India Economy Thread

[Yellow is Okay]

Lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty is an immense challenge. There are so many more individuals to support, educate, and address a wide range of societal issues. In my opinion, comparing India to other countries in this context is simply unfair.

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

Lol. In 2009, my boss with similar experience as i have today used to make 9 lakhs per annum, now i make 60 lakhs an annum.

Bhai - I said for common people.

With God blessings - even I am doing very well on economically but did all people growth the same way - no I doubt

 

[Indos]

Yes, and it bounced back with 20% growth after covid shock.
You used to make lots of Ind-Indo comparison threads previously, but when Indian growth went past ahead Indonesia, you lost all the enthusiasm.


View attachment 70893

No, I dont lost it. Check your Budget deficit and compare it to Indonesia. Your economic growth is fueled by gov debt, it is not a natural growth

 

[Indos]

No, I dont lost it. Check your Budget deficit and compare it to Indonesia. Your economic growth is fueled by gov debt, it is not a natural growth

India budget deficit is around 6 %, of GDP but only manage to grow at 6.7 % while Indonesia budget deficit is at 1.6 % of GDP and can have 5 % growth

 

[Faithfulguy]

No, I dont lost it. Check your Budget deficit and compare it to Indonesia. Your economic growth is fueled by gov debt, it is not a natural growth

I thought Indian growth is fuel by remittance. It’s the engine behind Indian growth.

 

[Indos]

I thought Indian growth is fuel by remittance. It’s the engine behind Indian growth.

Remittance is good for India forex reserve, it strengthen the Rupee and it is very important since India has yearly big trade deficit.

PE ratio of India stock exchange is also high, many Indian living in Western countries I expect contribute alot in this investment, it also help Rupee as well

 

[Cryptonian]

No, I dont lost it. Check your Budget deficit and compare it to Indonesia. Your economic growth is fueled by gov debt, it is not a natural growth

And indonesia did not ? Did Indonesian debt to GDP not rise 10% during pandemic , for India too it's 10%.

 

[Muji.Iqbal]

@Areesh
@Dalit

Yes I know its an old article.

But it was conceded that yes Pakistan has less poverty than India has.

Even the Hindustan Times admitted that.

 

[Nilgiri]

No, I dont lost it. Check your Budget deficit and compare it to Indonesia. Your economic growth is fueled by gov debt, it is not a natural growth

Figures from latest year available (2022 - 2024)

India (as % of GDP):

Govt debt: 82%
Corporate debt: 52%
Household debt: 36%

total: 170% of GDP

Mainland China (as % of GDP)

Govt debt: 89%
Corporate debt: 134%
Household debt: 61%

total: 284%

Would you say China growth is

a) govt debt fuelled? 89 > 82

b) debt fuelled in general? 284 > 170


When you look at Indonesia, there is a reason these %'s are lot lower.

Here is one clue regarding composition and size of market cap:

Largest Indonesian companies by market capitalization

List of the largest companies in Indonesia by market capitalization, all rankings are updated daily.

companiesmarketcap.com

Largest Indian companies by market capitalization

List of the largest companies in India by market capitalization, all rankings are updated daily.

companiesmarketcap.com

It is going off topic, we are talking about poverty where Indonesia has clearly done a better job to begin with....just like large parts of India has done better than other large parts.

 

[Thinking]

You may have missed an article from 1990 which is super relevant.

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

Comparison is invalid.

India is having more than 7-7 times population than both the countries.

More population means more challenges.

I don't see Pakistan and Bangladesh doing good even having the less population

 

[Thinking]

Indonesia once was decades ahead of India, matching the stride of those in neighborhood. Weird to compare those two. Indian government spends money on infra which Indonesia already has, better than India.

 

[Nilgiri]

Remittance is good for India forex reserve, it strengthen the Rupee and it is very important since India has yearly big trade deficit.

PE ratio of India stock exchange is also high, many Indian living in Western countries I expect contribute alot in this investment, it also help Rupee as well

More important than the remittance (given these are included in the current account) from NRI is the long term NRI bonds in capital account, about 150 billion USD of the 700 billion total now...and increasing as this is what can be leveraged for rest of capital account to form bedrock for larger investment and forex stability.

Indonesia again for its reason its different in forex/GDP ratio....affecting what I posted above too to some degree.

Hence why given Indonesia roughly x2 per capita GDP, and lower debt level of GDP (given what is on hand w.r.t market cap, NRI investment pool and other factors), the credit ratings for both are around BBB (i.e investment grade barely, but both countries have to structurally invest lot better this decade to improve).

 

[Nilgiri]

Pakistan would not be begging from the IMF if it had 1/6th of India's FOREX

Do not tell me the IMF prescriptions are not screwing Pakistan's poor

It is case of Pakistan's elite (and thus govt) living beyond their means....especially if you look at very low capital formation (investment) making it even worse....i.e the reason why elite have gone out of way to push a more hand-mouth consumption reliant economy with little investment compared to what could have been done (needing some larger social trust to do).

Of course the poor suffer the most from that even more...both upstream to it and downstream now.

Indian elite also clearly collectively live beyond their means (if you look at the relevant numbers concerning social development vs investment in say UP + Bihar, and gross inadequate transmission of the supply side growth to the lower rungs).....

....just because they run a tighter ship and social trust being higher overall (and India being a huge country to leverage) on it compared to Pakistan's elite/establishment/govt doesnt mean Indian poor are in better shape in some big way compared to Pakistan's poor (it depends as even the poor are vast populations to survey and compare)....both countries have inadequately invested into the matters at hand compared to what they could have.

Sri Lanka also had an IMF bailout because of their elite/govt. But Sri Lanka like South India invested a lot more into social development for the long run, hence their better performance on poverty too.

Argentina again its a huge elite/establishment thing that causes perennial problem there with IMF bailouts. Doesn't mean Argentine poor are automatically in same income/development rung as Indian poor.

 

[Musings]

Thread locked. I did say stop using poverty and hunger as a tool to have a jab at your neighbor. Move on guys.