RamBharose
SpeedLimited
There was a considerable lament when the INR crossed the =90 mark just three weeks back.
So what's changed? Will it be back to 85.75 as it was at the beginning of 2025 ?
Ram ram ji,
The Indian government generally favors a weaker rupee, so that exports stay competitive and imports are discouraged and people buy more "Made in India". Trump Sahab has repeatedly called out India, along with other countries, for keeping their currencies weak by manipulating them.
The Indian government has been happy to see the INR gradually weaken to help exporters, who were under pressure because of the tariffs. Because oil prices had been well-behaved and inflation in India was well below the RBI target, the government didn't have to worry about the tradeoff.
I doubt the Indian government would want a substantial strengthening of the rupee unless inflation goes above target. Also, with President Trump Sahab announcing Warsh Sahab as replacement for Powell Sahab instead of someone more pliable and dovish on inflation, I think the dollar is likely to stay structurally strong.
So, in a nutshell, unless the US slips into a deep recession and the Fed has to aggressively lower rates and India can't keep pace because that would overheat the economy or unless President Trump Sahab himself demands that trading partners strengthen their currencies to help US exports, the it is unlikely the INR will appreciate substantially from here.





