Fair enough. Let's talk about it.
First of all what is the source of this claim? Also 2020-2021 was the height of COVID lockdown. I doubt anyone dared going out to get unemployment data.
Go through latest data below.
URL
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World Bank data
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So, in short it seems to be decreasing. We may not have to worry much.
This. This is why all these professor type folks are never reliable. Especially if one is named as "Ashoka Mody". Social science is mostly a joke these days. Unlike hard science, it is never tested against reality. So all the opinions are taken as gospel truths. Here is a blast from his past, his stupid sass and idiotic arse!
He in 1987 recommended India to invest in low-level electronic component manufacturing and focus on hardware system design while software should not be an area of focus because, in his own words,
Finally, the simplest and the lowest value added activity involves writing instructions for the computer to perform certain application. This activity is generally thought of as the 'software' sector and probably constitutes between a half and two-thirds of the Indian 'design-intensive' sector. Included in the sector are venerables such as Tata Burroughs and Tata Consultancy Services, which together account for more than half of India's $ 20 million software exports.
This was laughable even back in 80s. Visionaries like Bill Gates and entire silicon valley had realized the potential of software and entire industry was growing phenomenally. It is funny for this chap, back then a World Bank employee and a graduate of Princeton in Economic with a background in electronics would think that. Something Tatas of India foresaw and he missed! He though software as "the lowest value add". HA!
There is a famous line in "Fire in the valley" when Bill Gates is negotiating a deal with Altair computers in 1980 or so. "Your Computer is marvellous! But it needs our software to function. Otherwise it just sits there and blinks". LOL! Software was and even today is the highest value add in computation. Its the most expensive product out there.
The software sector has been the focus of policy rhetoric It has been 'projected' by theDepartment of Electronics (DOE) that Indian software exports could be around $250 million by 1990, a more than 10-fold increase in less than 5 years. While the current low base is certainly an advantage for achieving high growth rates, the DOE targets are unlikely to be realised for a number of reasons:
It is noteworthy, India software exports grew to 131 million dollars by the end of 1990 and 219 in 1992. Admittedly lower than 250 million that DoE but certainly nowhere near the kind of dismissal that he was basing his recommendation on. Software indeed outgrew ALL other forms of export in electronics from India.
(3) Finally, the exports of the Tata firms(and some other smaller players) have been based on the need to upgrade and modify existing software. This market is created by the progress in computer hardware. There is some indication that the market is unlikely to grow and may even dwindle as hardware designers have been made increasingly condous of maintaining compatibility with existing software.
This is laughable beyond measure. This is an article from 1987. Lets see some numbers..
Even back in 1987, it should have been clear to ANYONE with a single working neuron that software was an area of high growth (30-50% per year). And then this moron suggests that "
There is some indication that the market is unlikely to grow and may even dwindle". What the ACTUAL ****! Was he stupid or demented? Its one of the few areas which became a billion dollar export from almost 0 in just 15-16 years!
And Mr Ashok Mody's recommendation was and I quote!
The emphasis should be on the production of components: passive components and simple semiconductor devices, such as small scale (and possibly some large scale) integrated circuits. The export of black and white and colour TVs could be a possibility if the component base is improved and scales of production are increased. In the design intensive sector, the emphasis should be on hardware and systems design; while the software sector should be promoted, less hopes should be placed on it.
Yup! This is what this idiot had recommended as a economic "genious". Now we have seen the reality as this is history. So excuse me if I do not give ANY credence to this idiot's opinion.
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