Why Turkey’s joining BRICS should be welcomed
It came as no surprise when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan showed interest in joining the BRICS at the Johannesburg Summit recently on 27 July, where he was invited by the South African President Ramaphosa. BRICS would become BRICST if Turkey is allowed into the grouping.
Loosely interpreted as a grouping comprising Emerging Market Economies that are trying to seek an alternative to the current international economic order, the BRICS represent some of the most populous and economically important countries of the global South. It now comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. There are no rules of entry to the BRICS. Turkey is a large middle income country, a member of NATO, an Islamic nation and currently bearing a grouse against the EU and the US. It has challenged in the past the hegemony of the western countries in the world economic order and their dominance and control over the international financial institutions, the IMF and the World Bank. It has also challenged the supremacy of the dollar in the world financial system.
The BRICS summit in Johannesburg marked a decade of its existence. Even though nothing dramatic seems to be happening in BRICS summit meetings except reiteration of their pledges made in the past, they are an important marker of the challenges that the five are throwing at the workings of the current global order year after year. Throughout the year, about 100 meetings related to the BRICS are held in the country hosting the summit. There are leaders’ meetings and ministerial meetings along with their relevant working groups on diverse subjects from economy to climate change and culture. The meetings stress on democracy and pursue equality of voting rights in their working. Compared to the US dominated G7, BRICS functioning mechanism is more equal.
The rising protectionism in the western countries is hurting many of the BRICS members directly and indirectly. Thus it is not surprising that the BRICS members resolved to adapt the global order for a more Asia centric world at the Johannesburg meeting. Turkey obviously shares the BRICS declaration projecting stability and predictability of a rule based order threatened by US President Trump. China’s predicament is the worst in Trump’s recent moves towards his protectionist stance because its manufacturing capacity is the largest in the world in steel, machinery, chemicals, high-speed rail and aerospace. Its exports to the US ($505.6 billion last year) will be curtailed but so also its imports ($130.4 billion) comprising mainly of agricultural products. The BRICS members can benefit from the increase in imports from them instead of the US in the future. Brazil has benefited from China’s increase in imports of soyabeans and frozen pork after US imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods.
The members of the BRICS in Johannesburg also recommitted support for multilateralism and called upon all member countries of WTO to abide by its rules. They emphasised the central role of the UN in international affairs. They called upon all countries to fully implement the Paris Agreement. The grouping has tried hard again to reduce mutual ignorance among the member countries and has tried to increase and strengthen intra BRICS ties because even though all have strong economic ties with China, there are fewer ties among each other. Overcoming intra-BRICS obstacles of various kinds, especially in tourism, was also discussed in Johannesburg.
An important area where the BRICS members have pledged to cooperate is the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Challenges will emerge in the future in all BRICS members in the area of robotics, AI, block chains, nanotechnology, quantum computing and biotechnology, 3D printing, the Internet of Things and driverless vehicles. China has taken the global lead in many of these areas and collaborative research will be beneficial for all the members. Russia too has abundant expertise in military industry, higher education in science and technology and has excellent research institutions.
Turkey hopes to gain from the technology cooperation with the BRICS in the future. It has been trying to get a missile defence system with potential Chinese and Russian suppliers and also a third nuclear plant with Chinese technology. The Turkish economy is going through a rough patch currently because its exports are not doing well due to the instabilities in its neighborhood and contraction in demand for its products globally, especially after the failed coup attempt in July 2016. Its imports, especially from the BRICS members, have been rising and its current account deficit with them is the highest — mainly with China. A big support for Turkey’s membership to the BRICS has come from China. Turkey can hope to increase exports to BRICS members after joining the grouping. It can also access infrastructural development loans from the AIIB and the NDB, the two newly established BRICS banks.
The group has been viewed as not being cohesive because India and China have had geopolitical confrontation along the borders in the recent past but it has now been overtaken by the declaration of mutual interests, strategic cooperation and collaboration in the last two BRICS summits.
On the whole, the dynamism displayed by BRICS members in the economic front cannot be denied. Russia was facing economic hardships in the past due to the steep fall in oil and gas prices, but it is on the path of recovery and growing at around 1.4 percent. The fundamentals of the BRICS are strong and stable, even though they are all facing domestic problems and challenges. They are all unique in being resource rich and have enormous potential for development.
The BRICS economic growth rate in 2016 was at 5 percent, higher than developing countries by 0.9 percent and higher than developed countries by 3.3 percentage points. They account for more than 30 percent of the global economy in overall size and their contribution to global growth reached 60 percent, far surpassing that of G7 economies. While the G7 is 40 years old, the BRICS is only a decade old. It will expand in the future and become stronger and have a voice in global governance and the international financial system. Turkey will add to its becoming more diverse, and due to its strategic location, an important addition.
Why Turkey’s joining BRICS should be welcomed
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