Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

The main leverage they have is controlling the output of oil in the strait of Hormuz. Oil exports have definitely dropped. That is leverage and they definitely have not lost it.

If you think US is the only one who can circumvent through this, then so can Iran. So is not exactly losing leverage because Iran is adapting as well.



You focus on black or white scenario yet casually ignoring the grey region that exist. "American bad faith" as you put is actually negotiations to buy time. Iran has already experienced this last year, and even way before that when they tore up the JCPOA. Of course Iran is not going to be stupid to fall for that same trap again and they know where exactly US interest lies.



Which is why I mentioned minimal economic activity. No doubt a super tanker will be the optimal scenario. But that doesn't mean they cannot adapt and sell its oil. There is always a way and Iran is still far from cracking yet. US itself has a very big problem of maintaining that blockade on a longer term. Like I mention, Iran has time on itself and US doesn't.





Don't put words in my mouth. I did not claim unlimited leverage. They have a very strong leverage and it's geography is already extremely advantageous to it. It's not going to be removed unless Iran specifically decides to surrender.

If you claim Iran's strikes are just retaliatory, then the same can be same about US. They are unable to deter Iran from launching its counter-attacks either on the exporting ships or its bases.

And yes, it's overall position is declining as well because they have completely no answers to Iran's capability, which has been thought out for decades.





You are entitled to your opinion and that's fair enough. However, my argument to you is this? Even if Iran had cash in on those terms, what makes you think that agreement would prevent US from ripping it up and proceeding to attack Iran again in a distant future? Jun'25 only emboldened Trump to go for Feb'26. To frame it as a mistake, is actually enveloped with a lack of foresight. There was nothing that could have guaranteed peace. Iran's strategy right now is to hold out till the next president takes charge.

We are going in circles now. I never claimed hormuz had stopped being leverage or that any agreement guaranteed permanent peace. My point is that the value of leverage changes, and iran failed to cash it in when its position was better.

Iranian crude loadings falling from around 2 million barrels per day to roughly 220,000. Iran can still hurt global oil markets, but it is also choking its own main source of foreign currency.

And you demand a guarantee that the US would honour an agreement, while presenting “wait for the next president” as a strategy. What guarantee is there that the next president will offer better terms or reverse course? Trump remains in office until January 2029, while Iran is paying the economic cost today.

Iran may still eventually obtain a favourable outcome. That does not change my argument that it passed up a better opportunity earlier. Future possibilities do not erase past miscalculations.

I cannot argue same point again and again, so this will be the last message on this line of argument from me.
 
We are going in circles now. I never claimed hormuz had stopped being leverage or that any agreement guaranteed permanent peace. My point is that the value of leverage changes, and iran failed to cash it in when its position was better.

Yes we are going in circles. I vividly told you that it doesn't matter which position Iran is in. US will not honour its words and strike Iran in the end.

Iranian crude loadings falling from around 2 million barrels per day to roughly 220,000. Iran can still hurt global oil markets, but it is also choking its own main source of foreign currency.

Any drop in exports will hurt any nation. But is it enough to completely derail and subject Iran to surrender? Only time will tell. However Iran has went through decades of sanctions, so this is not something exactly new.

And you demand a guarantee that the US would honour an agreement, while presenting “wait for the next president” as a strategy. What guarantee is there that the next president will offer better terms or reverse course? Trump remains in office until January 2029, while Iran is paying the economic cost today.

Nice. Side stepping my question with another question. But since you ask here is the answer.

I quoted you Jimmy Carter's time when Iran held US citizens hostages. Iran just had to wait until Reagan came in and an agreement was made.

Again sanctions on Iran is not going to cause it to collapse as long as Iran still has access to China and Russia's market. The days of US completely starving nations off open markets is over.

Iran may still eventually obtain a favourable outcome. That does not change my argument that it passed up a better opportunity earlier. Future possibilities do not erase past miscalculations.

The problem is you are seeing it through the lense of a miscalculation where it is obviously not a miscalculation at all.

Instead, it was US decision to shred off the MOU and attack Iran to gain better leverage in the deal, while not honouring it's end.


I cannot argue same point again and again, so this will be the last message on this line of argument from me.

If you can't address the fundamental flaws raised by my questions, that' is entirely your choice to answer. In the end, my goal isn't to convince you, but to highlight where your reasoning falls short.
 
You are by far the most delusional person lol. Each and single post of yours is a good dose of laughter only. I can't understand how one can be so afraid of truth and don't want to accept the reality.

Do you think US military was escorting Iranian tankers from PG during these last so many weeks? lol. Iran cannot sell a pint of oil without US approval and that's a reality and only people with integrity can accept this reality. Blind followers/worshippers do not have integrity enough to accept the facts. Also there is open data available that lots of tankers of others passed from SOH in last few weeks with US escorts. That is reason why US is getting so much bold and hitting targets inside Iran every now and then.

The achievement of Iran is that its still able to fire missiles even after such relentless bombing campaign of US & Israel for first 40 days and then in phase-2. But don't take firing missiles as "Iran running da show" lol. US navy blockade is effectively running the show that who passes through SOH. If Iran is able to hit and sink US navy ships parked outside Iran then you can say that yes Iran is running the show.
If you believe fox news then its all good down at the SOH.
 

U.S. Strikes May Have Targeted a New Type of Iranian Naval Mine​

The U.S. military said its attacks against Iran were in response to a threat to the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. airstrikes against Iran overnight Monday targeted two Iranian rocket launchers that the military said could have dispensed small naval mines.
But such a weapon — an artillery rocket that releases a mine into the water — would be unusual and could mean that Iran has created yet another way to potentially cause chaos in the Strait of Hormuz.

“Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into Strait of Hormuz,” said Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command, which directs military operations in the Middle East.
After the strikes, the first acknowledged attacks on Iran since July 29, Iran fired a barrage of medium-range ballistic missiles at bases in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates that host U.S. troops. There were no reports of damage or casualties from the Iranian counterattack.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil flows to the marketplace via tankers, has been under constant threat since the United States and Israel launched a combined assault against Iran on Feb. 28.
The war has forced many shipping companies to bypass the strait. Saudi Arabia, the region’s biggest oil producer, has shifted to export more crude via the Red Sea.
Iran has long been known to maintain a robust arsenal of naval mines of various types, from small limpet mines that are attached to a ship’s hull by swimmers, to far larger weapons deployed by boats or ships that can potentially sink a targeted vessel. But little is publicly known about Iran’s land-based rocket-delivered mines.

It was not possible to confirm the military’s report independently, but it would mean that Iran has added a new type of mine to its arsenal — though probably not a very powerful one.
In March, U.S. intelligence officials reported that Iran had laid a number of mines in the strait. On Aug. 25, President Trump said in a social media post that all naval mines in the strait had been cleared from “International Waters” — probably a reference to the traditional route through the strait that commercial ships have had access to for decades under international law.

The Maritime Executive, a shipping and maritime industry news outlet, reported in January 2025 that during military exercises at sea, Iran had demonstrated a variant of its Fajr-5 rocket that could dispense “a single free-floating mine” into the water.
Such a weapon would not cause much damage to merchant ships in the region, many of which are double-hulled tankers that are designed to sustain punctures without leaking their payload of oil.

It could, however, pose a more substantial threat to small fishing boats operating in the Persian Gulf.

The Fajr-5 would be able to carry a mine that is no wider than the rocket’s 333-millimeter diameter and contains perhaps just dozens of pounds of explosives. By comparison, the mines of greatest concern contain many hundreds of pounds of explosives. Those mines are anchored in place and float just beneath the water, or lie on the seafloor.

The small mines described by Central Command could make a small hole in the hull of a warship and cause flooding in perhaps a single watertight compartment within the vessel.

These rocket-delivered munitions, or “drifting mines,” are pushed by winds and currents as soon as they land in the water. Each would eventually make its way into the open ocean or possibly wash up on shore, where it could harm anyone who picked one up.

In 2019, Iranian forces attached limpet mines to the hulls of oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, some of which exploded and caused minor damage, according to the U.S. military. But since the war began in February, Central Command has not provided details about which kinds of mines it has cleared from the Strait of Hormuz, nor how many.
 

U.S. Strikes May Have Targeted a New Type of Iranian Naval Mine​

The U.S. military said its attacks against Iran were in response to a threat to the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. airstrikes against Iran overnight Monday targeted two Iranian rocket launchers that the military said could have dispensed small naval mines.
But such a weapon — an artillery rocket that releases a mine into the water — would be unusual and could mean that Iran has created yet another way to potentially cause chaos in the Strait of Hormuz.

“Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into Strait of Hormuz,” said Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command, which directs military operations in the Middle East.
After the strikes, the first acknowledged attacks on Iran since July 29, Iran fired a barrage of medium-range ballistic missiles at bases in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates that host U.S. troops. There were no reports of damage or casualties from the Iranian counterattack.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil flows to the marketplace via tankers, has been under constant threat since the United States and Israel launched a combined assault against Iran on Feb. 28.
The war has forced many shipping companies to bypass the strait. Saudi Arabia, the region’s biggest oil producer, has shifted to export more crude via the Red Sea.
Iran has long been known to maintain a robust arsenal of naval mines of various types, from small limpet mines that are attached to a ship’s hull by swimmers, to far larger weapons deployed by boats or ships that can potentially sink a targeted vessel. But little is publicly known about Iran’s land-based rocket-delivered mines.

It was not possible to confirm the military’s report independently, but it would mean that Iran has added a new type of mine to its arsenal — though probably not a very powerful one.
In March, U.S. intelligence officials reported that Iran had laid a number of mines in the strait. On Aug. 25, President Trump said in a social media post that all naval mines in the strait had been cleared from “International Waters” — probably a reference to the traditional route through the strait that commercial ships have had access to for decades under international law.

The Maritime Executive, a shipping and maritime industry news outlet, reported in January 2025 that during military exercises at sea, Iran had demonstrated a variant of its Fajr-5 rocket that could dispense “a single free-floating mine” into the water.
Such a weapon would not cause much damage to merchant ships in the region, many of which are double-hulled tankers that are designed to sustain punctures without leaking their payload of oil.

It could, however, pose a more substantial threat to small fishing boats operating in the Persian Gulf.

The Fajr-5 would be able to carry a mine that is no wider than the rocket’s 333-millimeter diameter and contains perhaps just dozens of pounds of explosives. By comparison, the mines of greatest concern contain many hundreds of pounds of explosives. Those mines are anchored in place and float just beneath the water, or lie on the seafloor.

The small mines described by Central Command could make a small hole in the hull of a warship and cause flooding in perhaps a single watertight compartment within the vessel.

These rocket-delivered munitions, or “drifting mines,” are pushed by winds and currents as soon as they land in the water. Each would eventually make its way into the open ocean or possibly wash up on shore, where it could harm anyone who picked one up.

In 2019, Iranian forces attached limpet mines to the hulls of oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, some of which exploded and caused minor damage, according to the U.S. military. But since the war began in February, Central Command has not provided details about which kinds of mines it has cleared from the Strait of Hormuz, nor how many.

Alternative delivery methods can also be developed in my opinion. Maybe a single limpet mine can be attached-dropped to Hurmuz by a shaheed-136 derivative. shaheed would alse be reusable if it returns back and recovered by parachute.. New variants have 90kg carriage capacity. Airframe can be modified to carry and drop the sea mine over target. Or it can be attached above the drone just like Russians did with R60 a2a missile and the mine can be dropped mechanically over target while drone rolls sideways and turns.


Shaheeds can be launched from longer ranges from deep inside Iran. Each drone can carry a single mine and less efficient than a rocket but longer range and reusability.
 
If you believe fox news then its all good down at the SOH.

Why don't you open your eyes and look at open source data, and several others sources. There's clearly export of oil happening via SOH (though in less frequency from pre-war). But absolute ZERO oil exports by Iran in last one month.

That excuse of "fox news" won't work anymore.
 

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