US might strike Iran's Fordow enrichment plant this weekend or next week.
Trump believes that they can take out Fordow and entire Iran's nuclear program and get away with it after fighting a short war with insignificant consequences for US.
Iran's response options to destruction of Fordow:
1) Target US military bases in the region - but US has already evacuated its bases or dispersed its personell so such strikes will be ineffective.
2) Attack oil tankers of US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, South Korea and Japan in the Persian Gulf - but in this case Iran will be seen as an unprovoked aggressor and such strikes will legitimize formation of Anti-Iran coalition than will include all the above mentioned countries.
3) Attack Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari and UAE oil infrastructure - but this will be seen as an act of unprovoked aggression by Iran against states that are not part of the conflict. Also Saudi Arabia and UAE do have Air Forces that can do damage to Iran.
4) Leave NPT and expel all IAEA inspectors - this will certainly happen and Iran's nuclear program will go underground and eventually end with Iran testing a nuclear bomb - leaving NPT will also be legitimate since Iran has become a victim of unprovoked aggression by US and Israel.
5) Mine the Strait of Hormuz - since Iran can't attack evacuated US bases, can't attack Persian Gulf oil infrastructure and can't attack oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, its best options are leaving NPT and peacefully mining the Strait of Hormuz within 24-48 hours after US strike.
Mining the Strait of Hormuz will be viewed as a legitime Iranian response to unprovoked US aggression with all the consequences of it being blamed on US and Israel.
After mining the Strait of Hormuz Iran should say:
1) Nobody will be allowed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz earlier than 1 year after its closure which will be blamed on Israel and Trump who will be held responsible for the oil crisis.
2) If US tries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, Iran will only then respond by targeting first Kuwaiti, second Qatari, third UAE and fourth Saudi oil infrastructure - in this case Iranian attacks against Persian Gulf oil infrastructure will be seen not as an act of aggression but as a response to Trump's actions with Trump being held responsible for the destruction.
3) If US strikes economic targets in Iran, only then Iran will respond by targeting first Kuwaiti, second Qatari, third UAE and fourth Saudi oil infrastructure - in this case Iranian attacks against Persian Gulf oil infrastructure will be seen not as an act of aggression but as a response to Trump's actions with Trump being held responsible for the destruction.
Trump's options after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz:
1) Wait for 1 year when Iran will allow to reopen the Strait of Hormuz - but during this period US and EU economies will suffer irreparable damage - price they have to pay for their unprovoked aggression.
2) Try to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force - but this will escalate the conflict and result in Iran attacking Persian Gulf oil infrastructure doing even more damage because rebuilding Gulf oil facilities can take 4-7 years and Trump will be blamed for the damage.
3) Attack Iran's economic infrastructure - but this will escalate the conflict and result in Iran attacking Persian Gulf oil infrastructure doing even more damage because rebuilding Gulf oil facilities can take 4-7 years and Trump will be blamed for the damage.
Also US won't be able to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, because Iran can target minesweepers and oil tankers with Shahed-238 drones, unmanned surface vehicles, unmanned underwater vehicles, anti-ship cruise missiles and anti-ship ballistic missiles and US airpower cant suppress that as it is evident by the recent example of US bombing of Houthis in Yemen.
But Iran should be careful. After striking Fordow, US can try to prevent mining of the Strait of Hormuz with fighters preventively bombing Iran's naval bases and drones taking out speedboats that can lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz.