India explores China’s Hotan corridor as Pakistan airspace ban drags on

[PK781]

A famous joke:

I’m going to challenge the P5 nations! But you aren't allowed to turn off your GPS... otherwise, my missiles won't be able to find where you are...

Thanks for your post about the sensitivity/security part of the region for the PLA. I remember you posted it before in another thread as well.

With it, it is suffice to say that indian airlines won't be getting those permissions.
india just learns everyday that stupid actions have consequences, severe ones in some cases. let them pile up the aviation sector losses to the benefit of all the others.

indians can ditch their own airlines and go with others! lolz

 

[r3alist]

That is certainly the right question to ask.

Chinese civilian airspace, in general, is already open to India and China and India have a huge economic relationship that dwarfs China's relationship with Pakistan and which must be mutually beneficial for it to have survived their geopolitical differences. So, as a matter of policy, China doesn't seem to be a party to Pakistan's economic restrictions on India and helping Western and Gulf airlines at the expense of Indian ones does not appear to be a core strategic priority for China.

As for access to the Hotan corridor, it will come down to how sensitive the issue is from a security perspective and what India could offer as a quid pro quo beyond the overflight fees Indian flights would pay. Some examples could be more flight slots for Chinese airlines or greater market access for Chinese companies.

In general, it is China's interest to have a good working relationship with all its neighbors, including India, so that it can continue to focus on the other challenges facing its people, most of whom live far from the border with India.

Nonsense, china wants India to take the sensible route and understand it's dreams of parity were farcical and they must now show sincerety that they accept this, India is just an okay to decent market, that's it

Multi non alignment is non alignment and decision paralysis will lead to India being the ping pong ball between USA and China.

If they had leverage we would see it

Pakistani denial of airspace is additionally causing Indian anxiety and strategic misdirection, which is what their partnership is about,l

 

[Owaiz]

Nonsense, china wants India to take the sensible route and understand it's dreams of parity were farcical and they must now show sincerety that they accept this, India is just an okay to decent market, that's it

Multi non alignment is non alignment and decision paralysis will lead to India being the ping pong ball between USA and China.

If they had leverage we would see it

Pakistani denial of airspace is additionally causing Indian anxiety and strategic misdirection, which is what their partnership is about,l

I have absolutely no idea what that word salad is supposed to mean.

 

[r3alist]

I have absolutely no idea what that word salad is supposed to mean.

The Indians are grovelling to their primary adversary to use their airspace, because their smaller adversary is denying them airspace

Pakistan china pincer, very obvious

 

[Owaiz]

The Indians are grovelling to their primary adversary to use their airspace, because their smaller adversary is denying them airspace

Pakistan china pincer, very obvious

China and India have their problems, but neither is the primary adversary of the other. They do not have centuries old civilizational conflicts like India and Pakistan or China and Japan and the centre of gravity of their populations are far from the border areas that are unresolved.

Pakistan and China have been close partners, but China has its own independent relationship with Pakistan's adversaries just like Pakistan has its owh independent relationship with China's adversaries and at the end of the day China will prioritise its own interests , just like Pakistan will.

I don't see how it is a core strategic imperative for China whether passengers flying from New Delhi to New York take a United or Air India flight, especially now that the Singaporean government owns a substantial chunk of Air India and the Indian government owns none of it.

 

[r3alist]

but neither is the primary adversary of the other

This is such an Indian take, if India does not see China as it's chief adversary this implies Pakistan is actually consuming the majority of Indian power projection,and it still can't overmatch Pakistan.

What about Tibet and the entire border issue, and Chinese stake in Kashmir, quad, USA logistics agreement , sindoor help


Of course you ignore these friendly acts

don't see how it is a core strategic imperative for China

It doesn't have to be, it's just the pincer attack in action.if china gains leverage for no effort, as well as making India look ridiculous

After all its china who influences south Asian nations and now the biggest one is coming to it for a bailout

 

[Owaiz]

This is such an Indian take, if India does not see China as it's chief adversary this implies Pakistan is actually consuming the majority of Indian power projection,and it still can't overmatch Pakistan.

What about Tibet and the entire border issue, and Chinese stake in Kashmir, quad, USA logistics agreement , sindoor help


Of course you ignore these friendly acts



It doesn't have to be, it's just the pincer attack in action.if china gains leverage for no effort, as well as making India look ridiculous

After all its china who influences south Asian nations and now the biggest one is coming to it for a bailout

If China and not Pakistan were India's primary adversary, India would not be doing hundred of billions of dollars of trade with China and not banning it completely with Pakistan and it would not have fought four full fledged wars with Pakistan and had only limited border conflicts ( one of which was fought with only sticks and stones) with China.

Relative to the size and capability of Pakistan and China's militaries, most of India's force projection is towards the West. The same is also true for China's force projection against India relative to other theatres.

China and India do not have friendly relations but India cooperates a lot more with China than with Pakistan and China does not become an election issue in India like Pakistan does.

As for Hotan, it would actually give China more leverage over India if Indian flights became dependent on a Chinese concession over its airspace for a commercially viable route to Europe and North America. So, assuming that security sensitivities about flying over Hotan airspace can be addressed, why should China not try to increase its leverage over India and obtain some additional reciprocal concessions when it already has a trade relationship worth hundreds of billions of dollars a year with India ?

 

[Michael]

With it, it is suffice to say that indian airlines won't be getting those permissions.

Strictly speaking, I wouldn't fully endorse that statement of yours.

Airspace management in China has long been absolutely dominated by the PLAAF. Airspace resources available to civil aviation are under the PLAAF's strict control.
For a long time, the PLAAF has opened only about 20% of the airspace for civil aviation use. This has frequently led to congestion along flight paths and subsequent delays for Chinese civil flights.
Chinese civil aviation companies and regulatory bodies have repeatedly requested—during government meetings—that the PLAAF open up more airspace. The PLAAF’s response is invariably: "We will give it serious consideration..." "We are studying it..." or "We are planning for it..." Yet, actual progress has been exceptionally slow.

Currently, the airspace available to Chinese civil aviation has expanded to roughly 34%.

However, even within the airspace designated for civil aviation, emergency closures due to military exercises occur frequently. In China, it is very common for flights to be forced to detour, face delays, or enter holding patterns due to "airspace restrictions." Often, the actual time spent traveling by air far exceeds the time required for high-speed rail.

As China continues its reforms, the PLAAF is set to open more airspace for civil aviation, including airspace over Northwest China.

Therefore, I cannot say that Indian flights will never be able to use this airspace. Once the PLAAF permits civil aviation access to these areas, any civil aviation company—including those from India—will be able to apply for access.

However, this is a matter of Chinese state administration; it has absolutely nothing to do with the current "reckless behavior" of the Indian civil aviation sector.

 

[r3alist]

If China and not Pakistan were India's primary adversary, India would not be doing hundred of billions of dollars of trade with China

India is not a significant or crucial trading partner, therefore trade is not an impediment to a contest

India has nothing crucial which that world cannot live without, china has rare earth processing monopoly


So china can use Indian export market and it's no big deal

Relative to the size and capability of Pakistan and China's militaries, most of India's force projection is towards the West

Yes, they don't know what they are doing

As for Hotan, it would actually give China more leverage over India if Indian flights became dependent on a Chinese

I said this.

So it's literally a pincer

 

[Yasser76]

If China and not Pakistan were India's primary adversary, India would not be doing hundred of billions of dollars of trade with China and not banning it completely with Pakistan and it would not have fought four full fledged wars with Pakistan and had only limited border conflicts ( one of which was fought with only sticks and stones) with China.

Relative to the size and capability of Pakistan and China's militaries, most of India's force projection is towards the West. The same is also true for China's force projection against India relative to other theatres.

China and India do not have friendly relations but India cooperates a lot more with China than with Pakistan and China does not become an election issue in India like Pakistan does.

As for Hotan, it would actually give China more leverage over India if Indian flights became dependent on a Chinese concession over its airspace for a commercially viable route to Europe and North America. So, assuming that security sensitivities about flying over Hotan airspace can be addressed, why should China not try to increase its leverage over India and obtain some additional reciprocal concessions when it already has a trade relationship worth hundreds of billions of dollars a year with India ?

Cope harder Vishnu

 

[Master Chief]

I have absolutely no idea what that word salad is supposed to mean.

Surprising. A career vegetarian like you should have no trouble consuming any sort of salad.

 

[Vikramaditya1]

There are extremely strict restrictions on overflights by foreign aircraft in these areas. These restrictions apply not only to India

It's mostly because it's dangerous. There is a limited window for emergencies, limited number of airports and extremely dangerous terrain. If this route is opened at all, only a limited number of airlines go through with it.

 

[Meengla]

The Indians are grovelling to their primary adversary to use their airspace, because their smaller adversary is denying them airspace
Pakistan china pincer, very obvious

To what extent the Chinese would go to back Pakistan against India when the Chinese supplied the critical missiles to Pakistan in the 2025 conflict between India and Pakistan? Years ago, the PDF Indians used to say stuff like China would never too much side with Pakistan against India because of India's deep pockets. But that was a miscalculation by the Indians, perhaps fed by a little too much love by the hugs starting with Bill Clinton's 2000 visit to India.
As for this topic, I am surprised by the impact of the Pakistani air space denial on the Indian airlines. Seems huge impact!