India Economy Thread

I beg to differ in this regard since I work on the software sector here in Canada for an Indian firm. The large Indian tech companies were never really good at building world class products and selling them. They were however, very successful as implementation partners for companies like SAP, Oracle, AWS, Azure, GCP where they continue to make good money. So, even if Indian companies are not focusing on building LLMs, they will be the partner of choice when companies want to make AI transformations. Already, these companies are investing huge money in training their employees on AI, depending on the role with a focus on Agentic AI and RAG. Developers too are already getting plugins like GitHub copilot to go with their IDE to improve productivity. These companies have people working in fortune 500 companies at every level and hence have people who understand the business in and out coupled with technology.

This is why they'll have an advantage . Having said that, AI will take away a lot of development and maintenance work from these companies and they will invariably have to reduce their workforce.

There are some Indians that have created good AI platforms like Emergent
The majority of companies are just starting to get to grips with the concept of large language models, remembering that senior management are not exactly going to go head first into deploying a new technology that is moving quickly.

Ultimately you'll need to align to some sort of applicable AI strategy and this is a green field endeavour for the world, more or less

You do not know the scale the areas or the use cases, this has to be internally resolved. so I cannot understand how some guys sitting in India will be able to provide any expertise on something no one has really done, the only way would be to repeat the original it boom where consultants will be taught potential business use cases and then demonstrably deliver economic benefit.
 
The majority of companies are just starting to get to grips with the concept of large language models, remembering that senior management are not exactly going to go head first into deploying a new technology that is moving quickly.

Ultimately you'll need to align to some sort of applicable AI strategy and this is a green field endeavour for the world, more or less

You do not know the scale the areas or the use cases, this has to be internally resolved. so I cannot understand how some guys sitting in India will be able to provide any expertise on something no one has really done, the only way would be to repeat the original it boom where consultants will be taught potential business use cases and then demonstrably deliver economic benefit.


When a utility or water company actually wants to deploy this stuff, who are they calling? Some brand new AI strategy shop, or Infosys/Wipro/TCS the same vendors who’ve been running their systems for decades?
India may not build all the cutting edge models, but implementation is where the real work is. And that’s exactly what Indian IT is good at.
 
What is missing in both countries is the organized capacity of the majority to force redistribution onto the political agenda.

By Asif Ullah Khan
January 21, 2026

thediplomat_2026-01-21-202035.jpg

India and Pakistan are often described as economic opposites — one rising, the other perennially in crisis. Yet when viewed through the prism of power and wealth, the distinction collapses.

What exists on both sides of the border is not simply inequality, but elite rule: a “Billionaire Raj” in India and a “Consolidated Elite” in Pakistan. Different names, different textures, but the same underlying logic, an economic order designed to accumulate wealth upward and insulate it from democratic pressure.

Perhaps the most catastrophic finding of recent inequality research is not statistical but political: the near-disappearance of a credible Left across the subcontinent. In Pakistan, power rotates through what can only be described as an elite carousel, where governments change, but priorities remain static. In India, the narrative of a “National Champion” economy masks a deeper failure. While China used growth to move vast numbers into the middle class, almost all of India’s population remains trapped within the global bottom 50 percent. Growth occurred, but redistribution did not.

The difference between India and Pakistan is structural, rather than moral or ideological. India’s defenders often point to headline growth figures and poverty reduction. And by narrow metrics — particularly those used by institutions such as the World Bank — India appears relatively egalitarian. Consumption-based Gini indices, which measure how unevenly people spend rather than how unevenly they earn or own, place inequality at modest levels.

According to the World Inequality Report 2026, produced by the World Inequality Lab, India’s top 1 percent now controls over 40 percent of national wealth. The top 10 percent own nearly two-thirds. The bottom half, by contrast, owns almost nothing.

This outcome is not accidental. India’s post-pandemic recovery has been decisively K-shaped. Financial assets, real estate, and corporate profits surged, while real wages stagnated. The number of billionaires more than doubled within a decade, even as millions are pushed into poverty each year by healthcare costs alone. Growth has continued, but it has become asset-led, exclusionary, and increasingly dynastic.

The modern Indian state has not merely tolerated this trajectory. It has actively facilitated it through tax concessions, privatization, weak labor protections, and chronic underinvestment in public health and education. Political power increasingly orbits capital rather than citizens.

Pakistan’s elite structure looks different, but it operates no less efficiently. There has been no comparable explosion of billionaires. Instead, Pakistan exhibits something more entrenched: elite consolidation.

The richest 10 percent capture over 40 percent of national income and nearly 60 percent of total wealth. The bottom half survives on less than one-fifth. Unlike India, these ratios barely change over time. Crisis does not disrupt the hierarchy; it reinforces it.

Here, inflation erodes food security rather than comfort. A health emergency does not interrupt life; it locks families into intergenerational debt. Yet the burden of adjustment — through indirect taxes, subsidy cuts, and austerity — falls consistently on those least able to bear it.

Pakistan’s elite is not merely wealthy; it is politically embedded. Land, capital, contracts, and exemptions circulate through closed networks that survive regime change and economic collapse alike. Parties rotate. Power does not.

India’s Billionaire Raj thrives on growth; Pakistan’s Consolidated Elite thrives on stagnation. But both systems share four defining features. Wealth is rewarded over work. Survival is privatized. Taxation is regressive, leaning heavily on consumption while treating wealth gently. And politics is closed –unions weakened, student movements crushed, the language of class replaced by charity.

Inequality in both countries persists not because it is inevitable, but because it is politically protected.

Neither India nor Pakistan lacks policy blueprints. Progressive taxation, universal healthcare, public education, and social protection are well understood. What is missing is the organized capacity of the majority to force redistribution onto the political agenda.

In both countries, the poor appear in speeches and surveys, but not at negotiating tables. Without collective mobilization — through labor, students, farmers, and unions — elite rule remains stable regardless of who governs.

The Billionaire Raj in India and the Consolidated Elite in Pakistan are not anomalies. They are the natural outcomes of economic systems that reward accumulation while suppressing redistribution. One system wears the gloss of growth; the other bears the scars of crisis. Both produce the same result: wealth without accountability, poverty without voice.

Whether it is the Billionaire Raj in India or the Consolidated Elite in Pakistan, the outcome is identical. Prosperity does not trickle down, it accumulates upward, protected by power and policy.
 
GDP is measured with average exchange rates over a period, not daily forex movements.
Real GDP growth matters more while nominal GDP sells more.

Then there will be base year revision in february that'll add some in documented GDP.

Right but march is still 2 months away and rupee is already near 92. Hopefully this rebasing is less controversial then previous one which I doubt bcz current Indian regime love inflated GDP.
 
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which I doubt bcz current Indian regime love inflated GDP.
Inflated by what?
 
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@hydrabadi_arab

Hydra bro,

This is despite India selling $30bn dollars on market in Octubre.

Who or what is "Octubre"? Some new trading platform?

Regards
 
More or less confirmed. Maybe the MTA contract for 80 aircraft could be landed by Embraer too making C-390 in India with Mahindra.

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GoI's AI strategy is unique and vastly different from the current players.

For the application layer (top layer), they are already preparing the large tech companies, professionals, students and researchers to take a prompt pivot.

For the second layer (the models), they are not looking to develop large and hugely costly LLMs that can handle almost everything, rather looking to develope 50-100 smaller and specific model clusters that can cumulatively handle 90-95% of the requirement making it extremely affordable.

For the third layer (chips), it's still dependent on others, though trying to catch up within 5 to 7 years.

For the fourth layer(data centres, GPUs, cloud and other infra), they are doing a public private partnership under govt umbrella to develop and make the infrastructure available to all at low and in some cases no cost.

For the fifth layer(energy), much work still remains.
 
Even with another controversial rebasing that will inflate Indian GDP to 400t. Rupee going to 100 will make GDP crawl back to under $4trillion anyway.

Good for Indian exports.

That must mean Indian economy is shrinking and Indians are getting poorer!
 
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If only we were not suffering from shrinking economy.
 
GoI's AI strategy is unique and vastly different from the current players.

For the application layer (top layer), they are already preparing the large tech companies, professionals, students and researchers to take a prompt pivot.

For the second layer (the models), they are not looking to develop large and hugely costly LLMs that can handle almost everything, rather looking to develope 50-100 smaller and specific model clusters that can cumulatively handle 90-95% of the requirement making it extremely affordable.

For the third layer (chips), it's still dependent on others, though trying to catch up within 5 to 7 years.

For the fourth layer(data centres, GPUs, cloud and other infra), they are doing a public private partnership under govt umbrella to develop and make the infrastructure available to all at low and in some cases no cost.

For the fifth layer(energy), much work still remains.


I wish you would share more details, so the application layer they are just preparing, pivoting to what?

For the second layer, what use cases are you actually developing for, if you are just saying a smaller model with fewer parameters, well this is what deep seek already done.

For the third layer, so you are dependent on chips from external parties.
 

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