 093B in the 2030s.

Let’s not kid ourselves into thinking India is making major advances in submarine tech, otherwise they wouldn’t be pursuing European SSK designs, in such a haphazard manner.

Russian submarine technology is almost 1 generation behind, it's known by everyone.

Such advanced western technology was not available for India until the 2000s.

Arihant class generation of Indian SSBN's are based on russian tech, not now a few other western countries are okay to collaborate with India on western technology.

Next SSN and SSBN will be surely based on European tech base.

 

[Pingle]

I am looking forward to your opinions
@CallSignMaverick @vkdindian @JaneBhiDoYaaron @Joe Shearer @DDG-80 @Pingle @harpy1 @Guru Dutt @MirageBlue @kaku

I think K4 with its range of 4000 kms is capable of targeting Pakistan if not China?

 

[FuturePAF]

Dude Calm you tits and read the article again

If you need proof for such a basic fact then you my friend are in for a very rude awakening.
Our ATV project traces its roots from the 1970s era Charlie Class and Kilo class subs with the reactor design being based off 2nd Gen Soviet reactors.

this alone is proof enough that they are technologically inferior to their western counterpart not only due to being based on Soviet design but also due to being an older design

However Both the S4 and S4* subs which use a more modern reactor and incorporate lessons learnt from the leased Akula class are infinitely better than the original INS Arihant.


You are grossly underestimating China, those MFs spend money on R&D like crazy and have been doing so for a very long time.
More importantly it is not a dick measuring contest between subs, Chinese subs being inferior or superior does not matter, what matters is how advanced their Submarine detection technology is.

Great Underwater Wall - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

How do you know the Chinese spying post at Cocos Island is not a part of this Great Underwater Wall and does not house a SOSUS like system

And your point being because nowhere am I saying otherwise.
infact you are the one suggesting that the 1st product from our "learning curve" i.e INS Arihant is infact not technologically inferior
Or are you of the opinion that your first dish is going to be just as good as the cook who taught you

Read the godamn article again, where am I saying anything otherwise.
K4 is the most technologically advanced (more than even Agni 5) and packed to the brim missile DRDO has made and it already barely fits into the VLS of Arihant Class subs, even after taking into account all the technological advancements that India has made is the missile domain in the last decade K5 can either have longer range or a MIRV warhead but not both, Unless ofcourse the VLS tubes of S4 and S4* are bigger than that of S2 and S3.


That's what the whole article is about "Future of India's SSBN fleet" remember, what are you even trying to say

And that is Exactly what I am advocating for in this article. Ughhhh what are you even trying to prove

What will be the fate of S2 and S3 is something we can debate on, I believe they will be used as training Subs, you believe they will be used as a SSGN, both arguments have their own merits, let's see what the future holds.

I don't think S2 and S3 are silent enough to work as a SSGN 800km off the cost of any sufficiently advanced navy.
US could do that because Ohio class are designed for CASD patrol which necessitates them to be more silent and stealthy than their Russian counterpart who designed their sub around the Bastion strategy

Here is a great research paper from US NAVAL
POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL, although the researcher is Highly biased and very dismissive about India and it's Naval capabilities, it's nonetheless a good read

Thanks for arguing on the merits. What Soviet/Russian equivalent would you say Indian SSN/SSGN/SSBN tech is currently at, Akula II, perhaps Akula III? Said to be around late improved Los Angeles class sub equivalent. Generously we could say Akula III could be approaching early Virginia Class Sound levels.

Also thanks for sharing the article.

Side note, most references put the sound levels of the Type 093B at “20 years behind US levels”; aka early Virginia class sound levels.

Some may be in a match for the best India maybe able to field by the early 2030s and what Pakistan may be able to lease at the same time, in terms of sound levels.