Future of India's SSBN fleet

[FuturePAF]

Russian submarine technology is almost 1 generation behind, it's known by everyone.

Such advanced western technology was not available for India until the 2000s.

Arihant class generation of Indian SSBN's are based on russian tech, not now a few other western countries are okay to collaborate with India on western technology.

Next SSN and SSBN will be surely based on European tech base.

Just say it and be specific; you anticipate French barracuda class SSN tech.

 

[FuturePAF]

What is the level of tech difference between SSK and SSBN/SSN? I mean, does not being able to build SSK mean the SSBN tech developed inhouse is inferior? Is there a corelation there? India cant make heavy helos on our own but we have pretty decent light helos (own design/ip rights how ever you call it). Former doesnt mean the latter is bad (in the case of our helos), can this be said of subs? Japanese make very good SSN, but never made an SSBN, would you rate their SSBN expertise in the same vein then? Asking because you as a think tank made a claim/assertion and i would like to know the reason behind it.

Quoting the reactor noise is hard. SSN are good at speed and endurance at a level SSKs just can’t do.

SSKs are good for defense. SSNs are to go on the offense, or at least expand the possibilities and axis of attack.

 

[DDG-80]

Let’s not kid ourselves into thinking India is making major advances in submarine tech, otherwise they wouldn’t be pursuing European SSK designs, in such a haphazard manner.

Your remarks appear tinged with jealousy. Concerning SSK submarine technology, we've autonomously crafted our submarine fuel cell AIP technology in-house. What strides have you guys made in comparison?

 

[DDG-80]

Side note, most references put the sound levels of the Type 093B at “20 years behind US levels”; aka early Virginia class sound levels.

The cutting-edge nuclear reactors employed in US nuclear submarines, exemplified by the latest Virginia class SSNs, utilize highly enriched uranium (U-235 enriched to over 90%) and are engineered to run for 33 years without requiring refueling. It's hard to fathom China matching this remarkable engineering achievement.

 

[kaku]

View attachment 37058

India is situated in a difficult weapons of mass destruction (WMD) region. The fact that both of its nuclear-capable neighbours—China and Pakistan—are engaged in a secret and extensive nuclear cooperation framework adds to New Delhi’s difficulties.
Therefore, to create a robust nuclear deterrent, India has also embarked on developing the sea-leg of its nuclear triad, which is believed to be the least vulnerable and most survivable deterrence platform.
With the speculated launch of the fourth ballistic submarine missile of the Arihant-class which is capable of carrying 8 Submarine Launch Ballistic Missiles (SLBM), India’s SSBN programme is maturing into a credible second-strike capability.
However It is not enough, We need more SSBNs for a powerful and effective deterrence.
With only 24 VLS tubes, which can only carry K15 or K4 non MIRVed SLBMs and can't target China or Pakistan from Safer Waters of Bay of Bengal or Indian Ocean, it becomes all the more important that S5 class of submariners are prioritised and inducted in big enough numbers.

Currently It is speculated India is planning to construct 3 S5 class of SSBNs which will have 16 VLS cells each however it is still not enough and we need 2 more S5 class of SSBNs because of the following reasons

1. First two subs of the Arihant Class are pocket boomers and can't provide even good enough deterrence and will most likely be only used for training the crew.

2. First two subs of the Arihant Class are technologically old and relatively noisy and thus may be retired earlier

3. The VLS cells on the Arihant Class are relatively smaller limiting them to only carry non MIRVed Medium Range SLBMs, which basically means they can only be employed against Pakistan.

4. It is widely believed that for a permanent deterrence patrol one needs 4 SSBNs , with at least one sub on patrol, one preparing for patrol, one returning to port, and one in maintenance.

For Reference During the cold war, France had a fleet of six Redoutables class Submarine to maintain a CASD of two/three boats
If India Wishes to have a credible Sea based Deterrence against China 4 S5 class are a given with the extra 5th sub providing deterrence against Pakistan alongside the smaller and less capable S4 and S4* subs of the Arihant Class.

For providing sea-based deterrence, not only you need SSBN, but also SSN, to sanitize the launch points and trenches.

Furthur, it be impossible for me to reveal several details, but Arighat is transfered to DRDO fully as testbed for next-gen SSBN and SSN.

Nuclear subs are noisier as compared to Modern Diesel electric SSKs

This is entirely wrong premise, and only coming from those western nations, who never operated SSNs.

Most of peacetime intelligence OPs in western powers are done by SSNs, not SSKs.

 

[kaku]

Basically Hand me down Russian tech; about a generation behind. At best, for pakistan, it should hope Chinese tech catches up and exceeds Russian tech so that Pakistan can get China’s hand me downs; Type 093B in the 2030s.

Let’s not kid ourselves into thinking India is making major advances in submarine tech, otherwise they wouldn’t be pursuing European SSK designs, in such a haphazard manner.

Underestimating the investment required for developing a nuke sub is the biggest mistake any nation could make. Australia is now realizing that.

Furthur, we dont need submarine technologies, but manufacturing technologies from Europe, especially fabricating single hull.

 

[FuturePAF]

Underestimating the investment required for developing a nuke sub is the biggest mistake any nation could make. Australia is now realizing that.

Furthur, we dont need submarine technologies, but manufacturing technologies from Europe, especially fabricating single hull.

Not underestimating. That’s why I said the Indians are going on the Russian tech they can get. Why start from scratch when you can start at where your partners bring you to.

The French will sell it to you the tech piecemeal and at great expense, and over enough time to fund the develop the next generation of their tech. Not unlike what is being done to Australia for $368 Billion.

 

[DevendraRajput]

Some may be in a match for the best India maybe able to field by the early 2030s and what Pakistan may be able to lease at the same time, in terms of sound levels.

Trouble for Pakistan will be that these subs might well be in bay of bengal or near andoman nicorbar and yet they can attack Pakistan using nuclear missiles. No amount of subs that Pakistan gets will be able to work around that. And no, you are not getting any nuclear subs anytime soon.

 

[kaku]

Not underestimating. That’s why I said the Indians are going on the Russian tech they can get. Why start from scratch when you can start at where your partners bring you to.

Nobody is starting from scratch, but we have moved on from Russian fabriacation tech long ago.

The French will sell it to you the tech piecemeal and at great expense,

French control systems even exist on Arihant class. And French are using EP for SSBNs since 90s.

and over enough time to fund the develop the next generation of their tech. Not unlike what is being done to Australia for $368 Billion.

You think Indian SSBN development was cheap? I can give you ballpark figure considering inflation, its around $40 billion USD.

 

[Faceless]

It is not needed really against Pakistan

And why exactly is that, since when having a strong deterrence is not really needed, specially with a trigger happy country like Pakistan

You do not need more than 5 or 6 to deter China. Chinese ASW capabilities and capacities are modest.

Chinese ASW capability is far from modest, what do you think this is

Great Underwater Wall - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

They have their very own SOSUS and are constantly upgrading their ASW capabilities because it's the biggest threat to their surface fleet, to understimate them is complete foolishness

We need more powerful atleast 10 SSBN and 5 SSN nuclear submarines in the future

Why stop at 10 let's make it 20, bro do you even understand how much firepower just 5 S5 class SSBN can bring.
16 ICBMs with only 3 modest MIRV warheads means each sub will carry 40-48 warheads and there would be 5 such subs, even if only 2 or 3 are at active Sea patrol that means 80-120 mated warheads, that's like 90% of our total warheads

Basically Hand me down Russian tech

So what, it's much better than sinking billions in reinventing the wheel and producing a sub standard submarine
Also FYI Both S4 and S4* subs use an improved version of CLWR-B1 reactor that is more advanced than VM-4 reactor and produces 90MW of power.

At best, for pakistan, it should hope Chinese tech catches up and exceeds Russian tech so that Pakistan can get China’s hand me downs; Type 093B in the 2030s.

India is the only country to have ever gotten it's hand on a foreign SSBN or SSGN, do you really want me to believe that China will take such a risk with its nuclear powered subs and with type 093Bs at that
Not to mention does PN even want a Nuclear sub, they are extremely costly to operate and will suck the already small budget of PN dry

Let’s not kid ourselves into thinking India is making major advances in submarine tech otherwise they wouldn’t be pursuing European SSK designs, in such a haphazard manner

We are working on a midget sub, prototyping a 35MW pump jet propulsion, and testing a fuel cell AIP all independently and without any foreign assistance or collaboration but If that is your kool aid then so be it, who am I to say anything.
Also SSK and SSNs have completely different types of complexity, comparing them is like saying if you can build a S band AWACS radar then there should be no problem building a X band FCR

What Soviet/Russian equivalent would you say Indian SSN/SSGN/SSBN tech is currently at, Akula II, perhaps Akula III? Said to be around late improved Los Angeles class sub equivalent. Generously we could say Akula III could be approaching early Virginia Class Sound levels.

Akula III were laid down in 1991, the Ship India leased was laid down in 1993, I would leave it at that
Even Block I Virginia class is far more advanced and quiter than Akula III, I would keep Indian SSBNs like S2 and S3 at par with flight II los angeles class and S4 and S4* at approaching flight III los angeles
New S5 class would be near block II Virginia Class

Some may be in a match for the best India maybe able to field by the early 2030s and what Pakistan may be able to lease at the same time, in terms of sound levels.

Yeah, That's not happening, as neither party is interested in doing so.
It's like saying after China completes Type 004 it will sell Type 001 to PN

Just say it and be specific; you anticipate French barracuda class SSN tech

Our own SSN design is reaching completion we don't need any french collaboration, instead they are the one offering their pump jet propulsion without us even asking,
I would suggest you go though P75A Wikipedia page

Project 75 Alpha - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The making of the "Ghost Submarines" of India - Alpha Defense

The submarines under project 75 Alpha for the Indian Navy are ghost submarines in the making. They are stealthy.

web.archive.org

A quite good article on our SSN progress, it will use the same reactor as S5 class subs and will be propelled by a 35MW pump jet that is under prototype development phase

https://twitter.com/x/status/1320175768438190080

 

[kmc_chacko]

as per the operational requirements by 2040-50 IN plans to have around 40-50 subs which might be in like 18-24 SSKs, 10-15 SSNs & 6-9 SSBNs.

L&T is already building undisclosed numbers of SSNs & SSBNs as GoI not want to keep bays idle for longer period.

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

Why stop at 10 let's make it 20, bro do you even understand how much firepower just 5 S5 class SSBN can bring.
16 ICBMs with only 3 modest MIRV warheads means each sub will carry 40-48 warheads and there would be 5 such subs, even if only 2 or 3 are at active Sea patrol that means 80-120 mated warheads, that's like 90% of our total warheads
[/MEDIA]

Bro I don't usually get along with big talkers, including Indian and Pakistani military planners and leaders. They mostly do propagate or downgrade the capabilities to the general public.

As a pinch of salt and more practical than radical, I believe that Arihant is a 1st generation sub for us and S5 SSBN is in the planning stage since 2006.

More practical - as mentioned, we need to collaborate with western countries and possibly get more advanced SSBM and SSN submarines.

We don't need SSBN for looking at pakistan, we already have much better and bigger geographical area, we wouldn't need SSBN for Pakistan

We need such SSBN and SSN to reach near the Chinese mainland safely, undetected, and patrol as needed at international waters, even far from home or whoever will be joining war against us.

Looking at arihant class it is not that capable as of now. deploying her near chinese mainland, could be risky and the probability of success would be 50-50.

 

[125mm_Smoothbore]

Looking at arihant class it is not that capable as of now. deploying her near chinese mainland, could be risky and the probability of success would be 50-50.

but why would arihant need to go to chinese shores it isn't an ssn
we can target both shanghai and beijing from bay of bengal using k4 slbm

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

but why would arihant need to go to chinese shores it isn't an ssn
we can target both shanghai and beijing from bay of bengal using k4 slbmView attachment 37181View attachment 37182

Yes it needs to, as you fires from long distance, more chances for it will get intercepted

And who other countries will be agreed to fly nuclear missiles over their mainlands?

Worst scenario, what if missiles get fail in midway. We are talking about nuclear armed missiles.

 

[125mm_Smoothbore]

Yes it needs to, as you fires from long distance, more chances for it will get intercepted

true due to increased flight time

And who other countries will be agreed to fly nuclear missiles over their mainlands?

if its in case of nuclear war i dont think that would matter too much since everyone would die

Worst scenario, what if missiles get fail in midway. We are talking about nuclear armed missiles.

that case may happen with one or two but 8-16 missiles no chance