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Manufacturing PMI Reaches 53.8, A Sign of Indonesia’s Economic Recovery?
Zahwa Madjid, CNBC Indonesia
02 March 2026 20:40
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Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — Indonesia’s manufacturing performance showed an expansionary trend in February 2026. The Indonesia Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.8, up from 52.6 in January 2026, marking the highest level in nearly two years.
The Director General of Economic and Fiscal Strategy at the Ministry of Finance explained that the improvement was driven by a surge in new orders accompanied by significant production growth.
Manufacturing PMI figures among several of Indonesia’s key trading partners also showed expansionary trends, including Vietnam (54.3), Thailand (53.5), India (57.5), Japan (53.0), and the United States (51.2), supporting prospects for Indonesia’s manufacturing exports.“Domestic economic resilience is an important foundation amid a dynamic global situation,” said Febrio in an official statement quoted Monday (March 2, 2026).
Febrio added that the positive sentiment was also supported by strengthening domestic demand.
In January 2026, the Real Sales Index (IPR) grew 7.9% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of food and beverages, clothing, and higher public mobility.
Public optimism also remained strong, reflected in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for January 2026, which stood at an optimistic level of 127, up from 123.5 in the previous month.“Strengthening consumption is also reflected in positive motor vehicle sales, with motorcycle sales rising 3.1% and car sales growing 7.0%,” he said.
Meanwhile, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of US$0.95 billion, supported by export performance reaching US$22.16 billion, growing 3.39% year-on-year, mainly driven by non-oil and gas exports.
Non-oil exports were supported by the manufacturing sector, which grew 8.19% year-on-year, particularly palm oil, nickel, iron and steel, as well as higher value-added commodities such as automotive and electronics products.
Imports reached US$21.20 billion, increasing 18.21% year-on-year, largely driven by higher imports of raw materials and capital goods, in line with rising domestic production activity and investment.
From a global perspective, risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East will continue to be closely monitored, particularly following attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran on February 28, 2026, followed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Febrio explained that potential disruptions to global supply chains — especially energy and oil supplies — along with increased volatility in global financial markets, remain major concerns.
Global trade tensions also pose risks to Indonesia’s export performance through weaker external demand and rising logistics costs.
“The government continues to closely monitor global geopolitical dynamics and various risks that may affect the national economy,” Febrio said.
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