Hard to say, but looks like Pakistani Establishment will be the biggest benefactor as of now.. in this fog of incident.
They are in dire straits as they are in need of validation from the Pakistani Public, which is a new dilemma for them. Any retaliation from our side, in passion will give them exactly what they need.
But then who knows? What if the terror groups have been orphaned by Establishment, and somehow found a way to find relevance with this event? Everyone can see that the old heads being bumped off, couldn't happen without the support of Establishment and the ceasefire somehow holds steady through all these incidents.
I will throw in a new twist: With the kind of penetration China has into GB , could they try to become new Daddy's of these groups for benefit? Whole world is under pressure, whether its self relevance or tariff war.
We will have to wait for now.....
If you see social media and mood on ground - it is MUCH more difficult to change than perception with such acts.
One of the FIRST comments on a news article on this was “Drama by ISI” - so this doesn’t make sense as a move.
The orphaned group idea does hold value since they are likely more to focus on non-combatants because it’s an easier target.
However , this does play into the idea of “Kashmir isn’t solved” which BJP has been pushing.
Lets see the optics of it -
Vance sees Kashmir needs to be solved , buys into Pakistan is sponsoring it and goes on a statement - establishment reacts and says its an issue.
In parallel Modi lands in KSA - sees this - talks to MBS who is looking to court Indian money and investment AND reciprocate - sends a message to establishment who say “it’s not us but we told you it wasn’t dead”
From a strategic perspective it’s a very pointless move(and not saying PK hasn’t done some idiotic pointless moves) but it has little impact domestically
UNLESS
India launches an all out conflict -
Not limited strikes - not tit for tat because it doesn’t kill the anti army sentiment Ive personally measured on the ground.
So I don’t see a wider conspiracy here but more so a case of either independent cell or independent actors.
Remember, what’s lost on all the angry folks here is that any larger conspiracy is difficult to keep under wraps due to moving pieces.
