our military situation relative to these PGCC countries is much better than our situation relative to Israel
the single biggest difference is that our SRBMs have good accuracy for tactical level operations, and this totally changes everything
we had to fire 200 missiles to hit 5-6 buildings in Israel in TP2. these PGCC countries lack the air defences of Israel and any missile that gets through has a > 50% chance of hitting the target accurately. not to mention SRBMs are obviously cheaper and easier to produce in bigger numbers.
PGCC also haven't infiltrated Iran with spies to conduct covert operations to destroy key radar / AD sites in advance of sending air force.
You think IR suddenly becomes a superpower the moment the opponent isnt Israel. Thats not how reality works. The entire PGCC air force combined would put the IRGC-AF on its knees in days. Look at their inventory. Its public information.
They will dominate the skies exactly the same way Israel did. No difference. The IRIAF/IRGCAF wont even get a chance to breathe.
And about the SRBMs. These PGCC countries are plugged directly into the US military network and the US will intercept those missiles with destroyers, land based AD systems and whatever else they need. The moment things reach a tipping point you will see the US moving military assets into the region to protect them.
Since Iran is facing the PGCC countries directly the US and PGCC would have zero obstacles reaching Iran. Unlike Israel they dont need to fly over several countries just to get close. They are literally right across the water with a straight shot at every major target within Iran.
So the bottom line is this ; even if Iran faced the PGCC alone the situation already heavily favors the PGCC. Their air forces would dominate the skies and dictate the entire course of the war.
But the real problem is....you actually think the US is going to sit back and let these wealthy Arab economies get chewed up by IRGC missiles. Wrong. The second things get serious the US steps in directly and once the US is involved its over.
Lets say IR starts firing missiles at tall Arab buildings and somehow the US stays out of it. Even then the US only needs to do one thing to tilt the entire balance in the PGCCs favor: Intelligence sharing.
The US already has Irans air defense layout mapped from years of satellite imaging... surveillance flights and monitoring. They have the locations, capabilities, and weaknesses of Irans radar sites, SAM coverage, early warning systems, and air bases.
Thats why I keep saying IR has no chance here. I honestly dont understand why people fall into the same IR propaganda loop over and over again. Just a few months ago the IR got humbled and now suddenly people are back to thinking IR can somehow walk out victorious in any war.
Yes, IR will manage to wreak havoc and disrupt their economies but at what cost to Iran? The latter is very very important.