Indian false flag and current Indo-Pak stand-off updates

[CombatCorner]

This in essence is what's called small people in big offices.
Apart from others, the recent incident of Train hijacking in Balochistan gave Pakistan every excuse to suspend ties with Gangus, but mad Modi and the rest of Delhi drama queens desparate to show their gullible public how tough they are.
Last time it was India begging Pakistan to open its air space .

 

[r3alist]

By provocation, I meant it could be India doing it now as a response to this Pahalgam massacre.

Pak will stick to it's 'non state actors' line, now they're saying its an Indian homegrown "rebel/separatist/terrorist/whatchacallems" issue.

We don't know yet, but the Pak fauj did need a distraction from all the mounting discontent with them by their own awam, this takes the heat off them and gets you lot all rallying behind them once again.

India do have solid ground for 'reasonable suspicion', the Pakistan Army is an 'entity of interest'

I'm hoping they don't resort to any sort of knee-jerk military retaliation, our guys.

Plenty of options now to exploit and make lemonade from this most tragic event, if you can distance yourself from the emotion of it all. No need for eye for an eye when we can put the squeeze on diplomatically and slowly drain the life force out of the Pak fauj.

Have their popularity numbers seen a sudden burst with this yet ? Likely not, but any ill thought out response from India at this delicate stage might just. Pak awam still don;t like em much, we shouldn't do anything to change that and have you lot galvanizing around them.

As Trump would say, there's still a big beautiful fracture and no love lost between many in Pak and their fauj.

Keep it that way while we plan, take the sympathy from the world, demonize Pak fauj further..

in short: no sudden moves, tricky pitch now. We have our whole La Dinastia lefty brigade full in lock step with random Pakistani trolls who will chide Modi about how he's weak etc.. Modi, I'm hoping is too smart to bite.

Lets see, but.. interesting times, eh ?

The statement from Pak chief ... then this, hard not to relate the two


I don't think there is much further discrediting to be done on Pak, what can be done above the last 20 years, soft power approach etc won't do much

Plus the world has bigger stories, with everything going on this event may not stand out, the attack.

this is a hard power move, a gloves are off type of move

If anything this will galvaniSe rallying behind the flag and army

If this starts having a visible impact then Pakistan will have to go to the unsc, un treaty no, how does India justify it

China may involve itself

India I think might have USA backing

 

[-OG-]

India revoking the Indus Water Treaty is counterintuitive and sets a dangerous precedent for the region. Pakistan isn’t the only country downstream of shared rivers—others, like China, are closely watching. In the event of a future conflict, this move could give China a casus belli to justify restricting the flow of the Brahmaputra. It’s a zero-sum game—and in trying to assert leverage, India may have undermined its own long-term strategic position.

Is this knee jerk reaction from india going to stop the violence in Kashmir?, not by a long shot. Infact, i feel that Pakistan is going to double down, it support cross-border infiltration like in the 90s.

China if already doing this. 4 dams one one river right by the border. Maybe India is taking a leaf out of China's book.

 

[the vicious kind]

Isn't that a rather big assumption, that China would switch our taps off if we switched yours off ?

and jump into a conflict with India because 'honey very sweet and mountains are tall' ?

Why do you think the Chineese are building dams in Tibet? some of them are situated approximately 30 kilometers from the Indian border. They are way ahead of you and even us when it comes to investing infrastructur with their policy dubbed "hydro-dominance "

They already build 11 major dams on the Mekong River, Now they fully controll the flow of water towards Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

 

[r3alist]

Isn't that a rather big assumption, that China would switch our taps off if we switched yours off ?

and jump into a conflict with India because 'honey very sweet and mountains are tall' ?

But china has significant strategic investment in Pak, this comes under the existential crisis sort of category

What consequences might china face if it took action on water downstream to India?

Who would India complain to?

 

[Meengla]

IMO, suspension of IWT is nothing but a hog wash to placate Indian awam. Without having a solid plan to divert the water to somewhere else, GoI, by mere declaration, cannot stop the water from flowing downstream. Such is the nature of water. Even constructing additional dams also can prevent the water flow for a while only, I.e., till these new reservoirs get full. After that the water will keep flowing downstream.

I don't buy the 'hogwash' theory. India could have pulled its ambassador out of Pakistan, could have gone to the UNSC, could have even severed diplomatic ties, could have stopped all trade. A treaty like IWT which has stood the test of testy times for 65 years is suspended over a relatively minor incident where India has yet to provide any evidence of official Pakistani help to yesterday's attack shows something else is going on.

We don't know yet, but the Pak fauj did need a distraction from all the mounting discontent with them by their own awam, this takes the heat off them and gets you lot all rallying behind them once again.

Absolutely wrong. The Imran Khan chaos is ending in Pakistan. All major pillars of power in Pakistan, even the judiciary, now are in alignment. There is no need for any 'distraction'. You are pandering to the Imran Khan crowd here. Cheap tactic.

The Indus Water Treaty is brokered by the World Bank and rattified by the UN. Unilaterally walking away would destroy India’s international image. IWT doesn’t have a specific exit clause and your will probably lose the case in hague.

What law? There is no law left. It is a jungle out there. There is no UNSC which is relevant. There is no ICC/ICJ which is relevant.

 

[5thgenEnjoyer]

Isn't that a rather big assumption, that China would switch our taps off if we switched yours off ?

and jump into a conflict with India because 'honey very sweet and mountains are tall' ?

Yes, it is a bold assumption to assume that they would turn the taps off if India did the same for Pakistan.
I am overall unsure how much they truly value the strategic position and projects within Pakistan.
However, my point primarily lay in the precedent being set

 

[Olympus81]

Posting after a long time.

Condolences to the family of the innocent.

Condemn the terrorist attack, whoever did it.

And hope sanity prevails.

 

[Waz]

Why do you think the Chineese are building dams in Tibet? some of them are situated approximately 30 kilometers from the Indian border. They are way ahead of you and even us when it comes to investing infrastructur with their policy dubbed "hydro-dominance "

They already build 11 major dams on the Mekong River, Now they fully controll the flow of water towards Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

No they haven't really started on Indian rivers yet, they are waiting. The Ganga and Sutlej would be hit massively. But anyway off-topic.

 

[NA71]

NCA meeting headed by PM is underway....Pakistan will respond to Indian actions.....

 

[Rockford]

Why do you think the Chineese are building dams in Tibet? some of them are situated approximately 30 kilometers from the Indian border. They are way ahead of you and even us when it comes to investing infrastructur with their policy dubbed "hydro-dominance "

They already build 11 major dams on the Mekong River, Now they fully controll the flow of water towards Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

But the difference lies in the volume of water to the downstream country , around 80% of water in Brahmaputra rives comes from its tributaries present in Arunachal only , so China can very well flood Assam but it won't impact the amount of water India gets from the River.

 

[Waz]

Isn't that a rather big assumption, that China would switch our taps off if we switched yours off ?

and jump into a conflict with India because 'honey very sweet and mountains are tall' ?

Back channel messages were sent to the BJP government the first time round when Modi threatened it. He quietened down. It was widely reported in the press at the time. Now it's case of we will take our 'share' of the waters, which Pakistan sign up for.

 

[r3alist]

Firstly, it will take India up to a decade to produce enough infrastructure to properly affect the flow of the Indus and its Tributaries. In this time, the Chinese could do exactly the same given the precedent that India would set, putting the Ganges and Brahmaputra at risk and effectively countering them in that regard....

For now, the suspension of the IWT won't have many real consequences

The Indus Water Treaty is brokered by the World Bank and rattified by the UN. Unilaterally walking away would destroy India’s international image. IWT doesn’t have a specific exit clause and your will probably lose the case in hague.

More dangerously, it will give China a potential justification to block or divert Brahmaputra waters flowing from Tibet to India. That’s a strategic backfire.

On top of that, it will push an entire country towards the wall and force the entire subcontinent to the brink of nuclear escalation. A subcontinent where India is surrounded by enemies onall fronts . You guys just played yo self !

The trumpian world order is lawless

Every man for himself

Pakistan has never had a hearing in the west anyway

The usa to target china will allow India to target Pakistan

China likely do not want war on top of tariffs

 

[gamaji]

India revoking the Indus Water Treaty is counterintuitive and sets a dangerous precedent for the region. Pakistan isn’t the only country downstream of shared rivers—others, like China, are closely watching. In the event of a future conflict, this move could give China a casus belli to justify restricting the flow of the Brahmaputra. It’s a zero-sum game—and in trying to assert leverage, India may have undermined its own long-term strategic position.

Is this knee jerk reaction from india going to stop the violence in Kashmir?, not by a long shot. Infact, i feel that Pakistan is going to double down, it support cross-border infiltration like in the 90s.

Revoking the Indus Water Treaty by India may be a blessing in disguise for Pakistan. BTW, that would not be called revoking the treaty by India. It was not granted by India. It was signed as equal parties. Even though this international treaty has guarantors, India, under a sick-minded criminal Modi, can go ahead and withdraw from it. That would be equivalent to India turning rogue on an international treaty.

Gen Ayub cowardly surrendered three rivers (Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej) to India under that treaty. Politics aside, drying up three big rivers had very grave environmental impact for not only Pakistan but also the region. If the treaty is gone, Pakistan can re-claim these three rivers back to their natural course/flow. Pakistan militarily is in much better condition as compared to when it was signed.

 

[Ak01]

I'd love to volunteer too, from hunting partridges with buckshot to hunting lindus with a 7.62x39mm, may God let me see that day.

sign me up